Future of Retailing Now

I'm preparing a program I'll be delivering next month for RetailNOW, the conference trade show for the Retail Solutions Providers Association.

A bellweather sector, the retail industry supplies important information on the progression of the economic downturn. How is one of its main providers heading into its annual industry event?

Evidently with some hopeful expectation. The organization president, J. Joseph Finizio, blogs this week about the projected increase in attendance over 2008. Exhibitor numbers are holding steady and may exceed last year as well.

In this industry, like so many others, advantages are gained at the bottom of the cycle. While it's always hard to pinpoint exactly when things will begin to turn around, we may read some optimism in RetailNOW. At the very least, their numbers indicate an industry-wide committment to increasing key capacities during the downtime. At best, they may be pointing to the early indications of an upswing.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future Tech for Livable Community and Homes

Archi-Tech Magazine has a nice feature on "Future Tech" in our buildings and homes and neighborhoods, based on some interviews with futurists, including me.

ARCHI-TECH asked several futurists and forward-thinking designers to tell us which technologies and trends are most likely to have a significant effect on the building industry in the future, both short and long term.

What did we see on the horizon?

Smaller is better - look for home size (finally) to begin to shrink for many reasons
Prefab is fab - manufacturing becomes the norm and architecture becomes flexible
Nano is now - including nano-concrete
Green grows - like organic light emitting diodes
And keeps growing - like "living systems" closed-loop water strategies
Walking into the future - placing homes within walkable communities

Good short read.

65,000 is a lot for one day

Readers know that I am pretty relentless in finding how and why things are going to work in the future. Current realties make that a challenge. Today's announcement by Caterpillar, Home Depot, Sprint, Texas Instruments, and others of total job cuts, just today, Monday, of 65,000 is stark.

It means that time grows shorter by the day, really, to take action on the U.S., and by extension, the global economy. In their columns or blogs today, both Paul Krugman and James Kunstler help us to understand the options. Krugman explains why fiscal stimulus is the best, nearly the only positive action possible right now. Kunstler explains, as he does almost every week, that what is ahead is not merely a few policy adjustments to get back to an old reality, but rather the beginning of a long-term process of shifting our priorities and life styles to adjust to new economic and energy realities.

Let's call on the U.S. Congress to step up to the challenge, and not devolve into snafus.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

SpaceX Successful Launch to Earth Orbit

We all would like some good news about the future. Here is some.

One of the most impressive people I have met is Elon Musk, whom I have seen at Future In Review conferences. He was founder of PayPal as well as Zip2 Corporation, and after selling them poured his efforts and money into two primary endeavors, the all-electric car company Tesla Motors, and a private space launch company, SpaceX.

When I heard Elon a couple of years ago as SpaceX was nearing its test flights, he sounded to me like my mentor as a futurist and speaker, Ed Lindaman, who had been director of program planning for Apollo. In other words, Elon sounded like a space guy as he talked enthusiastically and confidently about how his company would achieve the first private launches into orbit, and eventually would lead the way to Mars.

Here is the good news, amazing news really. Late last month, SpaceX successfully launched the first private, liquid-fuel rocket into earth orbit. It carried a dummy payload, and demonstrated the tremendous progress that SpaceX has made in a few short years. You can watch the inspiring video of the launch here.

In the very long run humans will become a space-faring civilization, far beyond our efforts so far. This is our real destiny.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Light Visible in Financial Tunnel

Mark Anderson is a friend and colleague, and probably the smartest person I know personally. He is long-time publisher of the most widely read online newsletter on the future of the tech economy, Strategic News Service. His organization also produces the number one future and technology conference each year, Future In Review.

Mark has been tracking, as have we all, the current financial and economic crisis. I do not always agree with his entire analysis, but believe he is on the right track with this assessment of where we are now. Today he sent out a special alert to his newsletter list, saying that the pieces now appear to be in place to mark the turning point in the financial crisis. He says he is not calling a "bottom," but he does believe that we are in better position to begin the long process of recovery.

A few excerpts, with Mark's permission:

It is not my intention by this alert to "call a bottom." But I think the steps taken in the last 24 hours by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, and other global financial leaders, have put into place essentially all of the pieces necessary for a turnaround in global market stability...

The concerted move by the Fed, in conjunction with banks from China, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, China and the ECB, among others, showed, for the first time in history, that a concerted action was possible. Coming on the heels of outright stupid squabbling between France, Germany and Italy, yesterday, this action put matters that matter front and forward: country national banks will act in the best interest of global stability, and not according to local politics...

The speech by Hank Paulson today at noon was, I think, a masterful and reassuring rundown of all of the various protections and plans put into place over the last week. He emphasized speed, transparency, and quality of decisions, and these seem clear to me. Naysayers will have their shot, but I believe no one today could be doing a better job.

During questions, Paulson was asked about McCain's proposal to buy mortgages directly, and he noted that the Treasury already has this in plan and power, so it is already among his current portfolio of tools...

Of course, problems remain: banks must turn their lending policies back on, central bankers must move from worrying about global and local liquidity to the proper allocation of capital with their systems, short sellers are about to be let out again in the financial arena, and no real prevention against "vampire" investing (taking profits without contributing to the system) is in place.

I might add that in the much longer term we are going to have to adjust the housing market in the United States in such a way that what is built better matches what average customers can afford and what will be needed given future demographics, something which has definitely not been happening. That is a large project of adjusting the construction and real estate industries, and re-thinking community policies. But with continued smart policy we might just get to do that.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.