If You Want to Design Consumer Shift – Let the Women Do It!

This is a guest blog by Jean Brittingham.

Over the past few years, there has been a ‘quickening’ in the world of women as it relates to the health and future of our planet. This awakening has fuelled the emergence of grassroots communities as well as the significant increase in entrepreneurial activity among women that we at SmartGirls are so very excited about.

It has also created a significant body of research about the traits of successful women in these ventures. Not surprisingly they are the traits talked about extensively in sustainability salons, environmental blogs, and policy meetings -- systems awareness and thinking, passion, hopefulness, solutions orientation and a keen understanding of the undeniable power of relationships.

Women, who are known to wield significant influence in consumer decision-making, can become a secret weapon in a shift to sustainable consumption. To be specific, if experiences are created to engage women in the design, marketing, advertising and delivery of the shopping experiences of the future based on sustainable, healthy and generative products and services, the shift to sustainable consumption could be accelerated and the long-desired “consumer pull” for sustainability could see daylight.

I would be thrilled to see consumer brands get excited and real about this opportunity and have recommended it to Davos through my involvement with the Consumer Industry Global Agenda Council. Think about the power of a “design for the future” project incentivized with prizes that is particularly focused on engaging with women across the planet. I see kiosks in retail outlets, community centers and other places where women naturally gather.

It’s true that current consumption model was built on creating desire and needs that citizen-consumers (mostly women) respond to. It’s also true women care more about the health of families, communities and therefore the planet and are creating a lot of the actual leadership to make this shift happen.

Who then better to help design our way to the future we want?

10 Big Green Ideas

(With this blog entry we welcome Catherine Otten back to Futurist.com, where she is now Director of Communications and Programs. Catherine is particularly committed to ideas that improve the environment, so in addition to her administrative duties we look forward to future blog entries like this.)

Newsweek recently ran an article (in their Oct. 25 issue) called 10 Big Green Ideas. They truly are big ideas that show the many different routes to the future of sustainability. As Margaret Mead once said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” This list is a quick look at some of the amazing ideas coming from some of those thoughtful citizens.

1. Make a Greener Burger – Blairo Maggi has recently started promoting “sustainable development,” “carbon credits,” “avoided deforestation” – and green beef. He has signed moratoriums on selling beef from recently deforested lands and has been urging local ranchers and meatpackers to clean up their acts.

2. Invest in the Improbable – Vinod Khosla, Sun Microsystems cofounder, is betting on green-tech startups. “I like technologies that have a 90 percent chance of failure,” he says, “because a 10 percent chance of making 100 times your money is better than an 80 percent chance of doubling your money.”

3. Get Out of the Gulf – Jackie Savitz, a political party analyst with the ocean-advocacy group Oceana, sees a fairly simple way to get out the gulf completely. All we have to do is electrify 10 percent of America’s cars by 2020, switch oil-based power plants to clean electric ones, update one quarter of oil-heated homes to electric power, and phase in all available non-feedstock biofuels.

4. Catch a Wave – In March, 10 energy firms were allowed to set up off the coast of Scotland and pilot plants have also been set up in Portugal, Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Northeastern United States.

5. Hug a Nuke – Traditionally, nuclear power plants use enriched uranium to generate power. Enrichment itself is inefficient and up to 92 percent of uranium is cast aside as “depleted uranium”. TerraPower has come up with a plan to run an entire plant with depleted uranium.

6. Turn Smoke Into Rocks – Calera has developed a process that takes CO2 from a power-plant smokestack and turns it into cement.

7. Drink Your Garbage – Singapore installed a system two years ago that turns sewage into drinking water and now WaterCAMPWS is working on doing it in the U.S.

8. Hire a Microbe – In Minneapolis, BioCee is working on microbes that soak up sunlight and carbon dioxide and convert it into a substitute for petroleum. Stanford discovered a bug that uses sunlight to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. In California, Amyris created genetically modified yeast that produces something like gasoline.

9. Shout it Out Loud – A tiny NGO in Beijing, the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, collects government data about local suppliers that are violating environmental standards and finds out which international companies the violators are connected with. They then work with foreign non-profits to pressure the big international companies to clean up their act.

