Outlook 2008

Outlook 2008

Here is my outlook for 2008, recorded December 21, 2007.

Overview – 2008 will be a year that feels like a whip-saw. Promising innovations. Economic turmoil. Large events

The Economy 2008 – Paradoxes

2008 will be one of paradox, innovation balanced by turmoil. Because of the tremendous interconnectivity of researchers, the availability of money for innovation investment, the technical tools available, and the urgency of certain needs, there will be more opportunity for innovation in 2008 than ever. Innovation is needed in energy, in health care, and in so many fields. But, innovation will be balanced or held back by turmoil in the financial markets. Some 2 million more “teaser rate” mortgages will re-set in the next 18 months. The resulting debt crisis is not near its end, not even near the mid-point, but still in its early stages. One estimate is that 5.6 million home owners in the U.S. are upside-down, owing more than their house is worth. If prices fall another 10-20%, as some predict, then perhaps 10 million home owners will go upside-down. This would drive losses from $100 billion to nearer a trillion dollars.

Globally, China will continue to grow at a rapid rate, 10-12% per year. It will attract increasing investment and become more of an innovation center.

2008 will also see income disparity come to the fore as a social and political issue. The nature of the current economy is such that small groups of highly creative people can reap super rewards, while the large middle class sees little progress

Technology 2008 – Nano + Solar

The hottest tech areas in 2008 will be nano plus solar. Nanotechnology, particularly the work being done with nanotech batteries, will stand out. AltairNano will ship a 20MW stationary battery in 2008. Nanobatteries will impact the introduction of plug-in electric cars in 2008, and the supply of electric cars from Phoenix, Tesla and others will fall far short of demand. AltairNano will debut an electric garbage truck. In the field of solar, NanoSolar will, according to reports, complete its fabrication plant for printing thin-film solar cells, enough of them to be equivalent to a third to a half a nuclear plant per year.

Nanotech will also impact water filtration. Seldon Tech is using carbon nanotubes to manufacture water filters, actually printed on old newspaper equipment. The carbon nanotubes used to cost hundreds of dollars an ounce, but now have come down to 20 cents an ounce. The Seldon Tech water straw will appear in early 2008.

Beyond nano and solar, the IT development of note in the U.S. will be fiber to the home. Verizon’s FIOS product will challenge the cable franchises to move from the “triple play” (TV, phone, internet) to a quadruple (TV, phone, internet, wireless) or quintuple play (TV, phone, internet, wireless, home management). The question will be whether consumers want all these things bundled for convenience, or whether they care.

Energy 2008 – Oil Rising

As 2007 came to a close, oil was at about $95 a barrel. Some experts predict a dramatic price decline in 2008, following historical patterns. We disagree. The new floor price is about $90, and we will see $100 in 2008, and as much as $140-150 by mid-year. Why? Increasing global demand from countries like China and India, an obvious development. But the real hidden force is increasing demand in the oil producing nations. In fact, the key metric to watch is not oil production but oil exports. Countries like Russia, Venezuela, and Mexico see their exports falling faster than their production, as they use more internally. The same is true in Saudi Arabia. Oil prices are not coming back, and 2008 is the year we realize this is true.

[I recorded the video on December 21, 2007- and oil hit $100 on January 2, 2008.]

[Second Note: Oil hit $140 on June 26, 2008.]

Environment 2008 – The Big Stall

2007 was the year of the turning point as regards the global climate crisis. Thanks to Al Gore and the IPCC, co-winners of the Nobel Prize, even the die-hards like the U.S. President now acknowledge that global warming is real. But, will 2008 then become the year of action? No, not yet. Instead it will be the year of the big stall, as debate rages about what to do, and mostly all of the relevant institutions and decision makers have to wait until the U.S. administration turns over. We will see private initiatives in energy and transportation, but concerted global action will wait another year.

Population and Venture Capital 2008 – Oh to be Young

The leading edge of the digital native generation is now 18-25 or so. The first generation to grow up in the personal computing and internet age is now at work. The venture capital world increasingly focuses on this generation, the very young creatives, for the breakthrough ideas. Thus 2008 marks a change-over to the next generation for innovation leadership.

