Are you an alien – DNA building-blocks from space found in meteorites

NASA recently reported that scientists have identified nucleobases that make up our genetic code in meteorites and that it appears they were created in space. It has been theorized that life may have actually migrated to Earth rather than spontaneously appearing here, and this kind of discovery supports that possibility. Popular Science has a nice story on the discovery, as does NASA itself.

Photo and illustration courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Chris Smith

Interestingly, the assumption about this material in the meteorites is not that they are passengers who just happened to be along for the ride, but that comets and asteroids may have the chemistry to actually manufacture the stuff of life. Either way, such research lends credence to the likelihood that life exists elsewhere, and the possibility that life here began somewhere else.

The Impending Dominance of the Electric Car

On May 4th I had the pleasure of attending a Washington Clean Technology Alliance (WCTA) Lunch Seminar to hear James Billmaier, author of JOLT! The Impending Dominance of the Electric Car and Why America Must Take Charge.

After listening to Jim speak, I was fully convinced that America will soon become an "electriconomy" as he puts it. The way he explained it, it will be similar to the evolution of the internet, which existed for a fair amount of time before it became easily accessible to the general public through the introduction of the internet browser. Soon electric cars will be mass produced, charging stations will be easily found, and battery life will last longer to make it not only feasible, but desirable to own an electric car as your primary vehicle.

Jim had a number of enlightening facts about the current gas economy as well. As much as we complain about gas prices, they are currently paying $9/gal in France and the U.S. is not even in the top 100 for gas prices around the world. As gas imports increase, jobs will be lost to overseas production. Some would argue that there is gas to be found within our nation, which is true, but not nearly enough to meet our current needs. A much brighter picture will be painted as energy production becomes a higher priority. There are many ways to keep this production within our borders and increase the number of jobs here with it. Currently the government is still subsidizing gas and defending the pipelines in the Middle East, but even on this uneven playing field the current electric technology is highly superior.

Some people are unnecessarily worried about our current electric grid being overwhelmed by the increasing amount of cars that will need to be charged. Jim put this in perspective for us and explained that electric companies currently produce enough energy to meet the highest demands during the day, but the demand lowers so dramatically at night that even with a conservative estimate, 100 million cars can be charged at night on the unused energy that is currently available. And the future of energy production will only increase that amount. Charging an electric vehicle is equivalent to hooking up a new fridge, NOT a new house. Even air conditioning units take up to 75% more watts than are used to charge an electric vehicle for a 40 mile commute, and AC is more of a luxury than a necessity in many places.

Gas continues to sound more and more wasteful as it is compared to energy use and dollars spent on electric cars. It takes 6-7 kilowatt hours to make 1 gallon of gas. Even one of the newest electric cars, the Nissan Leaf, goes 30 miles on less than 6 kilowatts! In 2010, on a good day, $1 could buy you enough gas to get about 8 miles in a standard car, but in an electric car that same $1 could take you 50 miles! For those interested in sustainability, the Nissan Leaf is made from 90% recycled material and is fully 95% recyclable. And the lithium that batteries are made from is also endlessly recyclable.

Jim currently has two fairly new cars that he told us about, one that runs on gas, and one Nissan Leaf that he could not bring himself to wait to buy. It sounded like he bought it based on ideals, but he drives it because it is such a comfortable and efficient ride. He said that 95% of his miles are driven in his electric car and the other one is kept around now for longer trips or weekend holidays. I had expected to be convinced by the end of his speech that I should read his book, but instead I am convinced that my next car will be electric. If you ever have the chance to hear James Billmaier speak, you should take it. Until then, I would highly recommend his book because if it is half as informative and entertaining as he is in person, it will be one of the best of the year.

He has an even better conclusion on his Jolt! website:

There is no longer any question of whether or not we will adopt an electric-based transportation system. We will. And the transition will come much more quickly than most “experts” predict. All major auto-makers have some type of plug-in vehicle coming out in the very near future, with the first cars due out at the end of 2010. The U.S. can’t afford to be left behind. But we’re going to need to move fast to become the undisputed market leader.

The good news is that we’re halfway there, at least in terms of ability. The U.S. has a well-established history of economic leadership and is renowned for its innovation. It also has a resourceful and skilled workforce able to capitalize on every aspect of the coming electriconomy, from conception and development to manufacture and delivery. In short, the U.S. workforce is a veritable Dream Team.