10. Lighten Up – LED bulbs may cost more, but they can save a fortune on your electric bill. LED Savings and Solutions helps companies retrofit their buildings to reduce energy and save thousands each month.

Growing the Idaho Economy: Moving into the Future

I was born in the beautiful state of Idaho, and lived there the first decade of my life. Consequently, I always look forward to opportunities to work with consulting clients in Idaho as I feel an affinity for the place.

This year one of my major projects involved assisting the State of Idaho Transportation Department in a long-range planning effort that they will complete toward the end of 2010. My assigned task was to produce a report in late summer on the future economy of Idaho as it interacts with transportation infrastructure, with a 20-30 year time horizon.

To conduct this study I enlisted the assistance of two colleagues, Art Hiemstra who has decades of experience in investment banking in early stage companies, and Dennis Walsh, a Canadian environmental futurist who was the first publisher of Green at Work.

The result was comprehensive and forward looking, a report that sets the stage with the evolving economic environment shaping the future of Idaho, the necessity of competing on a world class level, opportunities we see for Idaho, risks to the future, strategic implications for transportation planning, and several case studies of other regions that have envisioned their futures for comparison.

I think the most intriguing idea suggested is that the state of Idaho, known historically for agriculture and outdoor recreation and more recently as a center for technology, has the opportunity to position itself for leadership in next generation energy development. We in fact proposed the establishment of the "Sunrise Energy Corridor" stretching across most of the southern area of the state, where there is respected national lab, great university resources, entrepreneurs in solar and wind, and, lots of sunshine.

The full report, "Growing the Idaho Economy, Moving Into the Future" can be found here on their website. We invite you to take a look. (It is a large pdf file, 20+MB.)

Design Futurist

The future of fashion is no longer just about how you look; it’s about how your clothes were made and what materials were used in the process. Natalia Allen was appalled by the practices of the fashion industry. “We’ve been taught to design recklessly,” she said. “We move from season to season, reverie to reverie, inspiration to inspiration.” So she founded Design Futurist to help create sustainable solutions to these problems. UTNE magazine said, "8,000 chemicals were used to make the clothes in your closet. Approximately 1,800 gallons of fresh water were used to manufacture the jeans you’re wearing right now. All-too-commonplace numbers like these make it clear that the fashion industry needs an eco-makeover. Natalia Allen is up for the challenge. She is featured in the current issue of UTNE as the “Conscientious Fashionista" as she continues to team up with high profile clients such as Calvin Klein, Quicksilver, and DKNY to help implement sustainable methods and materials.

This week the Social Ventures Network - Fall Invitational will bring together a vibrant community of social entrepreneurs to explore new ways to create a just economy, strengthen their collective impact, and share resources and experiences in leading sustainable enterprises. Natalia will present the remarkable work of her firm Design Futurist to inspire and inform fellow entrepreneurs.

In this video, Design Futurist gives a quick explanation of some of the new sustainable materials that are available as well as some advice on how to be more sustainable in the rest of your life.

Outlook 2010, by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist, Speaker

Outlook 2010, by Glen Hiemstra

I recorded this outlook for 2010 on December 30, 2009. I decided this year to look at five areas.

Aging
The first is demographic. I think that the biggest story of 2010 is the aging society, which will fly under the radar somewhat as a news story as more urgent but ultimately less important issues dominate. This is the major trend of 2010 because as of January 1 of this year we were 365 days from the day the first Baby Boomer turns 65 in the U.S. After that, for nearly two decades every 8 seconds or so another boomer will turn 65, and we will be living the long anticipated Age Wave. In a sense then, 2010 marks the final year of preparation. Eventually the age wave, a global and not just a national phenomenon, will impact almost everything – housing, transportation, jobs and the economy, social services, etc.

