This is not a drill

Everyone has seen on film or TV, and a few have personally experienced the following: an emergency begins – a fire, an air raid, a ship collision. For a while there is confusion, and people mill around, not sure what is happening. Then, a voice comes over a PA system: “THIS IS NOT A DRILL, REPEAT, THIS IS NOT A DRILL.”

That was the simple point I attempted to make this week in a keynote speech to the Mississippi Valley Conference of state highway and transportation officials meeting in Kansas City.

You can view a copy of the PowerPoint slides that I used, here.

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The topic assigned was what lessons might we learn from the future about transportation, circa 2025? In order to understand transportation in that time frame, it is important to grasp what is happening today.

For a least a couple of decades, experts have been warning that a time would come when oil production would peak, prices would increase, climate change would challenge us, and putting all of that together we would come to end of the first automobile era. In fact, I predicted just that in a keynote speech in 1987, in Sun Valley, Idaho.

Now, it appears that we have arrived at the confluence of these forces. Many people in this audience, and any audience for that matter, hold out hope that the current situation is temporary, a mere blip in normal business and oil price cycles, and that before long we’ll be back, perhaps all the way to 1999 when the price of oil was $10 a barrel.

But, this is not a drill. China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world are using more and more oil products, and buying more cars. Here in the U.S. we are our own worst enemies when it comes to consumption. Seemingly without much thought we’ve grown typical houses from an average of 980 square feet for 3.4 people, to 5000-8000 square feet for 2.6 people. Our vehicles have ballooned in size until bus-sized SUV’s and Hummers lumber down the road.

Now, not just oil prices but a variety of factors will push us to re-think transportation and energy policies:
• The millennial generation will not stand for an approach which merely attempts to repeat the past.
• Climate change impacts are hitting us sooner than previously expected, including a rapid increase in the number of major floods, and fires, world wide.
• The economy in the near term is staggering under the weight of the financial crisis. (Note: the week of July 7-11, 2008 really brought this fact home, as the stock market went from the worst month of June since the great depression, to its lowest level in years, while oil reached another all-time high price.)

Then, there is the situation with oil. Prices are high now primarily because there is no slack in the system. The world produces, and uses, about 85-86 million barrels a day, while a cushion of 8-10% would be required to reduce supply & demand pressures. Oil exports are flat as producing nations use more of their own product.

So, we must search for answers. Is the answer drill, drill drill, as we hear from certain commentators, presidential candidates, and presidents? Consider the possibilities, keeping in mind that the U.S. uses about 20-21 million barrels of oil a day:
• The Bakken shale area of the Dakotas and Montana: 23 days of oil for U.S.
• Arctic Wildlife Refuge – 1.5 years of U.S. demand
• Alberta tar sands – anticipated maximum production yields 3 hours a day of U.S. needs, a few minutes of global demand.
• Opening the off-shore Continental shelf – 2.5 years of U.S. demand, but not beginning until 7-10 years from now.

In other words, drill drill drill is not a solution, it is an election strategy. We need breakthrough thinking – and it is happening! Nanotech batteries and solar cells. Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. We need only 17% more electricity a year in the national grid to re-charge the national fleet. Currently Amtrak has only 632 usable passenger cars in the entire country, but high speed trains may get a boost when California votes on Prop.1 this November. Mercedes plans to phase out fossil fuel vehicles by 2015.

Other nations are showing the way: Israel is going all electric, with service stations at which you will drive in, swap out batteries, and drive out. Brazil and China are investing in ethanol and methanol, respectively. Iran is converting private vehicles to natural gas. Masdar City in Abu Dubai will be a center for alternative energy and transportation research (too bad it is not in the New Mexico desert).

Here at home, T. Boone Pickens is outlining a plan to shift natural gas from electricity generation to a vehicle fuel, and using wind and solar to generate the electricity, in 10 years.

The bottom line is this:
• The next 15 years will see a transition from one energy & transportation system to another, a transformation which is necessary and inevitable.
• It is going to take a whole systems view of community form, energy, communications, and transportation to make this transition.
• It will require technology, and a deep reconsideration of values to get there.

We can to this, if we choose the right problems and apply the right solutions – the best definition of optimism that you can have.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

I called it in December 2007 – Oil hit $140 by mid-year

On December 21, 2007 the price of oil was in the $90 range. As we recorded "Outlook 2008" on that day I predicted a price of $140-150 by mid-year. And, yesterday on June 26, 2008 I was proven right, as oil climbed above $140 for the first time.

Looking ahead, let's put to rest one misconception. Wishing devoutly for the oil age not to be entering the second half of its life, many commentators promote a notion that the high price of oil is "all speculation." Having seen investment bubbles come and go in IT and housing, they have convinced themselves that oil (and gasoline) today are overpriced by 25-50%, and would come down that much if only the speculation were to end. But they are wrong, spectacularly wrong, as Paul Krugman notes.

