Press Releases Archive 2008
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10.01.08
Straight Arrow PR
Tampa Bay, Florida
727.647.8453
billhawkins@straightarrowpr.com
Straight Arrow PR is pleased to announce that internationally respected futurist Glen Hiemstra is available for interviews to discuss his second quarterly report featuring forecasts relevant to the general public.
According to Mr. Hiemstra, “The recent Wall Street shocks remind us of the need to look over the horizon in order to prepare for the dangers and opportunities ahead.”
Mr. Hiemstra, futurist speaker and consultant, is the author of Turning the Future into Revenue (John Wiley & Sons 2006) which has been highly praised for contributing profoundly important insights on the subject of preferred future planning.
Here are some excerpts from Glen Hiemstra’s second Quarterly Report which is available to the public at www.futurist.com.
The Future of Oil
In the 3rd Quarter forecast I suggested that oil, then at $147 a barrel would decline to $110 or lower through the election season, then begin rising again toward $200 by year’s end.
Obviously the first part of this forecast has come to pass, as oil fell below $100 and has for two weeks fluctuated around that price. The economic crisis which has come to a head in this time period has added to downward pressure on oil prices, as traders now anticipate a deeper economic recession in 2009 than they had before.
Global economic activity may depress oil prices more than previously anticipated, but the underlying dynamics of oil remain. Oil consumption occurs at about four times the rate of new oil discovery, and despite a release of off-shore oil areas this imbalance is going to remain. It is literally impossible to out-drill the oil shortage problem in a world where population grows and economic activity increases in the emerging world.
Prediction: Oil will fluctuate between $90 and $110 until the election. If the U.S. Congress comes up with an acceptable rescue or bail-out plan for the financial crisis, then oil will rise a bit more. Not until the election will it become clear to traders what likely economic performance will be going forward. Assuming some confidence in the global economy, I continue to predict that we will see a climb in oil price to the neighborhood of $200.
The Future of the U.S. Workforce
In the month of September 2008 the U.S. Census Bureau released two new reports; one on the future of the workforce and its growing diversity, and a second about the surprising decline in immigration into the U.S.
Diversity
• Minorities, now one-third the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042.
• The Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple by 2050. Nearly one in three U.S. residents will be Latino
• The Asian share of the nation’s population is expected to rise from 5.1 percent to 9.2 percent.
• The working-age population by 2050 is projected to be more than 30 percent Hispanic, 15 percent Black, and 9.6 percent Asian, combining for a total workforce that will be more than 50 percent minority.
Immigration
The U.S. has added about one million new immigrants per year since 1990, accounting for most of the population growth and leading to a current immigrant population of 38 million, the highest ever; however, the Census Bureau has reported a reversal of trend…
Prediction: Two developments are likely. If the decline in immigration becomes a trend, then in just a few years we will be actively encouraging new immigration as we face a worker shortage. Second, not mentioned in the statistics above is the tremendous growth in the aging population. Already nearly a quarter of residents over age 65 remain in the paid labor force. This will grow… An economic downturn which hits the retired will push even more seniors back to work. It will be essential that workplaces and communities plan for this development.
The Future of the Economy
Current efforts to rescue or bail out the Wall Street financing system will eventually lead to some kind of action. However, the impact will fall short of hopes and expectations, because the underlying dynamic which has driven this crisis will not be addressed except over a long period of time.
In the past two decades two economic activities have come to dominate the U.S economy – construction – primarily the great suburban build-out – and creative financing. One can argue that manufacturing employment did not disappear but rather morphed into construction and what we have been building are suburbs. As this happened, a mismatch between what is built and what consumers can afford became more and more pronounced. In 1970 the average home was about 1400 square feet. Now it is 2500 square feet, but that masks the deeper reality of development after development of 3500-5000 square foot homes, priced, depending on region of the country, from $450,000 to $1,200,000…
The core problem is that the home construction industry has not, and still is not building what the market can afford or will want in the future. When you take into account the aging of the population, one study has suggested that the nation faces a surplus of 22 million large homes by 2025…
Prediction: The next 18-24 months will see a recession because of the financial crisis, compounded by the deeper global energy shortage…”
If you would like to interview Glen Hiemstra please contact Bill Hawkins or Veronica Lennon at 727-647-8453 (Tampa Bay).
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Straight Arrow PR
Tampa Bay, Florida
727.647.8453
billhawkins@straightarrowpr.com
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7.22.08
Straight Arrow PR
Straight Arrow PR is pleased to announce that internationally respected futurist Glen Hiemstra is now available for interviews to discuss his new quarterly report designed specifically for the general public.
According to Mr. Hiemstra, “In our rapidly changing world, forward looking intelligence is increasingly valued by government and industry. I hope to persuade more individual citizens to focus on emerging trends in order to avoid the dangers and seize the opportunities.”
Mr. Hiemstra is the author of Turning the Future into Revenue (John Wiley & Sons 2006) which has been highly praised for contributing profoundly important insights on the subject of preferred future planning.
Here are some excerpts from Glen Hiemstra’s Quarterly Report which is available to the public at www.futurist.com/articles/.
The Future of Oil
“The scenarios promoted by oil industry leaders for increasing oil production in the US and abroad are overly optimistic…The highly touted ‘huge’ fields of the future …are for the most part either unproven, or small by historical standards. Most will amount to a few months of global consumption.
Prediction: Oil will fluctuate between $120 and $150 for the summer months (‘08) and then fall back toward $110 or a bit lower as demand moderates in response to high prices. Then will see a climb to $200, where oil will settle by year’s end.
*Note: On December 21, 2007 when oil was in the $90 range, we predicted a price of $140-150 by mid-year (See Outlook 2008 on our web site).”
The Future of Housing
“Contrary to the majority view among financial advisors and real estate agents; the crisis in housing is likely to continue until 2012. This means three more years of above average foreclosure rates which will contribute to the oversupply of housing.
The supply/demand equation combined with the high cost of energy has accelerated the small house movement. This will lead to rezoning of neighborhoods with large homes to allow multi-family dwellings.
Note: Recent efforts by the federal government to stabilize the residential housing market will be neutralized by tighter lending standards.”
The Future of Transportation
“The next 15 years will see a transition in automobiles far faster than imagined today. The vehicle of the future includes:
Plug-in hybrids: …A small gasoline motor is used solely to run a generator to recharge batteries when needed, while the drive train is all-electric.
Fuel-Cell Electrics: …Since a car is typically driven an hour or two a day, the rest of the time a fuel cell car could generate enough electricity to power most needs of a typical home. The challenge is that while hydrogen is abundant, it must be separated from other substances, ideally water, and then transported and stored. All of this is complex and expensive…both Mercedes and Honda continue to place bets on a hydrogen future, and the state of California continues to work toward a hydrogen infrastructure.
Plug-in All Electric: This is the dominant play…The Tesla is a proof that a concept car can travel upwards of 200 miles on a charge. AltairNano, A123 Systems, and other ‘nano-battery’ developers aim for life-cycles of 15000 charges, such that a battery would outlive a car. Charge times are on the order of 10 minutes with high voltage systems that could be standard at filling stations. The nation of Israel may be the first to go all-electric with a service station strategy of swappable batteries: drive in, replace your battery module, and drive out. Mercedes includes a plug-in electric in their future fleet and is reported to be considering a phase out of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2015.”
If you would like to interview Glen Hiemstra please contact Bill Hawkins or Veronica Lennon at 727-647-8453 (Tampa Bay).
###
Straight Arrow PR
Tampa Bay, Florida
727.647.8453
billhawkins@straightarrowpr.com
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