Futurist Speaker Glen Hiemstra: Outlook 2009

Outlook 2009

Watch the video of my Outlook for 2009 as a futurist, speaker, and consultant.

This is my final blog entry of 2008, before we take a couple of weeks off. I am cautiously optimistic about 2009. This may surprise you. Here is why.

Future of EEE – Economy, Energy, Environment

Economy: When I recorded Outlook 2008 in December of 2007, I predicted that the economic slump driven by the debt crisis would be worse than experts were suggesting at that time. In fact I had just heard Steve Forbes say in a speech that the debt crisis would be a minor inconvenience in 2008 involving a couple of billion dollars and was nothing to worry about. But of course it was a huge iceberg, into which we have crashed.

However, all is not lost for 2009. The key drivers in how the world deals with the economic crisis will be 1) the amount of the U.S. stimulus (plus that of other nations), 2) more importantly how this stimulus is applied, and 3) the psychological impact of the new U.S. administration. As it looks now the stimulus package(s) will be very large by historical standards, and critically, will be applied in the U.S. to job-creating endeavors rather than simply being poured into banks as most of the money so far has been. Assuming the money can get flowing to real projects the impact will begin to be felt by year end.

The psychological and emotional impact of a new direction is generally underestimated at this time. Last night I saw video of the election celebration in Grant Park, Chicago, on November 4, 2008. While not all shared in celebrating the Obama victory, I do not think we can accurately calculate how large the positive feeling will be when the new administration finally takes office and begins communicating its full plans.

When combined, these three drivers – amount of stimulus, its application, and psychological uplift will, I believe lead to such increased confidence that the economy will turn faster than assumed by the end of the year. This applies particularly to consumer and equity markets.

The housing market is another matter, as we have far to go before housing values match actual incomes. It is in the housing arena along with transportation that we face an important realization. The recovery that begins in 2009 will not return us to business as usual but to a new kind of economy, one that is more modest, more sustainable, and more equitable. If this is not the direction we go, then things will get worse instead of better, for the long run.

Energy: In Outlook 2008, I suggested that we’d see $140 oil by mid-year, which we did, followed by falling prices. But no-one, including me, anticipated a crash in prices like we have seen. Now, however, it appears more likely that by the end of 2009 we will see oil prices climbing to $80 rather than falling further or staying stable. In fact, do not be shocked if by the end of 2009 we are again talking about, if not quite yet seeing, $200 oil. The simple fact is that discovery and development of new oil does not keep pace with oil usage, and has not since the 1970’s. The slightest increase in economic activity will shift prices upward again, while for the time being new investment is stalled.

Environment: The new U.S. administration promises a sharp turn in environmental policy, toward paying attention to climate change. We will see lots of positive action within the stimulus plan and via general investment, in making the built environment more sustainable (retro-fitting public buildings, schools), taking steps to enhance the electricity grid for increased used of solar and wind power, and we will see more breakout activity in nanotech solar energy.

Future of Health Care

The U.S. economy cannot fully recover until and unless the health care crisis in the U.S. is addressed. This crisis includes 50 million uninsured, and health care expenses which on average are up to two times those of the rest of the industrial world, for quality of care that by many measure is no better. The underlying issue is that U.S. health insurance is still mostly attached to employment. Lose your job, lose your insurance. Individual policies are hard to get, and very expensive, as much as $12,000-15,000 per year. In addition, U.S. employers are burdened with the expense, in comparison to international competitors, as we can see in the comparison of U.S. auto makers to their competitors.

Here is the critical issue for 2009. Health care reform will be at the head of the table. But, I was there in 1992-1993, early in my futurist work, when health care reform failed under the Clintons. It failed because the entrenched professional lobbies fought it off. The same result will occur in 2009 and beyond, if the current terms of the health care debate do not change.

The one item so far claimed to be “off the table” is universal coverage in the form of something like Medicare for all. If the policy debate is formulated only around re-arranging the pieces in the health care system, and not fundamentally changing the players, do not expect much change. What deserves at least serious exploration is a Medicare for all approach, with private companies providing supplemental insurance, and removal of health insurance as an employer expectation. I do not know that such a system can ever be designed and approved in the U.S., but it ought to be considered.

