Transportation: Vision 2050

On January 25, 2011 President Barak Obama will deliver the 2011 "State of the Union" address to the U.S. Congress and the nation. The text of the speech has not yet been released, but reports are that among other things the President will call for are national investments to keep the United States competitive in the future global economy. The idea of investments is a very tough sell in the United States these days, as it is in some other parts of the world. Cutting spending and doing nothing but the bare minimum is the more popularly touted public policy.

As one who has worked with transportation policy planners on various projects over the past decade and half, I have become aware of the growing backlog of infrastructure needs in the United States, needs that apply to all transportation modes, from roads and bridges, to air traffic control systems and airports, to rail and port facilities. Much that was built in the heady days when America believed in the future is now in need of repair or modernization, and in addition we would benefit from new investment in infrastructure like high-speed trains.

Such investments require leadership commitment, public support, and a vision of what is preferred. The Futurist.com projects that I mentioned have all been, in one way or another, tied to the development of long-term vision. Recently we came across a report on a project that I had a role in, late in the year 2000, a report issued as the new Bush administration came into power in January-February 2001, ten years ago. This was a project of the US Department of Transportation, entitled Vision 2050: An Integration National Transportation System.

As a report of the outgoing USDOT leadership to the in-coming President of another political party, the recommendations received a predictable reception, which is to say not much of a reception at all. For several years the report was available on various Federal Government websites, but access has gradually disappeared. So, we are making the report avaialable here for everyone. Here's the PDF. You can also find the report at archives located at MIT and at Whitehouse.gov.

My role in the project was to design and lead one of three national workshops that brought together experts for several days of exploring future trends, possibilities, and recommendations for a long-term vision. In doing that work in the Fall of 2000 I met Mark Safford, then of the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, with whom I later worked on other projects, and who has also been a contributing writer here at Futurist.com.

Returning to that now ten-year old Vision, I am struck by several things. First, the vision was quite bold, and still relevant today.

Vision 2050:

An integrated national transportation system that can economically move anyone and anything, anywhere, anytime, on time;

A transportation system without fatalities and injuries; and

A transportation system that is not dependent on foreign energy and is compatible with the environment

Second, the report argued that short-term, incremental, and piecemeal fixes to the transportation system, while needed, are not sufficient to build an integrated national transportation system. We really were trying to look at the whole system. This is an important point as we, in 2011, discuss global competitiveness simultaneously with an emphasis on budget cuts. Thinking systemically is more important that ever.

Third, it was in this project that I met a representative of the Rocky Mountain Institute and learned much more about the potential of smarter and lighter vehicles that could be radically safe and fully independent of foreign oil. The report emphasized the possibilities for intelligent transportation systems, virtual communication, electric personal transportation, and integrated modes of transportation.

Finally, going back to the report now I was reminded of a common experience with long-term vision. Even though the report disappeared into the archives under the new administration at the time, the act of putting a vision out there increases the conversation about the ideas, and makes the vision more likely to happen. I remember a city manager who told me once, several years after a community vision effort that I led, that he had merely "put the vision in a drawer." Every now and then he would take it out, and wonder why they weren't doing more to implement the vision. Until, one day, he took the vision out, re-read it and thought, "Wait a minute, it has all come true, we've accomplished the vision." It was, he said, an illustration of the "mystical power of long-term vision." I've always liked that. If you look at the three-point vision, above, you can see that we are working toward it, even when we think we are not.

The report was also featured in a small study comparing long term visions.

Outlook 2011

Before we offer forecasts for 2011, let’s review how we did with Outlook 2010

Aging
2010 was indeed the final year of preparation for the age wave, but we made only modest progress in getting ready. The U.S. Health Care bill was the most positive step, as it included some needed adjustments to Medicare, and has the promise of restraining the cost of health care a bit. But as the year closed and the U.S. election took place, 2010 ended with the promise of threats to the social safety net in the U.S. austerity became the new mantra. This echos the political mood in Europe as well. Summary: The forecast was correct, but the policy reaction to the forecast fell short.

