Four Peaks we don’t want to climb

Via The Oil Drum, we learn about the current world energy conference being held in Dubai. The conference began with an address by Dutch Crown Prince Willem-Alexander, Prince of Orange and the Netherlands, who is "perhaps the only prince in the world who regularly uses a bike to get around and save fossil fuels..."

Being Dutch by heritage, I wanted to know what he said. You can link to the full speech, or read this summary provided at OilDrum. He began with comments on the four impending energy peaks.

Ladies and gentlemen, did you know that when the Roman Empire finally collapsed, large parts of Europe had been deforested. Acres of forestland had been cleared for farmland and to provide firewood. Wood and food were essential, to maintain the Roman Empire. To meet their short term needs, the Romans overexploited their prime energy resource. They did not think about the consequences for later generations. So the demise of a seemingly invincible civilization was partially due to the unsustainable use of their prime energy resource. The question is, are we going to be any wiser?

What the Romans were experiencing, we would now describe as peak wood. Reaching a point of maximum production after which it enters terminal decline. We are now facing a century of at least four undesirable peaks, peak oil, peak gas, peak coal and peak uranium. Mountaineers may be proud to conquer peaks, but there is no reason whatsoever for us to be proud. We can, however, change the course of history. The technologies we need are there.

Hardly a day goes by that I do not see or read or hear, on a blog, in a letter to the editor, on a website, at CNBC, the claim that we have centuries of conventional energy supply, and thus all warnings about energy use are, well, useless. The Prince disagrees, as do I.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Futurist Speaker Glen Hiemstra: Outlook 2009

Outlook 2009

Watch the video of my Outlook for 2009 as a futurist, speaker, and consultant.

This is my final blog entry of 2008, before we take a couple of weeks off. I am cautiously optimistic about 2009. This may surprise you. Here is why.

Future of EEE – Economy, Energy, Environment

Economy: When I recorded Outlook 2008 in December of 2007, I predicted that the economic slump driven by the debt crisis would be worse than experts were suggesting at that time. In fact I had just heard Steve Forbes say in a speech that the debt crisis would be a minor inconvenience in 2008 involving a couple of billion dollars and was nothing to worry about. But of course it was a huge iceberg, into which we have crashed.

However, all is not lost for 2009. The key drivers in how the world deals with the economic crisis will be 1) the amount of the U.S. stimulus (plus that of other nations), 2) more importantly how this stimulus is applied, and 3) the psychological impact of the new U.S. administration. As it looks now the stimulus package(s) will be very large by historical standards, and critically, will be applied in the U.S. to job-creating endeavors rather than simply being poured into banks as most of the money so far has been. Assuming the money can get flowing to real projects the impact will begin to be felt by year end.

The psychological and emotional impact of a new direction is generally underestimated at this time. Last night I saw video of the election celebration in Grant Park, Chicago, on November 4, 2008. While not all shared in celebrating the Obama victory, I do not think we can accurately calculate how large the positive feeling will be when the new administration finally takes office and begins communicating its full plans.

When combined, these three drivers – amount of stimulus, its application, and psychological uplift will, I believe lead to such increased confidence that the economy will turn faster than assumed by the end of the year. This applies particularly to consumer and equity markets.

The housing market is another matter, as we have far to go before housing values match actual incomes. It is in the housing arena along with transportation that we face an important realization. The recovery that begins in 2009 will not return us to business as usual but to a new kind of economy, one that is more modest, more sustainable, and more equitable. If this is not the direction we go, then things will get worse instead of better, for the long run.

Energy: In Outlook 2008, I suggested that we’d see $140 oil by mid-year, which we did, followed by falling prices. But no-one, including me, anticipated a crash in prices like we have seen. Now, however, it appears more likely that by the end of 2009 we will see oil prices climbing to $80 rather than falling further or staying stable. In fact, do not be shocked if by the end of 2009 we are again talking about, if not quite yet seeing, $200 oil. The simple fact is that discovery and development of new oil does not keep pace with oil usage, and has not since the 1970’s. The slightest increase in economic activity will shift prices upward again, while for the time being new investment is stalled.

Environment: The new U.S. administration promises a sharp turn in environmental policy, toward paying attention to climate change. We will see lots of positive action within the stimulus plan and via general investment, in making the built environment more sustainable (retro-fitting public buildings, schools), taking steps to enhance the electricity grid for increased used of solar and wind power, and we will see more breakout activity in nanotech solar energy.

Future of Health Care

The U.S. economy cannot fully recover until and unless the health care crisis in the U.S. is addressed. This crisis includes 50 million uninsured, and health care expenses which on average are up to two times those of the rest of the industrial world, for quality of care that by many measure is no better. The underlying issue is that U.S. health insurance is still mostly attached to employment. Lose your job, lose your insurance. Individual policies are hard to get, and very expensive, as much as $12,000-15,000 per year. In addition, U.S. employers are burdened with the expense, in comparison to international competitors, as we can see in the comparison of U.S. auto makers to their competitors.

Here is the critical issue for 2009. Health care reform will be at the head of the table. But, I was there in 1992-1993, early in my futurist work, when health care reform failed under the Clintons. It failed because the entrenched professional lobbies fought it off. The same result will occur in 2009 and beyond, if the current terms of the health care debate do not change.