In 1999 oil was at $10 per barrel. That was the year that production from the North Sea peaked. Now, production from Mexico is past peak, and oil exports are falling gradually as oil producers use more of their own product. The simple and stark fact is that the world produces about 85 million barrels a day, and uses about 86 million barrels. There is no slack in the system, and this is what drives prices, not speculation (though speculators play).

There are over-optimistic scenarios for increasing oil production, going so far as to suggest that production will increase by 50% in the next decade. Drill, drill, drill scream the pundits and the Republican presidential candidate, none of whom have considered that the oil age is at the beginning of the end. Search the history of oil discovery, and all the really big discoveries are decades in the past. The highly touted "huge" fields of the future, off the Brazilian coast, in Alaska, on the continental shelf, and even in the Arctic ocean of our dreams, are for the most part either unproven, or where known are tiny by historical standards, usually amounting to a few months of global consumption at most. So, we are not going to produce our way out of high prices.

My prediction now? Oil will fluctuate between $130 and $150 for the summer months, fall back toward $110 or a bit lower as demand moderates in the face of high prices and the industry attempts to influence the election. Then will begin the climb to $200, where oil will settle by year's end.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Book now in Brazil, Portuguese Translation

My book, Turning the Future Into Revenue, still generally available but most easily obtained via Amazon, is now available in a Portuguese translation, published in Brazil. My publisher, Wiley & Sons, just sent some copies, which look nice.

img id="image478" height=96 alt="Book Portuguese Translation" src="http://www.futurist.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/BookPortTrans.thumbnail.jpg" />

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

The Long Tail

In the digital ecosystem, it’s the head that gets the hits: the most popular and visible players garner the most attention, and therefore revenue. Chris Anderson, editor-in-chief of Wired, has drawn attention to the rest of the animal in his book, The Long Tail. Anderson proposes that the smaller entities—likened to a long tail streaming down from the top—have a vast and largely untapped potential.

Indeed they do. In a situation where it’s possible to digitize everything that has ever been recorded; to make content available without the packaging, storage and distribution of traditional media; and to give access to smaller producers and artists who previously would have come in under the radar, we get an idea of how long the tail could really be. But one question in our minds is not the potential of this long tail in its aggregate, but how well individual producers themselves may fare.

If small producers are able to benefit financially on their own, and not by being swallowed up into “long tail businesses,” which by themselves might be enjoying success, then perhaps the tail will become fat as well as long. But will the individual producer who moves a small number of copies see any appreciable difference in their income? Digital outreach continues to increase; the sheer audience size may make for an interesting return—or we may see a market develop where constant turnover of new contributors becomes the nature of the beast.

The concept invites other questions as well: can you climb up the spine? Can you lop off a tail and use it to grow a head all of your own? Can you make it as a disembodied tail? “The Long Tail” is an intriguing theory to describe an important and potentially very exciting dynamic in the developing digital world. But like any theory, as this creature comes to life we will see a greater complexity than can be summed up in its name alone.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

World Made by Hand

He is, quite simply, one of the most provocative American thinkers and writers alive today. He is James Howard Kunstler, author most recently of the novel, World Made by Hand.

In recent years, Mr. Kunstler has become best known for making the case that "peak oil" is here, now, the moment when we begin the second half of the oil age. The ride down the backside of the curve will, he argues, be steep, bumpy, and full of dislocations far beyond the minor inconveniences we usually imagine may be associated with higher gasoline prices. Mr. Kunstler lays out this argument, along with often biting, and occasionally hilarious commentary on moden American urban and suburban life, in his weekly blog, a must read for me each Monday.

Recently James passed through Seattle on his national book tour promoting the new novel, and he was kind enough to sit down with us for an interview. Below, we present the 22 minute interview in full. (It is also available at many video server sites on the web often in two parts due to length.)

First, a brief review of his novel. I was eager to see how James would turn his world view of the end of oil into fiction, and the novel succeeded for me in character, setting, and story. Set in the relatively near but indeterminate future, in a small town in upstate New York, we find the townspeople living without cars or internal combustion engines of any kind. Fleeting bursts of electricity serve only to recall tantalizing memories of days gone by, and the characters are generally struggling to remember how to grow food, fix things that are broken, and get by in a world made by hand. They are literally trying to recall a way of life only a generation and half lost in time, yet as distant and difficult to access as the most ancient history.

In order to arrange a world without functioning national or regional government James adds in a cataclysmic event or two on top of an energy crisis and a much hotter world. Taking note of contemporary trends to elevate superstition and spiritualism over science, he brings to the town a spiritual leader and his band of people seeking a peaceful place to make a new life. Much of the story revolves around the difficulties of integrating several alternative lifestyles among bands of former townspeople and newcomers attempting, simply, to survive in a new reality.