And the electric vehicle is a Dream Car. EVs are good for us individually. They’re good for us as a nation. And they’re good for the planet.

Hang on, America! The EV is going to take us on an amazing ride.

- James Billmaier

The Future of Music

I recently had the opportunity to interview musician Amanda Ray about her experiences and goals. She is an impressive artist with a great outlook on the future of music and positive change. She has recently written Surraeon, a sci-fi story that is currently under development as a musical album and as a film.

The full interview can be found in our Article Archives. Here are some highlights from our interview:

8. From your point of view, what is the future of music?
I think the future of music is bright, but I don’t think there is a future for the music industry the way we knew it. Like everything, change is the only constant. And I feel like technology has given us a clean canvas in which to create our dreams. Without corporations telling you who to like and listen to, we will see who the real creative artists are. It can be very challenging, but artists are forced to get creative with how they sustain themselves with their music. It’s not about copies anymore, in this device addicted world, it’s about access! And although I can go on and on with predictions, it’s really everyone’s guess to what the future holds in music. With respect to the record industry and corporations, it’s been a VERY long time since artists have been able to create without a mold, without a formula and without expectations.

We’re living in a DIY industry now and I think it will spawn a new generation of artists who will not be bound by the traditions of the music industry, and will be free to create and market music in new ways. And I don’t think anyone will specialize in just one area, they will know and be a part of every aspect of their art. We will also see more fans involved with their favorite artist music. Online fundraising campaigns such as Kickstarter and Indie Go Go will inspire other companies to help artists raise funds for their projects. This will and is, cutting out the middle men and even more financial gate keepers such as grants. Any artist who's even considered going down the grant road, understands how annoying and long the process is. Unfortunately, it still boils down to who you know, who likes you and if you fit into their mold or category. I also think that artists will start joining forces more in the future. Building websites that are genre specific or just several bands all on one site, selling access to music, concert videos and blogs.

9. How are you inspiring positive change through your music?
By creating honest, sincere music from the heart! Providing a window to an experience that we crave but are afraid to live. It’s not about creating a fake perfect utopian society but broadening our perception of where we see ourselves in 30 years. With thought provoking lyrics and moody cinematic music, it is my goal to create a soundtrack for our journey to perceiving a more favorable future.

[Note from Glen Hiemstra... I love this interview that Catherine did with Amanda Ray, musician, writer and artist. What caught our attention when she contacted us was her concept that images of the future matter, and that we lack positive images. That fits precisely with my approach to futuring. Check out the full interview, and Amanda's work.]

Outlook 2011 Video

Here is our new video summarizing my Outlook 2011. I wrote the outlook at the beginning of the year and we posted the original on January 3. The written version with more detail, links to resources and a recap of how accurate our Outlook 2010 was can be found in our blog archives. After multiple requests we have decided to produce this video version, as we have done the last several years. Enjoy!

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, author, consultant, blogger, internet video host and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Predictive modeling, future weather, and a forecast of Pirates

I loved this story today in the Seattle Times newspaper, about a presentation to a conference of 3500 scientists in the American Meteorological Society, by Jim Hansen. Hansen is an applied mathematician at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California. Mr. Hansen’s weather forecast: A Chance of Pirates.

Taking advantage of advances in computing power and in predictive modeling, Mr. Hansen is creating models of weather, ship traffic, Pirate tendencies, and other variables, as a way to predict where Pirate activity might occur. The weather matters, because today’s Pirates tend to operate in small boats that need relatively calm weather to be effective.

The hope is that by integrating even better data about weather, and satellite data on ship locations including real-time visual tracking, a model might be built that will predict where Pirate activity is most likely. Turns out this is hard, in big oceans. Knowing just the general area where Pirates are working is not sufficient to direct naval responses that prevent attacks.

Outlook 2011

Before we offer forecasts for 2011, let’s review how we did with Outlook 2010

Aging
2010 was indeed the final year of preparation for the age wave, but we made only modest progress in getting ready. The U.S. Health Care bill was the most positive step, as it included some needed adjustments to Medicare, and has the promise of restraining the cost of health care a bit. But as the year closed and the U.S. election took place, 2010 ended with the promise of threats to the social safety net in the U.S. austerity became the new mantra. This echos the political mood in Europe as well. Summary: The forecast was correct, but the policy reaction to the forecast fell short.