Technology
3D was indeed the primary technology development of the year, including the availability of 3D video recorders for personal video production. The consumer uptake of 3D was slow, as the technology was still new and content only now being widely developed. The $100 Genome did not appear in 2010, and in fact now looks perhaps four to ten years off. Summary: The 3D forecast was correct (and is now a common forecast of tech observers for 2011), while the $100 Genome was off-base.

Energy
I suggested that 2010 may be the year, and that the coming decade would certainly be the decade, when we discover that peak oil, defined as the moment when world oil production reaches its historical maximum, was imminent. However, 2010 saw increases in oil discoveries, and a continued slowing of demand growth, such that many experts now believe the peak may be several decades off. The International Energy Agency agrees when looking at supplies, but believes a peak in production could come sooner depending on government policies. 2010 did see intensified interest in alternative energy as forecast, particularly electric cars. Natural gas discoveries were enhanced by the process known as fracking, but, as forecast, the issue of long-term contamination of ground water became more controversial. Summary: Results were mixed – we learned more about Peak Oil, but the timing is more uncertain now than before.

Economy and Jobs
I forecast that 2010 would be a year of slow job growth in the U.S., but in contrast to most observers at the time, argued that we are not in for a period of jobless growth. In fact more than one million non-government jobs were created in 2010, the most since 2006. But this made barely a dent in unemployment figures. I also predicted a better than expected economic recovery in 2010, which by year-end looked accurate but barely. Still not robust, but better than expected. Summary: An accurate forecast as job growth accelerated but slowly. Long-term implications for recreating the 8 million jobs lost in the recession still look positive but will take years. This time, for the first time, it could be that replacement of workers via greater efficiency based on information technology will have a permanent impact.

Forecasts for 2011

Demographics and Social Policy
The age wave, which hit shore on January 1, 2011, becomes a big story finally, but unfortunately in a misleading way. There will be a concerted effort to use the age wave and government deficits to justify an effort to permanently cripple Social Security in the U.S. It is true that the Social Security Trust Fund is “where the money is” when you look at available tax money in the U.S. But it is not true, and never has been, that Social Security is on the verge of bankruptcy, or requires massive changes. Simply leaving things as they are enables a full payout of benefits until 2037. Minor changes like an increase in Social Security taxes of 1/20th of a percent per year for 20 years would make the system self-sustaining longer term. The key problem now is deciding what the Federal Government can stop spending on in order to repay the taxes borrowed from the Trust Fund for general use since the Reagan "reforms" of the early 1980's. There are only two realistic ways to create pools of money that are large enough - either raising general tax rates, or substantially decreasing military spending. Preserving Social Security in the U.S. will be more important than ever, as a declining percentage of aging workers will have company pension programs, and the self-funded 401K programs designed to take their place are both very insecure and on average too small to provide a reasonable retirement for more than half the population. A monumental fight over Social Security looms and the outcome will determine whether the U.S. slips back into significant poverty among the aged.

Technology
3D will continue to grow in the consumer space, but the biggest tech story of 2011 will be explosive growth of tablet computing. Tablets and smart phones will become the most common access devices for the Net by the end of the year.

The Smart Grid will be the biggest large-scale technology issue of the year, as the electricity industry moves more aggressively toward a smarter distribution system. A big issue will be developing the human resources needed to build the smart grid. The other large-scale technology issue will be the continued lagging of the U.S. compared to the global economic tigers in 21st Century development of high-speed transportation systems and hubs. The U.S. will need to get out of its current “can’t do” attitude soon, but this will not happen in 2011 given the political climate.

Environment
2011 will likely be a hot year once again, but the confusing weather signals that result, combined with the deliberate political confusion sown by those who want no aggressive climate policies mean that 2011 will see little progress on national and international policies to slow down climate change. But, interestingly, 2011 will see the most aggressive actions yet by private industry to improve their own profitability by adopting sustainable energy and environmental practices. This includes especially the production of more energy efficient autos, buildings, and appliances.