The one item so far claimed to be “off the table” is universal coverage in the form of something like Medicare for all. If the policy debate is formulated only around re-arranging the pieces in the health care system, and not fundamentally changing the players, do not expect much change. What deserves at least serious exploration is a Medicare for all approach, with private companies providing supplemental insurance, and removal of health insurance as an employer expectation. I do not know that such a system can ever be designed and approved in the U.S., but it ought to be considered.

Future Technology

The most exciting tech areas in 2009 will be 1) continued development in mobile Internet, via the array of phones now accessing the net along with nearly universal wireless access, and 2) growth in touch and gesture based interfaces, as with iPhones, the HP touch screen and the Microsoft surface computing initiative. Expect more and more Internet access to be mobile and touch/gesture based.
***************************************************************

Glen Hiemstra, futurist speaker, is the author of Turning the Future Into Revenue: What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know to Shape Their Futures, from John Wiley & Sons, publisher, 2006. Glen is the Founder and Owner of Futurist.com, a website in the public interest, a blogger, consultant, and Internet video host. He lives and works in Kirkland, Washington, providing presentation, consultation, and research services. For more information contact: www.futurist.com
***************************************************************

Media futurist and Outlook 2009

I'll be writing my Outlook 2009, to accompany the video already up. But getting a head start, Swiss-based media futurist Gerd Leonhard just linked to it as his blog, mediafuturist.

You can get a look at Outlook 2009 here, in our upgraded video pages.

Bottom line: 2009 may be just a bit better than what we are believing right now, though it will be an adventure.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Geothermal Heat Pumps

When alternative energy is discussed, a potential energy source that receives less attention is geothermal. However, if I walk a few blocks from my home to Lake Washington High School I can see a geothermal heat pump system being installed in preparation for a complete re-build of this school.

Ground-based geothermal differs from the kind of geothermal we usually think of, which is hot-water based. About 10% of the earth has sites where volcanic activity is sufficient to heat water that could be tapped to produce energy. At the same time, everywhere the earth maintains a fairly constant temperature of 50F about 6 feet down.

Using this constant earth temperature is a simple engineering proposition of drilling holes, running pipe down and back, sending a liquid through the pipes, and using the temperature differential in a heat pump. In the summer the earth assists in cooling, in the winter it assists in heating.

Such systems are appropriate to homes and commercial buildings both. The Lake Washington School District has been using such a system in another of its schools, Redmond High School, since 2003, saving an estimated $66,000 per year in energy costs. The new system next door will generate comparable savings.

For a home owner, the cost of installing such a system will be in the range of 50% more expensive than a typical furnace and air-based heat pump system, but payback is typically estimated in five years. In addition, there are various subsidies available to assist in the initial cost.

Installation is a messy job, as you can see in these photos I snapped the other day, but the result is a major contribution to a sustainable future.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of Oil

Last week Friday, September 12, 2008 the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources held a hearing on the future of energy. The session focused on such issues as off-shore drilling (drill baby drill) and alternatives.

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island asked the most critical question:

WHITEHOUSE: Gentlemen, we’re in the middle of a near total mortgage system meltdown in this country. We have a health care system that burns 16 percent of our GDP, in which the Medicare liability alone has been estimated at $34 trillion. We’re burning $10 billion a month in Iraq.

This administration has run up $7.7 trillion in national debt, by our calculation. And there is worsening evidence every day of global warming, with worsening environmental, economic and national security ramifications. In light of those conditions, do any of you seriously contend that drilling for more oil is the number one issue facing the American people today?

(Long silent pause during which nobody answers.)

WHITEHOUSE: No, it doesn’t seem so.

Watch it here:

MeteorBlades has more, here.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

What Digby Said

Smart bloggers often just write, "what Digby said." This time, July 15, 2008 he says it about the famous Jimmy Carter speech on energy given in 1979. If only....but a year later it was morning in America, time to live it up for 30 years. And now here we are.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Featured Videos

The Future.
You have to see it to believe it.

On this page you will find recent videos of Glen speaking and being interviewed, videos that we produce, and other interesting videos about the future that I think are timely or worth highlighting in some way.



THE FUTURIST

In this short film Glen Hiemstra, Founder of Futurist.com and of DoTheFuture.com, explores what it means to be a futurist and what drives his work. The film was produced by Graymatter Productions, Seattle, Washington. For more information contact info@futurist.com.

Glen Hiemstra's New Keynote Sample Video

In November 2011, Glen worked with Seattle photographer David Ryder to produce a new Keynote Sample Video with updated highlights and new commentary.

Why Explore the Future

Buhler, Inc. in 2010

This is an excerpt from the Keynote speech Glen gave at Buhler's 150th anniversary celebration.

Kids View the Future

Children write postcards to the future - the 50 year future - in this charming video from ARC, used by permission.

Solar Roads and Future Solar Energy

We know that enough sunlight hits the earth every hour to power the world's energy needs for a year. Someday, sooner than many think, earth civilization will be converting to solar energy. One of the most clever ideas for doing so is the solar road.

Have any questions or comments? Please Contact Us.