Technology
3D was indeed the primary technology development of the year, including the availability of 3D video recorders for personal video production. The consumer uptake of 3D was slow, as the technology was still new and content only now being widely developed. The $100 Genome did not appear in 2010, and in fact now looks perhaps four to ten years off. Summary: The 3D forecast was correct (and is now a common forecast of tech observers for 2011), while the $100 Genome was off-base.

Energy
I suggested that 2010 may be the year, and that the coming decade would certainly be the decade, when we discover that peak oil, defined as the moment when world oil production reaches its historical maximum, was imminent. However, 2010 saw increases in oil discoveries, and a continued slowing of demand growth, such that many experts now believe the peak may be several decades off. The International Energy Agency agrees when looking at supplies, but believes a peak in production could come sooner depending on government policies. 2010 did see intensified interest in alternative energy as forecast, particularly electric cars. Natural gas discoveries were enhanced by the process known as fracking, but, as forecast, the issue of long-term contamination of ground water became more controversial. Summary: Results were mixed – we learned more about Peak Oil, but the timing is more uncertain now than before.

Economy and Jobs
I forecast that 2010 would be a year of slow job growth in the U.S., but in contrast to most observers at the time, argued that we are not in for a period of jobless growth. In fact more than one million non-government jobs were created in 2010, the most since 2006. But this made barely a dent in unemployment figures. I also predicted a better than expected economic recovery in 2010, which by year-end looked accurate but barely. Still not robust, but better than expected. Summary: An accurate forecast as job growth accelerated but slowly. Long-term implications for recreating the 8 million jobs lost in the recession still look positive but will take years. This time, for the first time, it could be that replacement of workers via greater efficiency based on information technology will have a permanent impact.

Forecasts for 2011

Demographics and Social Policy
The age wave, which hit shore on January 1, 2011, becomes a big story finally, but unfortunately in a misleading way. There will be a concerted effort to use the age wave and government deficits to justify an effort to permanently cripple Social Security in the U.S. It is true that the Social Security Trust Fund is “where the money is” when you look at available tax money in the U.S. But it is not true, and never has been, that Social Security is on the verge of bankruptcy, or requires massive changes. Simply leaving things as they are enables a full payout of benefits until 2037. Minor changes like an increase in Social Security taxes of 1/20th of a percent per year for 20 years would make the system self-sustaining longer term. The key problem now is deciding what the Federal Government can stop spending on in order to repay the taxes borrowed from the Trust Fund for general use since the Reagan "reforms" of the early 1980's. There are only two realistic ways to create pools of money that are large enough - either raising general tax rates, or substantially decreasing military spending. Preserving Social Security in the U.S. will be more important than ever, as a declining percentage of aging workers will have company pension programs, and the self-funded 401K programs designed to take their place are both very insecure and on average too small to provide a reasonable retirement for more than half the population. A monumental fight over Social Security looms and the outcome will determine whether the U.S. slips back into significant poverty among the aged.

Technology
3D will continue to grow in the consumer space, but the biggest tech story of 2011 will be explosive growth of tablet computing. Tablets and smart phones will become the most common access devices for the Net by the end of the year.

The Smart Grid will be the biggest large-scale technology issue of the year, as the electricity industry moves more aggressively toward a smarter distribution system. A big issue will be developing the human resources needed to build the smart grid. The other large-scale technology issue will be the continued lagging of the U.S. compared to the global economic tigers in 21st Century development of high-speed transportation systems and hubs. The U.S. will need to get out of its current “can’t do” attitude soon, but this will not happen in 2011 given the political climate.

Environment
2011 will likely be a hot year once again, but the confusing weather signals that result, combined with the deliberate political confusion sown by those who want no aggressive climate policies mean that 2011 will see little progress on national and international policies to slow down climate change. But, interestingly, 2011 will see the most aggressive actions yet by private industry to improve their own profitability by adopting sustainable energy and environmental practices. This includes especially the production of more energy efficient autos, buildings, and appliances.

Energy
A consensus will form that Peak Oil is further in the future than thought a few years ago, unless there are policy decisions to decrease or eliminate the government subsidies provided to conventional fossil fuel production and to price the carbon emissions that come from burning fossil fuels. Since such policies are unlikely, growth in the production and use of fossil fuels is likely. Oil will approach $100 a barrel again, but stay a bit short as producing countries work very hard to keep the price around $90-95.

