Futurist Speaker – Media Futurist Videos

Gerd Leonard, EU-based media futurist and I just got a nice notice for our video series in a blog called SkipVision, by David Potsiadlo. He links to all of our online videos about media futures and the forces impacting the future of media. He says,

Remember when you were a kid and used to think about the future? If you were like me, visions of the future were full of hoverboards, flying cars, and shiny chrome everything. There was no doubt the future would be awesome, even if it seemed forever away.

Things seem quite different as an adult, especially one living in the early 21st century. The future no longer waits quietly over the horizon, but is instead standing at the doorstep. At times, peering ahead one or two decades seems somewhat unfathomable, as our lives change so much with each passing year. How to put it all into perspective?

The solution is simple: turn to a media futurist!

Particularly, I speak of media futurists Gerd Leonhard and Glen Hiemstra, the work of whom has left me recently fascinated....

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Futurist Speaker Glen Hiemstra in Google News

This is just a quick note to alert you to two currently available articles that feature quotes from me, noted for me by Google news alerts.

The first is actually about China and the Beijing Olympics, "Beijing results serve food for thought," which appears in the blog at the WRAL TV station out of Raleigh Durham, NC. It is written by Barry Jacobs. Mr. Jacobs notes the successes, failures, and inherent contradictions that seem inevitable in a authoritarian yet capitalist state. He quotes an observation I made last week when speaking in North Carolina to the annual meeting of the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners, in New Bern, NC. I had described the success that China has had moving quickly to build high speed rail systems.

The second article, on the future of the economy, appears in the Richmond, VA Times-Dispatch. The writer, Emily Dooley, bases her assessment on interviews with several experts. She had explored with me in particular two of my major interest areas, the impact of an aging society, and the energy transition now underway. Ms. Dooley reaches an interesting conclusion, that we should expect a strong economy in five years. In my conversation with her I was a bit more cautious on that prediction, suggesting that the energy transition may not be an easy one, and that we may be in a period that is not quite like traditional business cycles.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of Energy – Glen Hiemstra in The Economist

The current issue of The Economist, August 16-22, 2008, on news stands now, features a paid special section entitled "The Future of Energy: Sustainability Rules in 2030." Comments from Futurist.com founder and futurist speaker Glen Hiemstra are prominently featured by the article author, writer Morey Stettner.

In this piece, sponsored by BP, the writer explores energy alternatives and likely developments by the year 2030. In the extended interview that contributed to the article, I discussed such concepts as advanced telecommunications and the impact on workplaces, the home and commuting by 2030, the fact that about 75% of our carbon footprint comes from agriculture and residential and commercial buildings, and world population growth. I suggested that nanotech solar will lead to a shift in energy production for homes and businesses, and that high speed train travel is a likely part of the future by 2030.

Mostly the article points out that a mix of energy sources, and a variety of infrastructure and life-style choices will be essential if we are to navigate to the next energy era. It seems quite a balanced piece for a sponsored "advertorial" and I was pleased to be a part of it.

You can find the piece in The Economist, August 16-22, 2008 issue, pages 32-33.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of Urban Living and Building – update

In a blog post last week we discussed an innovation in urban housing, and presented a video interview and tour. The full tour, in 4 video episodes, is now available.

The video series can also be seen at YouTube.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of Sustainable Affordable Housing – A Prototype

The future of housing in the United States, and the world, is one of the most important issues we face. In the U.S. housing has been hit with a perfect storm:

1. Demographic changes including an older population, smaller households, and a younger population with differing values – all of which mean a mismatch between what is built, and what is needed in the future.
2. High energy costs, and a need to reduce the carbon footprint, which again means a mismatch between what is built and what is needed.
3. High income inequality, and lower relative incomes for most of the population – which again means a mismatch between what is built, and what is needed in the future.

On a global scale, some regions of the world face similar issues, while others simply face a need for more housing in the face of population growth.

Confronting these needs is an industry historically slow to innovate or change. It seems apparent that new models of smaller, more affordable, high-volume production housing is needed.

Recently we had a chance to tour a model of such new housing, which was on display in downtown Seattle. We visited and taped an interview as the demonstration ended a several month run.

In the video which you can see below, we learned about the prototypes built for the Unico Properties Inhabit project . The two units on display were designed by a team of architects from Hybrid Seattle Architects and Mithun Architects, also of Seattle. The prototypes were manufactured in a factory, and displayed in downtown Seattle. The design was inspired by the concept of using shipping containers, though the units are all original construction.

We talked with Tammie Schacher, AIA LEED AP, and Principle in Mithun. Tammie was a lead in this design project. Mithun is among the international leaders in sustainable urban design, both residential and commercial. The firm originally caught our eye at Futurist.com because of their involvement in a sustainable, affordable housing project in Seattle called Highpoint, and also because of an award winning concept they developed for vertical agriculture in central cities.

Tammie had a great story to tell about the entire Unico Inhabit project. The prototype you will see, by the way, was just fully permitted for a 66-unit development in Seattle to be built in the coming months. The video interview and tour comes in 4 parts...

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

The video series can also be seen at YouTube.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of Engineering

In mid-July 2008 I had the privilege of conducting a think tank for the ASFE Emerging Issues and Trends Committee. ASFE is an association of engineering firms, with a focus on geotechnical engineering. The Committee is a standing group charged with anticipatory thinking on behalf of the association and its member firms.

We gathered in Chicago for a two-day think tank, in which we identified long term events, trends and developments, and developed preferred images of the future related to the primary themes we discovered.

