Futurist.com: Futurist Speaker Glen Hiemstra » Environment & Energy

10 Best Innovations of 2011

Mallory Smith — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 08:00:17 +0000

Popular Science recently featured the 100 Best Innovations of the Year. Here are 10 of the most exciting and interesting ones.

Recreation:
Lifesaving Wetsuit
The Billabong V1 is more than just a wetsuit. This suit inflates a bladder in the back of the suit once an attached ripcord is pulled, helping the wearer float in case of an emergency. Learn more from Billabong.

Engineering:
Versabar VB10000
This rig remover can unearth an entire oil rig from under water in a few short hours and for a quarter of the price. The Versabar VB10000 is extremely necessary, as the U.S. has identified 1,800 rigs that have to be excavated within 10 years.

Green Tech:
Bio Soil Enhancers Forage Boost
These bio soil enhancers raise productivity and lower watering needs. Grass yields increase by 20% over standard fertilizer. Learn more about the inventors at AuroraAgra, LLC.

Wysips
The world’s first transparent photovoltaic film. Wysips turn almost anything into a power source. This film has thin strips filled with solar cells alternating with transparent areas, so it appears transparent has thousands of potential applications.

Health:
Diagnostics for All
All it takes is a drop of blood on a stamp-size paper chip and in 15 minutes a color will appear that indicates liver health. Diagnostics for All’s “chip lab” costs less than a penny to make and allows patients to pay about a nickel for treatment.

Avita/ReCell Spray-on-Skin
ReCell Spray-On-Skin grows cells quickly and applies new skin to a bad burn, helping it heal more quickly.

Aviation and Space:
Messenger
NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab’s Messenger probe was the first spacecraft to enter Mercury’s orbit. The probe sent back the first close-up photos taken of Mercury since 1975.

Security:
Recon Scout XT
This bot is tough enough to be thrown into any environment, even through a window, beaming back to its handler live video footage.

Gadgets:
Eye-Fi Direct Mode
Eye-Fi SD cards do not need Wi-Fi to share photos and video from a camera on the Web. All you need is a location with cell service and you can download, upload and share through e-mail any photos you want.

Home Entertainment:
Samsung SUR40 for Microsoft Surface
This 40-inch thin tabletop computer sees and responds to whatever gets placed on it.

6 Global destinations to see before they are gone

Glen Hiemstra — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 08:00:31 +0000

Here is our list of six global destinations to see before they likely disappear beneath the waves of climate change. It is probable, say experts, that these places must be seen in the next 50-100 years or it will be too late. Even aggressive action to limit carbon and other emissions is unlikely to change the current momentum of climate change in this century. We’ll not get into whether this is a false alarm, or what the causes for climate change might be. We’ll just say if you have the time and the resources, these are very cool places to visit; if they are still there a hundred years from now, all the better, but if not, you will have seen them when you were able to.

The Arctic ice cap in the summer

Reports are that summer ice in the Arctic Ocean reached either its lowest recorded level or second lowest in 2011. This suggests that predictions of a near ice free Arctic in the late summer by the year 2050 may be more likely. So if you want to stand on the North Pole in August, go now. If you want to kayak over the North Pole wait a few years and you may be able to.

Island nations

Tuvalu – Islands on the frontline of Climate Change from panos pictures on Vimeo.

Low level island nations like Micronesia (great ABC video clip), the Marshall Islands, the Maldives, and Tuvalu are among those threatened by rising sea levels, with effects already visible in all of these places. Some of these nations expect to essentially disappear in this century.

Venice

City of Burano, Islands of Venice in 2011

This is one of my personal favorite places. My wife and have spent many wonderful days over several trips exploring the city and its surrounding environs. On one visit we went down the hotel stairs the first morning into a lobby under 2 feet of water and spent that trip walking raised boardwalks around the city. It was charming and beautiful in its own way. But now these floods happen up to 100 times a year, native Venetians continue to vacate the city (more because of its tourist driven economy than flooding, so far), and there are predictions that the city may be essentially abandoned by 2050.

Glacier Park Glaciers

One of the great visual wonders of the U.S. natural world, Glacier Park is majestic not just because of its glaciers, but also because of the grand scale of its mountains. Still, if the glaciers were gone, it would not be the same. While Glacier is getting more precipitation due to climate change, its glaciers continue to shrink rapidly. The latest forecast have them mostly gone as soon as 2020, so get busy on this one.

Great Barrier Reef

Australia Great Barrier Reef Islands

When we visited the Reef a few years ago and went diving, I was actually most impressed not by the color and or the sea life variety. I was most impressed by how much of the reef that we saw was not colorful at all, but a dusty brown, as it died. Very sensitive to changes in both ocean temperature and acidity as well as other disturbances, the Reef is well known to be threatened. So get there while you can, and join efforts to save the Reef as well. You are warned that you may have 30-50 years to make this visit.

Snows of Kilimanjaro

Climbing Kilimanjaro has long been on the bucket list of things to do for many people, me included, though I’ve not gotten to this one. I’d like to do it before the famous “snows of Kilimanjaro” disappear, and so it looks like I have until 2022.

Here are two similar lists..
From MSNBC
From News.com.au

And a more extensive list…
From 100 Places to Remember Before They Disappear

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist author, speaker, consultant, and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech, workshop or consultationcontact Futurist.com.