Technology
The primary technology story is that developments in tech will lead the economic recovery in 2010. Among the leading innovations to watch for as they emerge into the market are wider deployment of true telepresence, early adoption of 3D television as 3D moves beyond the movies, strong growth in tablet communication devices from book readers to advanced internet tools, and very strong growth in mobile applications as more and more internet action moves from computers to hand held devices, mostly smart phones. But the number one tech story of 2010 may be the announcement of the $100 genome. Decoding a full human genome took millions of dollars to begin, then dropped into the hundreds of thousands, then the tens of thousands. On the horizon, to appear this year or soon after is the $100 genome – send in a cheek swab and get a full reading of what is currently known about your genetic make up. As this kind of cost level is reached we’ll see a quantum leap in utility of genomic knowledge.

Energy
2010 may be the year that Peak Oil is confirmed. At the very least the next decade will tell the story. By peak oil we mean the moment when oil production reaches its historical maximum, and we begin going down the backside of the curve. At the moment there will still be decades of oil use ahead, but the race to alternatives will intensify. Within the energy community debate has raged regarding whether a global peak was already reached in 2005 or 2007. Assuming the economic growth resumes in 2010, and thus eventually demand begins to grow, we should discover whether supplies can be increased, or not. Whatever the answer this will be important information.

The other important energy story of 2010 is natural gas. Huge increases in reserves are anticipated as more sophisticated methods for injecting liquid materials into fractured rock to force out previously inaccessible gas look promising. But there is a potential cloud on the horizon, which may come to a head in 2010 and that is impact of such development on ground water. Initially the industry suggested that as much as 90 percent of the injected material comes out with the gas, but actual experience is suggesting that as much as 80-90% of the injected material stays underground. Where this has potential impact on future water supply, look for the government to get involved, appropriately, in regulation.

Economy
I am among the relatively small number of forecasters who anticipates a more robust recovery in 2010 than the conventional wisdom assumes. I make this prediction based on three factors. First, the great recession, while triggered by the financial collapse, has turned out to resemble typical recessions in terms of inventory draw down. We are now at a point where inventories must be rebuilt, manufacturing indexes are looking more positive. If momentum builds then the recovery may look more traditional than expected. Second, people are simply tired of this recession. A great deal of economic activity depends on psychology. The holiday shopping period just completed suggests that people are interested in returning to normal, and again if momentum builds then this psychology will help. Finally, the global economy has become a driver rather than a result of the U.S. economy, to a noticeable degree. Thus as global growth picks up, especially in developing economic leaders, this will pull the U.S. along. For these reasons I expect that when 2010 closes we’ll conclude that the recovery, while not rapid, has been better than expected.

Jobs
Conventional wisdom is awash with the story that we are now entering a period of jobless growth, that even if the GDP grows, jobs will lag and may never come back. A permanent unemployment rate of 6-8% is forecast by some. All of this sounds suspiciously like the talk that followed the last great recession in 1981-82 and again in the early 1990's. I remember many predictions that a new era of jobless growth was at hand, that new technologies and globalization meant that jobs would simply never return to the U.S. Did not happen then. Will not happen now. It is completely logical to assume that job growth in 2010 will be slow, and we do have to recover 10 million jobs to get back to the 2007 starting line. That will take a while. History says jobs will return. Hysteria says they will never come back. Bet on history in 2010.

More Future Forecasts

As the year and the decade turned, I was invited by a variety of media outlets to contribute via interviews to articles looking ahead. Some looked at the coming decade, others at the coming year.

Two more are now available online. Wesley Hester and John Reid Blackwell penned a look at the past and future decade for the Richmond Times Dispatch, in their piece "Decade of low points broken up by occasional highlight." While mostly a review of history, with me we got into the age wave of 2010 to 2020 while other forecasters are cited on the economic future. This article was re-printed also at NBC13, the Birmingham, Alabama affiliate.

At the Montreal Gazette, Rene Bruemmer produced a comprehensive piece, "Welcome to the Future," with accompanying articles on whatever happened to the flying car, and 10 major innovations for the coming decade. He quoted me when I noted that in this next decade the concept of "going online" will disappear, even become quaint and forgotten, as we are always online. We also discussed energy and peak oil, electric cars, the health care future, and digital natives in the work force.

These are worth checking out, and I appreciated the chance to contribute.

I also interviewed with Esquire LatinAmerica, and with a couple of others, but no online sources yet appear.

