Yesterday marked the death of Senator Edward Kennedy. This event turned my attention even more to the subject of health care reform in the United States. Early in the year, responding to Time Magazine, I suggested that health care reform was a fundamental innovation to help move us beyond the recession. I have little doubt that is true.
So, in a longer-than-blog-length article, I outline my experience and prediction regarding health care reform in the U.S. My prediction?
Prediction:
Health care reform with all four of the features I list will pass the House and the Senate. The House version will have a stronge public option, the Senate version a weaker one. The President will be forced to indicate his preference and he will side with a stronger public option, which will come out of conference committee. The house will pass it in a party line vote, the Senate will pass it in a near party line vote after parliamentary maneuvers allow a majority rather than a super majority vote. It may take until November but more likely will be done sooner.
This is almost inevitable, virtually guaranteed, no matter what you read or see in the press on a given day.
Before this day, the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing on the moon, is over, I want to recognize a person who played such a key role in that endeavor, Ed Lindaman, director of program planning for Apollo at Rockwell. The fact that Ed was the inspiration and mentor who led me to become a professional futurist is secondary to the reason I recognize him today. Rather it is for his role in Apollo.
As I write, I am watching on the TV (C-Span) Buzz Aldrin as he speaks (recorded) to the anniversary event last night at the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum about our future in space. Preceding him was Kris Kraft, who was also a key leader in Apollo. They both go out of their way to recognize the thousands of people who worked in the design studios and the manufacturing floors to accomplish the mission.
Here is a story that Ed used to tell. As they worked on Apollo at Rockwell he instituted a closed-circuit TV program within the company. Each week or each day Ed would go personally to interview someone working on the project – say a person placing screws into the module. Ed would explain how this small act was critical to getting to the moon – instilling in each person a sense of personal mission. He always felt that was one of the most important things he did as director.
Aldrin in his speech just now pointed out that it was 66 years from the Wright brothers first flight to the landing on the moon. From July 20, 1969 if we add another 66 years it will be 2035, and Aldrin advocates missions to asteroids and to Mars by then. Third up is Michael Collins, Command Module pilot. He is also advocating Mars, and points out that when they went to the moon the Earth population was only 3 billion, compared to over 6 billion now, and he calls for better treatment of the planet as he also advocates for space.
When Armstrong and Aldrin landed that day in 1969, I was life guarding at Rooster Rock state park on the Columbia River. I made sure the radio broadcast was sent over the public address system, and we all listened on the beach as Eagle landed. Later I watched the replay with Walter Cronkite. It was a special day.
On Monday I was in Las Vegas to address the annual meeting of the Retail Service Providers Association, and to moderate a panel on “thinking outside the retail box.” The RSPA issues these press notices and articles. As soon as I can I will get a summary of my talk posted here, and the slides posted at SlideShare. Watch for that later.
Google News Alert for: Glen Hiemstra – The Future of Retail
Thinking Outside The Retail Box
Business Solutions Magazine – Erie,Pennsylvania,USA
Glen Hiemstra, futurist and author, moderated the panel, and asked me what opportunities I’m hearing about from the many VARs and vendors I speak to on a …
Photos From RetailNOW 2009 – Monday
Business Solutions Magazine – Erie,Pennsylvania,USA
(LR) David Hwang, Managed Data Group; Fred Fischer, Ganymede; Alan Outlaw, IBM; Mike Monocello, Business Solutions Magazine; and moderator Glen Hiemstra (in photo 3 of 3). These were my outstanding panel members.
RetailNOW 2009 Keynote Provides Glimpse Of Future
Business Solutions Magazine – Erie,Pennsylvania,USA
In his keynote address Monday morning at RSPA RetailNOW 2009, futurist Glen Hiemstra provided an in-depth look at the US economy. … (a summary of my keynote speech).
Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.
Just to let you know I spent the last two days in planning sessions, for the next Future In Review (FiRe) conference May 11-14, 2010 in Palos Verdes and also for a first-time ever FiRe Global Westcoast conference set for October 15, 2009 in Seattle.
Both events will be a mix of tech futures and conversations about how to use technology to help address major local and global issues. We will keep you updated as the planning continues, but whether you have participated in a FiRe conference before or not, you may want to pay attention to these two upcoming events. As a futurist I find them among the best things I do each year.
Someday the net will enable robust, shared 3D experiences.
Someday robust, shared 3D experiences will be secure and stable.
Someday robust, shared 3D experiences that are secure and stable will be relatively simple to produce using mostly off-the-shelf and familiar tools.
Someday robust, shared 3D experiences that are secure and stable, created with off-the-shelf, familiar tools will produce income for those who create them, and those who enable that creation.
Someday robust, shared 3D experiences that are secure and stable and that produce income for creators and enablers will take us to the next level in learning, gaming, and shared online experience.
I met Jim Sink, VP for Business Development for Avatar Reality when I interviewed him as he represented his company as a “Fire Starter” at the annual SNS Future In Review Conference. Later, I lunched with Jim and the company co-founder Henk Rogers (of Tetris fame), and science fiction writer Brenda Cooper, and we discussed the future of virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the truly exciting vistas now being opened by faster internet connections and standard processer and graphics boards now capable of running high-end 3D experiences.
Then, last week while in Honolulu to speak on the future of travel and tourism, I took advantage of being there and Jim was kind enough to host an hour-long visit to the offices of Avatar Reality where they are creating Blue Mars, the next big thing in shared, immersive 3D experience on the web. Even though I am familiar with the dreams driving this kind of development, from my years of association with the Human Interface Technology Lab at the University of Washington, I am very impressed with the direction that Blue Mars is taking, and cannot wait for the consumer beta to drop in August 2009.
Most of us are familiar with online worlds like World of Warcraft, or Second Life, each of which offers a kind of shared 3D experience. World of Warcraft has succeeded financially with a subsriber model, while Second Life has succeeded by building an internal economy of Linden dollars that correspond to real dollars, some $400 million exchanged in 2008 according to reports.
Blue Mars aims to take us to the next level, by differentiating in several ways. First, the graphics that will be the standard are near big-screen quality. Second, they have invited world developers into a cooperative, shared revenue model, that enables developers to use off-the-shelf graphics tools they are familiar with. Worlds are created off-line, then uploaded. Blue Mars is providing a developer platform with a variety of standard features, like shopping sites and stores, billboards that tie to websites and flash videos, gaming technologies, avatars that have super realism and movement, and clothing that flows and moves like the real thing. Interaction speeds will be very fast, because world elements are fixed and the system is set up in such a way that only elements in a scene that change will be updated in real time, meaning faster response times and a much lower load on the net itself. This increased world stability and fast speed will enable more players to be in a world together. For example, it is possible that many thousands of avatars may attend a stadium event in real time, something like a concert or rally.
World objects, created off-line and fixed at that point, are registered by Blue Mars before they are released into the world. Thus, IP is protected and worlds are more stable than others; only developers may change the world, and rouge community members will not be able to send unregistered objects flying into and sabotaging your scene. Worlds can also be walled from those who are not subscribers. Within worlds subscribers or users may rent their own homes or storefronts, and conduct social and business interactions as in similar online worlds, but again in a more secure way.
The revenue model will be a hybrid and sounds like a winner for Avatar, developers, and users alike. Many worlds will be available – I previewed one called New Venice.
You can watch video previews of Blue Mars features and worlds Blue Mars on YouTube.
Blue Mars Trailer (June 2009)
Blue Mars in Development
I have long anticipated the day that we could move to the next level of shared, immersive experience on the web. That someday has arrived.
Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.