Energy
A consensus will form that Peak Oil is further in the future than thought a few years ago, unless there are policy decisions to decrease or eliminate the government subsidies provided to conventional fossil fuel production and to price the carbon emissions that come from burning fossil fuels. Since such policies are unlikely, growth in the production and use of fossil fuels is likely. Oil will approach $100 a barrel again, but stay a bit short as producing countries work very hard to keep the price around $90-95.

Economy
As we move through 2011 an economic recovery will gather momentum both nationally and globally. We are likely to see continued global growth in places like China of nearly 10%, in the U.S. of 3-4% and in Europe of 2-3%. In the U.S. this will mean job growth on the order of 1.5 to 2 million new jobs, still far short of "normal" growth after a recession, but as much as twice as good as 2010, which was the best year since 2006. However, gross GDP and employment statistics will tend to miss the deeper stories as the next economy emerges. One question which will become clearer during 2011 is whether we have indeed "reset" the economy, particularly in the U.S., at a lower, more frugal level. About half of the unemployed who found work in 2010 have begun new jobs paying less than the job they had lost in the recession. The other critical story is the continued bifurcation of the new economy into the very wealthy and the poor, with a loss of the middle class. Such a trend, if it continues, takes civilization back toward ancient times when such a split was the norm. Recent research has suggested that such societies are less happy, less stable, and less secure. It does not look like 2011 will be a year in which this trend is confronted, but eventually it must be addressed though social and economic policy.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, author, consultant, blogger, internet video host and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Striking a Balance: The Yin and Yang of Futuring

This is a guest blog by Brenda Cooper.

As long as I’ve been alive, humanity has obsessed over its demise - at its own hands. In second grade, stern teachers sent me crawling under desks to avoid nuclear war (talk about a culture of fear – today has nothing on the sixties). Now we are convinced that climate change will do us all in. Both, by the way, remain real threats. It’s important to guard against evil. Think of that as the yang of futuring, whether done over the dinner table, around the water cooler, or from the dais. But I think we’re missing the yin: we’re failing to notice the good all around us.

Back in the crawling under desks part of my life, people who lived in other countries were unreachable to me, and had I wanted to talk to one, it would have cost a lot of money. Today, I have a phone that’s also a camera and a link to a world of information and entertainment – and to people all over the globe. There’s a good chance I can avoid or find a cure for most diseases that could directly affect me. We’re finally developing a real space industry (sorry – I’m a geek – but whatever it is you love, there is almost undoubtedly progress).

Take the climate change problem. It feels intractable. Old entrenched industries are fighting tooth and nail to hang on to things we KNOW are bad for us (remember the tobacco industry). But people all over the world are working on it. American car companies are coming out with good electric cars, China is building green cities, and here at home, in the city where I work, we have a green building program and a green business program. For all that it feels too slow (may be too slow), we’re changing fast on this one as a society. When I drive from here to Oregon, I go through a forest of futuristic new white windmills. I think in almost every pain point where technology changes make a difference (travel, carbon, medicine, communication) we’re changing faster than ever before, and our intent is good. We are a capable species.

Yet I hear more fear of the future than excitement, more worry about what we’re doing than celebration of it. We could do with a little balance. I am not suggesting we relax our vigilance about climate change or terrorism or even nuclear war. But we could pay attention to the good as well. I hope we all work on that for 2011.

Keynote Speech for SONAE Finov 2010 – Reflections

It was my favorite keynote speech of the year, and one we'll leave up here for the holiday break, with Happy Holiday wishes to everyone.

The event was FINOV 2010, an annual event of the SONAE company at which they honor individuals and teams for the innovations of the past year. This year the conference took place in a centuries old former monastery in Porto, Portugal, a spectacular setting.

I was not familiar with Sonae when they first contacted me, but soon learned that they are the largest employer in Portugal with nearly 50,000 employees and with an expanding international presence. The company began in 1959 manufacturing wood panels. From that modest beginning the company has grown into a diverse conglomerate. They continue to manufacture panels, but that has become a small part of the business. Now Sonae is known as a retailer and developer, as they build and operate “hypermarkets” and shopping centers in Portugal and elsewhere in the world. From that they have branched into specialty stores including mobile phones and networks with some 15 brands. They own hotel and resort properties as well.