In my next post you can catch up with my full outlook for 2010, which I recorded on December 30, 2009. Just waiting for the now produced video to appear on the video server sites. Later tonight I hope.

Update: I just was emailed the link to a longer interview with the Journal Media Group, which came out today. See "Peeking into 2010 with futurist Glen Hiemstra" by Elizabeth Griffin. We cover the economy, retail sales, housing, energy, health care, transportation, and professions and education.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of Sports – quoted in New York Times

Among several New Year articles for which I was interviewed, and which I'll summarize tomorrow in addition to laying out my outlook for 2010, this New York Times article by Harvey Araton stands out. Mr. Araton is a features columnist who asked what may happen with pro sports in the next decade. See "2020 Vision."

Creativity and Community: Notes from A European Visit

I recently returned from presenting a workshop at the European Conference on Creativity and Innovation in Brussels. The theme of the conference was "Make It Happen," with a focus on moving from the idea space, into implementation. Keynoters Kobus Neethling, Tim Hurson, Mark Raison, and others brought passionate perspectives to the task of realizing creative efforts, with an almost universal recommendation to envision going beyond what you had imagined.

Creative thinking and thinking about the future are two sides of the same coin. Creativity is often defined as the act of bringing something new, or novel, into being. Ideation -- coming up with ideas -- is a good first step. But it's not, obviously, the whole system. How to manage the energies and possibilities, to converge and select one option out of many, and bring as much creative passion to the articulation of the idea as to the idea itself, is a less-studied part of the process. Hence the conference theme.

A few days later, I was in central France, in the small city of Poitiers, where I used to live. There, by chance I had the opportunity to connect with a man named Jacky Denieul, who is involved in a program to bring creativity into community development, along the line of Richard Florida's work. The ambitious program to identify and nurture regional creativity draws upon culture, economy, environment, science, and connection to the land.

Once again, I thought about the power of future thinking and creativity. At Futurist.com, we write often about the city of the future, or the community of the future, with the implicit understanding that creativity is that force which will bring us from what is to what can be. To see creativity per se being brought into the process of community development, brings the implicit to the fore.

The whole trip was inspiring--with theory, practice, and vision contributing to the pervasive sense of a world full not only of possibilities, but also plans for making them happen.

Future of Health Care Reform in U.S., by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist & Speaker

Yesterday marked the death of Senator Edward Kennedy. This event turned my attention even more to the subject of health care reform in the United States. Early in the year, responding to Time Magazine, I suggested that health care reform was a fundamental innovation to help move us beyond the recession. I have little doubt that is true.

So, in a longer-than-blog-length article, I outline my experience and prediction regarding health care reform in the U.S. My prediction?

Prediction:
Health care reform with all four of the features I list will pass the House and the Senate. The House version will have a stronge public option, the Senate version a weaker one. The President will be forced to indicate his preference and he will side with a stronger public option, which will come out of conference committee. The house will pass it in a party line vote, the Senate will pass it in a near party line vote after parliamentary maneuvers allow a majority rather than a super majority vote. It may take until November but more likely will be done sooner.

This is almost inevitable, virtually guaranteed, no matter what you read or see in the press on a given day.

To understand why I believe this prediction is also a preferred future, check out this article at futurist.com.

More on possible pandemic flu and the future

An hour or two ago the World Health Organization raised the pandemic alert level for the Swine Flu from level 4 to level 5 (out of 6), meaning the WHO now believes a pandemic is imminent and that nations should now implement their pandemic preparedness plans.

Let's clarify what a pandemic is - technically the term simply means that a new infectuous disease has appeared that has spread more quickly than normal across a wide geographic region. It is not necessary that large numbers of people be killed by the disease to be considered a pandemic, only that the infection be widespread. By this definition the Swine Flu is likely to become, or already is, a pandemic, though its impacts may be contained and it may not be unusually deadly. Keep in mind that the normal, seasonal flu kills about 36,000 in the U.S. alone, each year, according the the Centers for Disease Control, and no pandemic warnings are issued about the normal flu.

Once again we are witnessing the value of the global communications network and its ability to keep the world informed during health emergencies as well as the ability to use this communication network to mobilize the government and scientific communities.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.