Key driving forces were explored within the following domains:

• Resources – more distributed energy, food supply issues, water shortages, increased competition for raw materials..
• Global and National Economy – increased global interdependence, rise of Asia and Western decline, carbon trading, finite building material resources as demand increases.
• Sustainability – smart growth, concentrated density, mega-disasters, renewable energy focus, need to inspire more students into engineering.
• Infrastructure – water crisis, privatization of infrastructure, smart infrastructure materials, reduced business travel, increased urbanization.
• Science & Technology – advanced building & construction materials, data acquisition and analysis, smart buildings, telepresence, virtual travel, new computing change operations.

After exploring trends the committee members narrowed their analysis to the key changes anticipated in each domain, and developed preferred future response from the Association and members. Some highlights include:

• Resources – opportunities in local energy projects, water reclamation, infrastructure development.
• Global and National Economy - becoming more multicultural, development in Asia, global materials management, new materials development.
• Sustainability – getting involved in planning stages, new energy development, attracting new employees.
• Infrastructure – levee design, ethics related to whole systems thinking, changes in customer mix, life cycle costing, smart urban design.
• Science & Technology – fully integrated communication, embracing technologies, engineer involvement in smart material, building, and project design.

You can contact the ASFE for further information about their report. As I told the committee chair, Joni Powell, of Kleinfelder, this was the most creative and forward looking group of engineers I have had the pleasure to work with. They were eager to look further and think broadly about their preferred future.

For those who attended the think tank, the slides that I used throughout the two days are collected here, available for viewing or download.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Peak Metal Looms

I just received a "google alert" about an interview I did with The National, published in the UAE. The article focuses on "peak metal." The question, and it is a good one, is whether there are enough metals to enable a global population to adopt a "western/Dubai" life style. The conclusion is not with current practices. It is important that a rapidly developing area like the UAE is asking such questions.

The article was written by Raymond Beauchemin, Deputy Foreign Editor, and is dated August 7, 2008.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Our Future on Mars

As a child of the original space age, I’ve been hoping that a human mission to Mars will happen within my lifetime. While this is still a long shot, two recent developments suggest that the possibility is improving.

First, the several successful NASA missions to Mars have culminated with the confirmation of water ice by the current Mars explorer Phoenix. This craft used an on-board lab to confirm that a soil sample contained water vapor when heated. Obviously the existence of water on Mars makes it much more feasible to imagine human missions, even settlements on the red planet, because the water makes it possible to manufacture both hydrogen for fuel and oxygen for life support. It was really a forgone conclusion that water would be present, as we have noted before in 2000, but this observation by Phoenix is the first-ever physical confirmation.

Over the weekend the blogs were full of speculation that NASA is about to announce further test results that suggest either life or the possibility of life on Mars. However, NASA sought to dampen this speculation yesterday.

The second development that suggests a prospect for human mission to Mars was actually the failed launch of the Falcon 1 by the private space launch company, SpaceX on Saturday. This was the third test flight for the Falcon 1. After a perfect launch and first stage separation, the second stage failed to separate from the third, preventing the craft from achieving low earth orbit. At the same time, Elon Musk, company founder noted that a new booster engine performed perfectly, and the entire effort represented progress. Musk created SpaceX after selling PayPal, and has assembled the best private space launch team in the business. The plan is to develop heavy launch capabilities, and eventually manned craft. The company has snagged contracts with NASA, and I’ve heard Musk confidently describe a pathway to eventual trips to Mars in the decade of the 2020’s. SpaceX is discovering how hard space flight really is, but their progress suggests that a private company can be part of the answer as to how we get to Mars.

I believe that it is vital to the long term human future that we continue to develop our ability to be a space-faring civilization.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

110 Nations visit Futurist.com in July 2008

Google Analytics shows that in July 2008 visitors came into Futurist.com from 110 countries. The top 10 were:

United States - 4765 Visitors
Canada - 288 Visitors
United Kingdom - 214 Visitors
Australia - 194 Visitors
India - 159 Visitors
Netherlands - 65 Visitors
China - 59 visitors
Germany - 57 Visitors
Malaysia - 54 Visitors
Turkey - 53 Visitors

The total number in July was down somewhat, but the fact that people from virtually every country with Internet access checks in each month we find pretty amazing.

The Google Analytics map is below.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

The Future of Terrorism

In 2004 I wrote an article here on how a relatively simple approach could end the war on terrorism. A few people told me they wished it could be communicated to officials.

This week a new report from the Rand Corporation affirmed the same approach that seemed logical to me in 2004.

You can read my whole 2004 article here, but in brief it seemed to me that the logical approach would include:
1. Insist on 2-state solution in Middle East.
2. Declare an end to Middle East oil imports in 10 years.
3. Set a date to withdraw U.S. troops from the Middle East within 10 years.
4. Declare that terror attacks anywhere will be met with law enforcement and, only where necessary, military responses.
5. Strenthen global intelligence efforts.
6. Declare that any nation state that assists terrorism will be isolated, particularly from airplane travel and internet access.
7. Attack regions of world that breed terrorists...with massive education and development assistance.
8. Push the re-start button on the 21st Century.

In their report "How Terrorist Groups End" the Rand group recommends, in short:

* Make policing and intelligence the backbone of U.S. efforts. Al Qa'ida consists of a network of individuals who need to be tracked and arrested. This requires careful involvement of the Central Intelligence Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation, as well as their cooperation with foreign police and intelligence agencies.
* Minimize the use of U.S. military force. In most operations against al Qa'ida, local military forces frequently have more legitimacy to operate and a better understanding of the operating environment than U.S. forces have. This means a light U.S. military footprint or none at all.

It would be a major policy shift, and makes a lot of sense.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.