While in Porto I was escorted on an extensive visit of the new Gold Level LEED Certified headquarters for Sonae Capital, as well as distribution centers, stores and a shopping center. What is evident is that Sonae has a real commitment to innovation, sustainability, and quality. They have a very deliberate strategy to encourage innovation throughout the company, and the FINOV conference is the annual culmination of that.

In my program I was asked to address both the longer-term megatrends, and specific trends and expectations in manufacturing and building supplies, mobile communications and IT, consumers and retail, tourism, and more.

Glen with CEO Paulo Azevedo on his right, Chairman Belmiro de Azevedo on his left, and Cathy O'Dowd, Mt. Everest climber and another speaker on the end.






The take-away for me was that Sonae is a company to pay attention to as a model of sustainability, and of building a culture of innovation.

The full video of my speech is posted here. You can also find this speech along with many others on our Futurist Keynote Videos page and our Featured Videos page.

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4 Trends that will Drive the Next Economy

This is a guest blog by Jean Brittingham.

I’ve been a little behind on blogging because we are working feverishly on our book—The SmartGirls’ Way. It’s very exciting to see it coming together. In the book we discuss the characteristics, strengths and success stories of women entrepreneurs and the critical role that women will play in the Next Economy. Today I thought I’d share my thoughts about this new economy as I see it evolving.

The real recovery from the “great recession” will come with some major changes that portend good things for entrepreneurs. First, there is near-consensus that the recovery cannot be built on consumption as it has reigned in the last 50 or so years. Resources are too limited, the planet is too fragile and large corporations that supported this consumption too easily become institutions unto themselves that care only for their own future and their own profits and fail in a huge and costly manner.

Instead we should begin to envision and shape the next economy—one that is focused on creating a new solid economic base, is powered by a low-or no carbon energy source, is driven by innovation, transparency and collaborative business models and creates opportunity across the entire spectrum of social-economic reality.

There are many thoughts and ideas out there about what will drive and create this new economy. I believe it will be driven by the following four trends:

1. A resource-constrained environment on a health-challenged planet
2. The creation of “mega-intelligence” through collaborations that create in-depth knowledge and insights in the fields of science and technology
3. A massive amplification of creativity that feeds innovation
4. The rise of entrepreneurial collaboratives

Let’s first look at the issues related to a resource-constrained planet. This is not a hypothesis but rather our reality. Peak oil is around the corner. Coal, while abundant, is a major contributor to unhealthy air and global warming. Increasingly, we will have to learn how to reuse what we have already used and treat the planet as the amazing life support system that it is. This one truth has to be embraced—the planet does not exist for the benefit of the economy. It just exists. If we foul it forever, we are truly lost.

But an economy that benefits humankind, supports the development of peaceful society on earth, and sustains our life-support planet infinitely is not only possible but we can actually begin to see how we will get there.

Mega-intelligence as I am talking about it here is not a new field of study of the so-called super class of genius. I don’t mean to be dismissive, but if brilliant individuals could save the world, we would certainly be in a different spot right now. More appropriately, this term refers to the combined or collective intelligence that can be put to a problem through the connectivity and transparency afforded by increasing ubiquitous technology. Our digital connections have taken us well beyond any boundary condition previously thought of around the internet (for those who like to think about limitations) to a place where individuals of different cultures and language are collaborating on projects ranging from nuclear energy to music in the “cloud” and we are lending our personal computing ability to work 24/7 on the worlds most pressing problems—at least those that can be approached through 0s and 1s.

We are at the edge of knowing how to harness and focus this intelligence and the success of recent movements ranging from politics to science assures us that we will solve many more problems together than we have even dared to dream of by ourselves.

Creativity is fuel. It generates momentum and optimism. A wonderful/horrible truth of human nature is that when pushed to the limit, we get very creative. Our survival instinct is strong and often kicks it into high gear to help us out of a tight spot.