Wildcard 2008 – Iraq and McCain

I once heard Alvin Toffler say that predicting likely trends is of less value than is anticipating unlikely events that would really change things if they happened. The wild cards, in other words. Here is my wildcard for 2008: calm in Iraq, not just the level of violence but actual political reconciliation. Were this to happen, in time, the odds for John McCain becoming the Republican nominee, and later being elected U.S. President increase greatly. If four more years of Republican rule resulted, then progressive policy change in health care, taxes, and to a lesser degree the environment and energy becomes much less likely. Another wildcard may scuttle this possibility, regardless of Iraq. That is immigration. Conventional wisdom says a candidate must demonstrate an anti-immigrant stance to be elected. However, the large Latino vote in the U.S. could turn this assumption upside down, and thus work against a McCain win.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Glen Hiemstra

About Glen Hiemstra

Glen Hiemstra is the founder and owner of Futurist.com. An internationally respected expert on future trends, long-range planning and creating the preferred future, Glen has advised professional, business, and governmental organizations for two decades.

6 Comments

  1. Mark Safford   |   Jan 24, 2008

    Hi Glen –

    I watched your Outlook 2008 with great interest. As always, you have a way of synthesizing and summarizing an array of trends in a manner that makes them coherent and meaningful. I would offer two specific comments on aspects of your report.

    First, you are right on target with your observation that the oil producing nations are also becoming much bigger oil users. One key reason is that countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia keep the price of gasoline ridiculously low as a form of social welfare/social calming for their populations. It would not surprise me if at least some of these nations started taking more determined steps in 2008 to limit this extravagant use of their very valuable resource by letting the domestic price of gasoline rise to much higher levels. Not only would the government’s revenues increase, but they would have more oil to export.

    Second, you are I believe correct in predicting that a John McCain Presidency in 2009 would be a setback for many progressive causes. However, McCain is the most environmentally-sensitive of the Republican candidates by far. He has assumed the same perspective as Teddy Roosevelt did in seeing us as “stewards” of the Earth with a responsibility to protect it for future generations. He believes global warming is man-made, real, and a threat, and he supports reductions in carbon emissions. If he were elected he could very well surprise us with his policies in energy and the environment. (And I do not say this as a McCain supporter – let’s say that to me he is by far the Republican whose election in 2008 would worry me the least.)

  2. Tim   |   Jan 5, 2008

    People speak of the environment and “doing” something but action just for action sake is pointless. Let’s take hybrid cars. Yes, the emit less CO2 and use less gas. But there’s also a pollution downside, in the manufacture of the batteries, energy used in shipping costs to bring components together to manufacture, battery disposal or reprosessing at the end of their useful life, etc. So the simplistic version is “Well I have a hybrid, I’m doing good.” Perhaps not so much. Look at my home state of Kansas. The govenor just recently denied a new coal plant construction. Too much pollution. Okay, fine. In this same area, they are wanting to put up wind farms. But wait, no can’t do that–the environmentalists have halted most of these projects– say they are an eyesore, they disrupt bird migration, etc. So we can’t use coal, we can’t use petroleum, we can’t use wind farms—exactly where would they like us to get power? I have no problem in wanting to be environmentally friendly, but you can’t deny all options in doing so. Most of the plans put forward for “global warming” have little basis in fact regarding their efficacy and appear to me to be a lot of feel good measures with little substance. I suppose we have to start somewhere but good intentions alone are usually not helpful.

  3. Glen Hiemstra   |   Jan 3, 2008

    Michael,

    I took a quick look at the blog site you suggest, excellent discussion of visions for 2050 there. The comments you garnered are interesting.

    I am sure you read Jim Kunstler’s blog, at http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/ He has his own review of 2008 up there now, and of course his perspective is that the “long emergency” will overwhelm our resilience.

    Much to do, but little time.

    As for the wildcards (Iraq, McCain), as I emphasize in the video I do think they are wild. But, you never know.

  4. Michael   |   Jan 3, 2008

    Calm in Iraq and McCain for the nominee? Wildcards indeed.

    I agree that climate is the biggest issue that won’t get enough attention this year.

    Over at climateprogress.org they are trying to imagine the future, too. Up to 2050. Politics and the environment are the big trends.

    http://climateprogress.org/2007/11/30/global-warming-prediction-presidential-politics/