Economy
As we move through 2011 an economic recovery will gather momentum both nationally and globally. We are likely to see continued global growth in places like China of nearly 10%, in the U.S. of 3-4% and in Europe of 2-3%. In the U.S. this will mean job growth on the order of 1.5 to 2 million new jobs, still far short of "normal" growth after a recession, but as much as twice as good as 2010, which was the best year since 2006. However, gross GDP and employment statistics will tend to miss the deeper stories as the next economy emerges. One question which will become clearer during 2011 is whether we have indeed "reset" the economy, particularly in the U.S., at a lower, more frugal level. About half of the unemployed who found work in 2010 have begun new jobs paying less than the job they had lost in the recession. The other critical story is the continued bifurcation of the new economy into the very wealthy and the poor, with a loss of the middle class. Such a trend, if it continues, takes civilization back toward ancient times when such a split was the norm. Recent research has suggested that such societies are less happy, less stable, and less secure. It does not look like 2011 will be a year in which this trend is confronted, but eventually it must be addressed though social and economic policy.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, author, consultant, blogger, internet video host and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Striking a Balance: The Yin and Yang of Futuring

This is a guest blog by Brenda Cooper.

As long as I’ve been alive, humanity has obsessed over its demise - at its own hands. In second grade, stern teachers sent me crawling under desks to avoid nuclear war (talk about a culture of fear – today has nothing on the sixties). Now we are convinced that climate change will do us all in. Both, by the way, remain real threats. It’s important to guard against evil. Think of that as the yang of futuring, whether done over the dinner table, around the water cooler, or from the dais. But I think we’re missing the yin: we’re failing to notice the good all around us.

Back in the crawling under desks part of my life, people who lived in other countries were unreachable to me, and had I wanted to talk to one, it would have cost a lot of money. Today, I have a phone that’s also a camera and a link to a world of information and entertainment – and to people all over the globe. There’s a good chance I can avoid or find a cure for most diseases that could directly affect me. We’re finally developing a real space industry (sorry – I’m a geek – but whatever it is you love, there is almost undoubtedly progress).

Take the climate change problem. It feels intractable. Old entrenched industries are fighting tooth and nail to hang on to things we KNOW are bad for us (remember the tobacco industry). But people all over the world are working on it. American car companies are coming out with good electric cars, China is building green cities, and here at home, in the city where I work, we have a green building program and a green business program. For all that it feels too slow (may be too slow), we’re changing fast on this one as a society. When I drive from here to Oregon, I go through a forest of futuristic new white windmills. I think in almost every pain point where technology changes make a difference (travel, carbon, medicine, communication) we’re changing faster than ever before, and our intent is good. We are a capable species.

Yet I hear more fear of the future than excitement, more worry about what we’re doing than celebration of it. We could do with a little balance. I am not suggesting we relax our vigilance about climate change or terrorism or even nuclear war. But we could pay attention to the good as well. I hope we all work on that for 2011.

Travel to Mars in 39 days – Mars is closer because of SpaceX

If you could go to Mars in 39 days and return in the same amount of time, would you go? I would. The opportunity for someone, someday to do just that became a step closer to reality today, with the successful launch, orbit, re-entry, and recovery of the SpaceX Dragon spaceship.

But, SpaceX and Dragon are aimed at Earth orbit operations, not Mars, and so how are the two destinations connected?

First, SpaceX, the company founded by Elon Musk, made history yesterday and today, as indicated in their press release:

"SpaceX launched its Dragon spacecraft into low-Earth orbit atop a Falcon 9 rocket at 10:43 AM EST from Launch Complex 40 at the Air Force Station at Cape Canaveral.

"The Dragon spacecraft orbited the Earth at speeds greater than 17,000 miles per hour, reentered the Earth’s atmosphere, and landed in the Pacific Ocean shortly after 2:00 PM EST.

"This marks the first time a commercial company has successfully recovered a spacecraft reentering from low-Earth orbit. It is a feat performed by only six nations or government agencies: the United States, Russia, China, Japan, India, and the European Space Agency."

You can see more on the story here.

If we dig deeper we find that this launch program was supported though not fully paid for by NASA. NASA’s hope and plan is to turn the low-earth orbit business over to private companies like SpaceX, and thus free up NASA’s limited resources to concentrate on missions to far away destinations, like Mars.