Future Technology

The most exciting tech areas in 2009 will be 1) continued development in mobile Internet, via the array of phones now accessing the net along with nearly universal wireless access, and 2) growth in touch and gesture based interfaces, as with iPhones, the HP touch screen and the Microsoft surface computing initiative. Expect more and more Internet access to be mobile and touch/gesture based.
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Glen Hiemstra, futurist speaker, is the author of Turning the Future Into Revenue: What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know to Shape Their Futures, from John Wiley & Sons, publisher, 2006. Glen is the Founder and Owner of Futurist.com, a website in the public interest, a blogger, consultant, and Internet video host. He lives and works in Kirkland, Washington, providing presentation, consultation, and research services. For more information contact: www.futurist.com
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Media futurist and Outlook 2009

I'll be writing my Outlook 2009, to accompany the video already up. But getting a head start, Swiss-based media futurist Gerd Leonhard just linked to it as his blog, mediafuturist.

You can get a look at Outlook 2009 here, in our upgraded video pages.

Bottom line: 2009 may be just a bit better than what we are believing right now, though it will be an adventure.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Videos by Futurist.com

The Future.
It is mysterious, looming, full of possibility.
To understand the future, and to create it, we ask three questions: What is probable? What is possible? What is preferred?

Explore the future in these Video Features and Interviews Produced by Futurist.com on a range of future topics.

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Future of Jobs with Futurist Glen Hiemstra- Sep. 2011

Glen talks about the future of jobs in a changing economy.

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Interview with Priyanka Jain about iCAREweCARE

Priyanka Jain is Founder at iCAREweCARE.org, a global network of high school and college students coordinating their volunteer efforts to focus on issues they really care about.

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Futurist Outlook 2011

Futurist speaker Glen Hiemstra discusses some forecasts for 2011. Read the written version with more detail here.

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What Comes After the Great Recession

Futurist speaker Glen Hiemstra discusses what comes after the economic meltdown, in this interview by Brenda Cooper. He also looks at future issues that keep him up at night, and the nature of optimism.

Recorded in March 2009

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The Nanobattery Car

After a visit and test drive at Altairnano, Glen recorded this short video clip - the car of the future?

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Interview with Jim Kunstler in 2008: World Made by Hand

This May 2008 interview with Mr. Kunstler, one of the most provocative of American thinkers writing today, is eye-opening in its preview of the coming economic and energy crisis.

Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com with James Howard Kunstler, Author of "World Made by Hand" from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.

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Future of Sustainable Housing: Inhabit Small House Project

In 2008 a joint venture of Unico Properties, Mithun Architects, and Hybrid-Seattle Architects designed and built a demonstration project for a small, sustainable house - the inHabit project. We had a chance to visit, and tour the project with a lead project designer, Tammie Schacher. There are 4-parts to the video.

Futurist.com TV - Future of Urban Living and Building. Part 1 from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.

Futurist.com TV - Future of Urban Living and Building Part 2 from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.

Futurist.com TV - Future of Urban Living and Building Part 3 from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.

Futurist.com TV - Future of Urban Living and Building Part 4 from Glen Hiemstra on Vimeo.

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Future of the Future

This series of 9 short videos explores a variety of topics. Recorded in 2007, the videos can be seen in the view window below, or use the links below the view window to see each video full size at YouTube/Futurist Speaker.

To View Future of the Future topics full size at YouTube/FuturistSpeaker, select below:
Future of Energy
Future of the Flying Car
Future of the Knowledge-Based Economy
Future of the Global Climate Crisis
Future of Water
Future of Nanotechnology
Future of Religion
Future of Robotics
Future of the Online Community

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Have any questions or comments? Please Contact Us.

Outlook 2008

Here is my outlook for 2008, recorded December 21, 2007.

Overview – 2008 will be a year that feels like a whip-saw. Promising innovations. Economic turmoil. Large events

The Economy 2008 - Paradoxes

2008 will be one of paradox, innovation balanced by turmoil. Because of the tremendous interconnectivity of researchers, the availability of money for innovation investment, the technical tools available, and the urgency of certain needs, there will be more opportunity for innovation in 2008 than ever. Innovation is needed in energy, in health care, and in so many fields. But, innovation will be balanced or held back by turmoil in the financial markets. Some 2 million more “teaser rate” mortgages will re-set in the next 18 months. The resulting debt crisis is not near its end, not even near the mid-point, but still in its early stages. One estimate is that 5.6 million home owners in the U.S. are upside-down, owing more than their house is worth. If prices fall another 10-20%, as some predict, then perhaps 10 million home owners will go upside-down. This would drive losses from $100 billion to nearer a trillion dollars.