The current economic reset represents just such a tight spot. Even if you don’t understand or care much about economics, it’s clear that something dramatically different is afoot. Not only is a rebound to the old consumptive habits unlikely—most of us don’t seem to want it. But we aren’t excited about a future that is less interesting or comfortable either. So things are getting creative. Creative ways of working and living, of finding value propositions and new business models and creative about collaboration and wealth creation. Creativity and urgency have energized some amazing collaboratives and innovations.

And finally, whether as a result or a response, the willingness to exercise our entrepreneurial spirit has never been higher. Whether in the clean-energy economy, social enterprises focused on creating breakthroughs in traditionally underserved communities or as spin-offs and internal “tanks” in the big dog corporations, the fall of the old economy has seen the rise of entrepreneurs.

Polar opposites come together to pave the way to a future that is more vibrant, resilient and flexible. A world where entrepreneurial spirit and self-reliance is augmented and magnified by a connected creativity supported by technology that builds communities that learn, grow and make a living together.

You can see why I think the entrepreneurial future is one where women will thrive.
Success in the future will likely be measured more by the quality of your experiences than the 0s after your income bracket. Your net contribution to life will matter more than your net worth. And the inheritances your grandkids will care about are great communities, interesting work and a healthy planet.

CarbonFree Partner of Carbonfund.org

At Futurist.com we know that it takes a lot of travelling to fulfill all the duties of a world renowned speaker such as Glen. We have recently taken action to offset all of the carbon that his travelling produces in addition to offsetting the emissions of the rest of our business. Using the carbon calculator at Carbonfund.org we estimated that Futurist.com generates a total of 32 tons of carbon. Carbonfund.org estimates that most small businesses generate 35 tons, so to be on the safe side, we chose to offset a full 35 tons. In doing so, we are proud to share that we have become a CarbonFree Partner of Carbonfund.org. All proceeds of Carbonfund.org are used to fund unique, third-party verified projects in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and reforestation. We encourage you to join us in offsetting some or all of your own carbon emissions with this great non-profit.

10 Big Green Ideas

(With this blog entry we welcome Catherine Otten back to Futurist.com, where she is now Director of Communications and Programs. Catherine is particularly committed to ideas that improve the environment, so in addition to her administrative duties we look forward to future blog entries like this.)

Newsweek recently ran an article (in their Oct. 25 issue) called 10 Big Green Ideas. They truly are big ideas that show the many different routes to the future of sustainability. As Margaret Mead once said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” This list is a quick look at some of the amazing ideas coming from some of those thoughtful citizens.

1. Make a Greener Burger – Blairo Maggi has recently started promoting “sustainable development,” “carbon credits,” “avoided deforestation” – and green beef. He has signed moratoriums on selling beef from recently deforested lands and has been urging local ranchers and meatpackers to clean up their acts.

2. Invest in the Improbable – Vinod Khosla, Sun Microsystems cofounder, is betting on green-tech startups. “I like technologies that have a 90 percent chance of failure,” he says, “because a 10 percent chance of making 100 times your money is better than an 80 percent chance of doubling your money.”

3. Get Out of the Gulf – Jackie Savitz, a political party analyst with the ocean-advocacy group Oceana, sees a fairly simple way to get out the gulf completely. All we have to do is electrify 10 percent of America’s cars by 2020, switch oil-based power plants to clean electric ones, update one quarter of oil-heated homes to electric power, and phase in all available non-feedstock biofuels.

4. Catch a Wave – In March, 10 energy firms were allowed to set up off the coast of Scotland and pilot plants have also been set up in Portugal, Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Northeastern United States.

5. Hug a Nuke – Traditionally, nuclear power plants use enriched uranium to generate power. Enrichment itself is inefficient and up to 92 percent of uranium is cast aside as “depleted uranium”. TerraPower has come up with a plan to run an entire plant with depleted uranium.