That is where another private company comes in, AdAstra Rocket Company (AARC), whose CEO is former astronaut Franklin Chang Diaz. This company is also working with NASA, to develop the Vasimr plasma engine. Such an engine will use a small nuclear reactor to generate electricity, which in turn transforms hydrogen gas into plasma, generating a thrust level capable of speeds sufficient to get to Mars in 39 days. This is in contrast to the current journey of about two years for the round trip and even that requires selecting a very limited launch window that come around only every 25 months. Prototypes of the Vasimr engine have been successfully fired on earth, and AARC plans a test in space at the Space Station in the coming years in hopes of being operational by 2020.

Obviously, then, SpaceX becomes critical in ferrying people and materials into orbit for such testing, so that trips to Mars become feasible.

And, in fact about three years ago at a Future In Review conference I attended a small seminar with Elon Musk of SpaceX, where he described his own dreams of travel to Mars, in a way that was inspiring and confident. Musk said he expected people to be traveling to Mars by 2030, and I certainly hope he was right.

Moving Data at Light Speed in the Near Future

In this month’s issue of Seattle Business magazine the top story is about Washington’s Leading Inventors. The product that I am most looking forward to is from Lightfleet. The company is developing a new optical system that replaces all of the switches and most of the wires in a traditional computer system with light, which allows data to be transferred at, you guessed it, light speed between data nodes. With their breakthrough, throughput will only be limited by the consumer’s ability to upload and process data and not by the fabric’s ability to transmit and receive data. Lightfleet has already sold their innovative technology to Microsoft and I look forward to the changes we'll see when its use becomes more widespread.

10 Big Green Ideas

(With this blog entry we welcome Catherine Otten back to Futurist.com, where she is now Director of Communications and Programs. Catherine is particularly committed to ideas that improve the environment, so in addition to her administrative duties we look forward to future blog entries like this.)

Newsweek recently ran an article (in their Oct. 25 issue) called 10 Big Green Ideas. They truly are big ideas that show the many different routes to the future of sustainability. As Margaret Mead once said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” This list is a quick look at some of the amazing ideas coming from some of those thoughtful citizens.

1. Make a Greener Burger – Blairo Maggi has recently started promoting “sustainable development,” “carbon credits,” “avoided deforestation” – and green beef. He has signed moratoriums on selling beef from recently deforested lands and has been urging local ranchers and meatpackers to clean up their acts.

2. Invest in the Improbable – Vinod Khosla, Sun Microsystems cofounder, is betting on green-tech startups. “I like technologies that have a 90 percent chance of failure,” he says, “because a 10 percent chance of making 100 times your money is better than an 80 percent chance of doubling your money.”

3. Get Out of the Gulf – Jackie Savitz, a political party analyst with the ocean-advocacy group Oceana, sees a fairly simple way to get out the gulf completely. All we have to do is electrify 10 percent of America’s cars by 2020, switch oil-based power plants to clean electric ones, update one quarter of oil-heated homes to electric power, and phase in all available non-feedstock biofuels.

4. Catch a Wave – In March, 10 energy firms were allowed to set up off the coast of Scotland and pilot plants have also been set up in Portugal, Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Northeastern United States.

5. Hug a Nuke – Traditionally, nuclear power plants use enriched uranium to generate power. Enrichment itself is inefficient and up to 92 percent of uranium is cast aside as “depleted uranium”. TerraPower has come up with a plan to run an entire plant with depleted uranium.

6. Turn Smoke Into Rocks – Calera has developed a process that takes CO2 from a power-plant smokestack and turns it into cement.

7. Drink Your Garbage – Singapore installed a system two years ago that turns sewage into drinking water and now WaterCAMPWS is working on doing it in the U.S.

8. Hire a Microbe – In Minneapolis, BioCee is working on microbes that soak up sunlight and carbon dioxide and convert it into a substitute for petroleum. Stanford discovered a bug that uses sunlight to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. In California, Amyris created genetically modified yeast that produces something like gasoline.

9. Shout it Out Loud – A tiny NGO in Beijing, the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, collects government data about local suppliers that are violating environmental standards and finds out which international companies the violators are connected with. They then work with foreign non-profits to pressure the big international companies to clean up their act.

10. Lighten Up – LED bulbs may cost more, but they can save a fortune on your electric bill. LED Savings and Solutions helps companies retrofit their buildings to reduce energy and save thousands each month.