Globally, China will continue to grow at a rapid rate, 10-12% per year. It will attract increasing investment and become more of an innovation center.

2008 will also see income disparity come to the fore as a social and political issue. The nature of the current economy is such that small groups of highly creative people can reap super rewards, while the large middle class sees little progress

Technology 2008 - Nano + Solar

The hottest tech areas in 2008 will be nano plus solar. Nanotechnology, particularly the work being done with nanotech batteries, will stand out. AltairNano will ship a 20MW stationary battery in 2008. Nanobatteries will impact the introduction of plug-in electric cars in 2008, and the supply of electric cars from Phoenix, Tesla and others will fall far short of demand. AltairNano will debut an electric garbage truck. In the field of solar, NanoSolar will, according to reports, complete its fabrication plant for printing thin-film solar cells, enough of them to be equivalent to a third to a half a nuclear plant per year.

Nanotech will also impact water filtration. Seldon Tech is using carbon nanotubes to manufacture water filters, actually printed on old newspaper equipment. The carbon nanotubes used to cost hundreds of dollars an ounce, but now have come down to 20 cents an ounce. The Seldon Tech water straw will appear in early 2008.

Beyond nano and solar, the IT development of note in the U.S. will be fiber to the home. Verizon’s FIOS product will challenge the cable franchises to move from the “triple play” (TV, phone, internet) to a quadruple (TV, phone, internet, wireless) or quintuple play (TV, phone, internet, wireless, home management). The question will be whether consumers want all these things bundled for convenience, or whether they care.

Energy 2008 - Oil Rising

As 2007 came to a close, oil was at about $95 a barrel. Some experts predict a dramatic price decline in 2008, following historical patterns. We disagree. The new floor price is about $90, and we will see $100 in 2008, and as much as $140-150 by mid-year. Why? Increasing global demand from countries like China and India, an obvious development. But the real hidden force is increasing demand in the oil producing nations. In fact, the key metric to watch is not oil production but oil exports. Countries like Russia, Venezuela, and Mexico see their exports falling faster than their production, as they use more internally. The same is true in Saudi Arabia. Oil prices are not coming back, and 2008 is the year we realize this is true.

[I recorded the video on December 21, 2007- and oil hit $100 on January 2, 2008.]

[Second Note: Oil hit $140 on June 26, 2008.]

Environment 2008 - The Big Stall

2007 was the year of the turning point as regards the global climate crisis. Thanks to Al Gore and the IPCC, co-winners of the Nobel Prize, even the die-hards like the U.S. President now acknowledge that global warming is real. But, will 2008 then become the year of action? No, not yet. Instead it will be the year of the big stall, as debate rages about what to do, and mostly all of the relevant institutions and decision makers have to wait until the U.S. administration turns over. We will see private initiatives in energy and transportation, but concerted global action will wait another year.

Population and Venture Capital 2008 - Oh to be Young

The leading edge of the digital native generation is now 18-25 or so. The first generation to grow up in the personal computing and internet age is now at work. The venture capital world increasingly focuses on this generation, the very young creatives, for the breakthrough ideas. Thus 2008 marks a change-over to the next generation for innovation leadership.

Wildcard 2008 - Iraq and McCain

I once heard Alvin Toffler say that predicting likely trends is of less value than is anticipating unlikely events that would really change things if they happened. The wild cards, in other words. Here is my wildcard for 2008: calm in Iraq, not just the level of violence but actual political reconciliation. Were this to happen, in time, the odds for John McCain becoming the Republican nominee, and later being elected U.S. President increase greatly. If four more years of Republican rule resulted, then progressive policy change in health care, taxes, and to a lesser degree the environment and energy becomes much less likely. Another wildcard may scuttle this possibility, regardless of Iraq. That is immigration. Conventional wisdom says a candidate must demonstrate an anti-immigrant stance to be elected. However, the large Latino vote in the U.S. could turn this assumption upside down, and thus work against a McCain win.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.