6. Turn Smoke Into Rocks – Calera has developed a process that takes CO2 from a power-plant smokestack and turns it into cement.

7. Drink Your Garbage – Singapore installed a system two years ago that turns sewage into drinking water and now WaterCAMPWS is working on doing it in the U.S.

8. Hire a Microbe – In Minneapolis, BioCee is working on microbes that soak up sunlight and carbon dioxide and convert it into a substitute for petroleum. Stanford discovered a bug that uses sunlight to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. In California, Amyris created genetically modified yeast that produces something like gasoline.

9. Shout it Out Loud – A tiny NGO in Beijing, the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, collects government data about local suppliers that are violating environmental standards and finds out which international companies the violators are connected with. They then work with foreign non-profits to pressure the big international companies to clean up their act.

10. Lighten Up – LED bulbs may cost more, but they can save a fortune on your electric bill. LED Savings and Solutions helps companies retrofit their buildings to reduce energy and save thousands each month.

Growing the Idaho Economy: Moving into the Future

I was born in the beautiful state of Idaho, and lived there the first decade of my life. Consequently, I always look forward to opportunities to work with consulting clients in Idaho as I feel an affinity for the place.

This year one of my major projects involved assisting the State of Idaho Transportation Department in a long-range planning effort that they will complete toward the end of 2010. My assigned task was to produce a report in late summer on the future economy of Idaho as it interacts with transportation infrastructure, with a 20-30 year time horizon.

To conduct this study I enlisted the assistance of two colleagues, Art Hiemstra who has decades of experience in investment banking in early stage companies, and Dennis Walsh, a Canadian environmental futurist who was the first publisher of Green at Work.

The result was comprehensive and forward looking, a report that sets the stage with the evolving economic environment shaping the future of Idaho, the necessity of competing on a world class level, opportunities we see for Idaho, risks to the future, strategic implications for transportation planning, and several case studies of other regions that have envisioned their futures for comparison.

I think the most intriguing idea suggested is that the state of Idaho, known historically for agriculture and outdoor recreation and more recently as a center for technology, has the opportunity to position itself for leadership in next generation energy development. We in fact proposed the establishment of the "Sunrise Energy Corridor" stretching across most of the southern area of the state, where there is respected national lab, great university resources, entrepreneurs in solar and wind, and, lots of sunshine.

The full report, "Growing the Idaho Economy, Moving Into the Future" can be found here on their website. We invite you to take a look. (It is a large pdf file, 20+MB.)

Design Futurist

The future of fashion is no longer just about how you look; it’s about how your clothes were made and what materials were used in the process. Natalia Allen was appalled by the practices of the fashion industry. “We’ve been taught to design recklessly,” she said. “We move from season to season, reverie to reverie, inspiration to inspiration.” So she founded Design Futurist to help create sustainable solutions to these problems. UTNE magazine said, "8,000 chemicals were used to make the clothes in your closet. Approximately 1,800 gallons of fresh water were used to manufacture the jeans you’re wearing right now. All-too-commonplace numbers like these make it clear that the fashion industry needs an eco-makeover. Natalia Allen is up for the challenge. She is featured in the current issue of UTNE as the “Conscientious Fashionista" as she continues to team up with high profile clients such as Calvin Klein, Quicksilver, and DKNY to help implement sustainable methods and materials.

This week the Social Ventures Network - Fall Invitational will bring together a vibrant community of social entrepreneurs to explore new ways to create a just economy, strengthen their collective impact, and share resources and experiences in leading sustainable enterprises. Natalia will present the remarkable work of her firm Design Futurist to inspire and inform fellow entrepreneurs.

In this video, Design Futurist gives a quick explanation of some of the new sustainable materials that are available as well as some advice on how to be more sustainable in the rest of your life.

Underwater view is not clear

If you missed it today, this underwater diving expedition for ABC news by Philippe Cousteau Jr. and Sam Champion is worth watching. I have a foreboding that humans will sacrifice just about anything to acquire the last drops of oil, no matter the risks or the alternatives. I am not sure why we are so terrified of changing the energy picture.