While Mr. Kuntsler takes the logic of the end of oil to extreme ends in order to create a dramatic story, he never-the-less creates a plausible world. Entering into that world you are forced to take stock of your own knowledge and skills as you imagine how you would fit in, were the world to step back in time. Would you, as many characters do, fail to cope with the loss of much of modernity, or would you, like the heroes of the story, settle into the steady rebuilding of life and community?

Glen Hiemstra Interview with James Howard Kunstler

Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com in studio with James Howard Kunstler, Author of "The World Made by Hand" from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Peak Oil and Global Warming – the Cross Matrix

There are three convergent items that all raise the question of the link between global warming and future fossil fuel use. Recent testimony to Congress from oil executives once again included assurances that there is sufficient oil to last for decades, and that no matter what, oil, coal and gas will still comprise the vast majority of energy supplies in use.

This has been a generally accepted view for two reasons, first the fact that oil reserve estimates have generally grown sufficiently that there is always a "40-year" supply on the books. However, the European branch of the OilDrum (which publishes a variety of credible challenges to this assumption) this week pointed to a most intriguing advertisement (PDF) placed in national publications by Shell Oil. This "advertisement" is one of a series of "conversations" about the future of energy. But intriguing is not really the right word, rather the appropriate description is "disturbing." In it Jeremy Leggett, a UK expert on peak oil and climate, puts it this way:

Renewable and efficient energy technology will have to replace fossil fuels far faster than most people currently anticipate.

It is interesting to speculate why Shell is publishing this at this time, but one possibility is that they are preparing the field for the future. You can watch a video of Jeremy at YouTube.

Second, Dr. James Hanson, NASA climate specialist took note of the expectation that we'll just look for more expensive and dirtier fossil fuels to keep the global engine running, an article of faith for many as noted. Hanson, speaking to the Guardian in the UK, argued that recent science is asking if the accepted global target for maximum CO2 in the atmosphere is in fact too high. He put it this way:

"If you leave us at 450ppm for long enough it will probably melt all the ice - that's a sea rise of 75 metres. What we have found is that the target we have all been aiming for is a disaster - a guaranteed disaster," Hansen told the Guardian.

Hanson is now beginning to advocate that we quickly phase out fossil fuels for transportation.

Finally, we turn to Al Gore again. He recently spoke to the 2008 TED conference, and the video of his short program was just posted by them. He takes on some of the standard challenges to global warming science - such as it being a simple natural cycle, or the result of sun cycles - but mostly he communicates a sense of urgency worth thinking about.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Robots

Before this week is over, I wanted to alert you to a video that I just came across, in an article on Robots at a blog site called Open the Future.

This video is of a "packbot" called "Big Dog." The robot was built by Boston Dynamics. Watch the video, and then I'd suggest you check out these sources.

This robot is spooky. Makes me think way more than ever that robots will indeed be important to out nearer term future.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Channeling Water for a Healthy Future

Water is vital to the health of our future. We cannot begin to address the way we structure our communities for long term well-being and productivity, without devoting serious attention to the role that water plays.

Focus is often given to the populations in the world for whom water is already a scarce resource, and to those geographical areas where we see increasing desertification. But even in places like the Pacific Northwest—notoriously rain soaked—we are seeing a trend toward rethinking and redesigning how we use water.

Cites like New York, Chicago and Seattle have already put important projects on the map. The Hearst Building in New York captures rainfall from the roof to support the indoor landscaping, and humidify the air. In Chicago, a Green Roofs Initiative helps abate the urban heat island effect, as well as capturing rainfall before it becomes storm run-off. Similarly, the Seattle High Point Neighborhood has developed a large scale natural drainage system which, when completed, will process water the way a forest meadow does.

There are many other innovations being implemented in communities around the country. Our growing realization of the need to channel water wisely will be instrumental in moving us toward a healthy future.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Matt Simmons Sees $300 Oil

I am always interested when Matt Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert, appears on the TV and comments on future oil prices. He is an oil analyst with a penchant for telling the truth rather than spinning either overly optimistic or pessimistic stories about peak oil (the day we will have used half the total global supply).

Last week he dropped into CNBC. Among other things, he anticipates $300 a barrel, though he says it is not possible to know just when this will be the case. But most important in this video, I think, is that he puts to rest the ridiculous notion that Alberta tar sands are somehow the answer to future energy needs. Take a minute to watch.

Update: Oil closed just short of $108 today, March 10, 2008.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Top 10 Dystopian Future Films

This is a very good list of the top ten "dystopian" films ever made. Each film communicates its own warning about possible futures worth avoiding. Check out the list at TakePart blog. The blog provides action links related to the issues raised in each film.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.