Future of Arctic Ice – 2011 Nearly Matched All-time Low

Glen Hiemstra — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 19:25:59 +0000

Arctic Ice at end of Summer Melt 2007-2011

For some years now I’ve been sure to follow the summer-time story of ice in the Arctic Ocean, as tracked by the Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado. I began doing this after meeting a cold-weather engineer from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, who alerted me both to the special dynamics of the Arctic, and to this Center as a reliable source of data. Because the global temperatures seem to be increasing in the Arctic at about twice the rate of the rest of the planet, the impact on the summer melting of the “permanent” ice cap can be dramatic. Detailed observations begin only in 1979, so the record is short, but in that time a significant increase in the summer melt has been observed, both in terms of the total area of ice, and its thickness. The composite satellite photos you may have seen measure only the area covered. Wind and short term weather patterns can impact the amount of ice observed – winds can push the ice in and out of the Arctic. If you study the data at the Center you will see that in general a pretty dramatic fall-off in the amount of ice at the end of each summer- mid-September – has been the pattern. 2007 was the summer with the least ice, and 2011 came in at second place. Looking at the satellite photos and the amount of clear water that enables ship navigation each summer now also illustrates why the nations that surround the Arctic are jockeying for position to open the Arctic to energy exploration. That tapping the fossil fuels that may be found there and lighting them on fire may only hasten the demise of the ice cap seems of secondary concern to those involved.

Arctic Ice at end of Summer Melt 1979-2007

Is the Arctic a canary in the coal mine in terms of global impacts of climate change? I think so. I am surprised that it does not generate more attention.

When the subject of climate change comes up, I point everyone to visit this center online for themselves. The data and the photos are there for any one to see.

Yes, I know, if you compare 2007 to 2011 it will look like the ice is increasing! Trust me, it is not. Just visit NSIDC for the evidence.

Affordable Energy Efficient Housing for Seniors – A Future Trend

Glen Hiemstra — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:57:50 +0000

Few issues shaping the future stand out in the U.S. more than the future of housing. We tend to think just of the mortgage meltdown of the past three years when considering housing. No real solutions have appeared yet to really address this problem. But there are three additional forces, beyond the mortgage mess, that have also converged to change the way we need to think about housing going forward – the aging population, the need for affordable and “right-sized” housing for the demographics and values of the future, and the need for energy and thus economic efficiency.

This week I learned about an encouraging effort to leverage the mortgage mess and to address these three issues, in a bell-weather development on the outskirts of Houston. It is Cypresswood Estates.

I had the opportunity to discuss the project with Horace Allison, Chief Development Officer for the Harris County Housing Authority. This is a governmental non-profit corporation that promotes, and develops, quality affordable housing.

The mortgage meltdown has resulted in many foreclosed properties. Mr. Allison and the Authority set out to re-develop one such tract, while also addressing the three dominant trends mentioned – aging, affordability, and economic energy efficiency. I have to say I have not seen a more impressive effort in the nation.

They were able to tap a combination of Neighborhood Stabilization Program funds along with contributions from the State of Texas and the County to build their project. This multifamily development has been named by the National Association of Home Builders as a finalist for the “Multifamily Pillars of the Industry Award” and in my view they certainly should be in the running. You can check out Cypresswood online, but here are some of the basics that I learned from Mr. Allison.

First, the project is aimed at active adults in the +55 age bracket. Second, while some of the 88 units are market rate, most require low-income qualification. Rents range from as little as $560 in the subsidized units to as much as $1200 in market rate units. They are small, starting at 850 square feet and going to up 1050 sf. It really looks perfect for addressing what will become a huge issue in the coming two decades – providing some 70 million aging adults with housing alternatives that are smaller, and cheaper, than the large homes that people will want to, or need to, move out of.

What stands out even more is the way that this project addresses the need for economic, sustainable, and energy efficient housing. The project is the nation’s first affordable housing project that exceeds the criteria for Platinum LEED and Emerald Green certification, the highest possible.

Super levels of insulation combined with a unique way of enclosing ductwork and sealing the exterior of the buildings begins the process of saving on both air conditioning (this is Houston!) and heating costs. Insulation is so good that many units seem able to keep cool with just the ceiling fans, barely needing to run their AC. Energy star appliances in every unit are the next step, along with the use of high end, sustainable materials. Solar panels on the roofs of several of the units provide 30% of the energy needed in this all-electric development, and enables some of the units to be “Net 0” in energy usage. Water is efficiently conserved through low-flow fixtures, rainwater reclamation, and drought-tolerant landscaping.

Since the location is not walkable for shopping, the development offers walking trails for recreation, and takes on sustainable transportation needs in three ways. First, a set of shared bicycles are available for use. Second, several high-grade automobile charging stations are built in for plug-in cars. And third the project maintains an on-site vehicle available to take residents to local stores and appointments. This attention to sustainable transportation was, for me, a significant factor in judging this development as a bell weather.

When I asked Mr. Allison about their plans for the future (this project is 50% leased and will be full by year end), he said they are eyeing four more possible projects, and that they hoped to apply several lessons learned. For example, the Authority will not do any future projects that are not at LEED standards. The cost for this project was only marginally higher, about 8-10% more per square foot, than comparable projects that do not meet the same standards. The payback on the extra investment is estimated to be as short as 5-10 years, while the sustainable benefits will last for decades. Other lessons…

There were reservations about the cost and feasibility of adding solar energy, but they found solar more available, affordable, and easier to install and to maintain than anticipated. Several companies competed for the contract.
In future projects the hope is to get into more passive cooling designs, such as ground geothermal.
The hope is to do a full-on Net 0 project, as compared to a couple of Net 0 buildings in this project.
The Housing Authority expects that Net 0 will become a standard for HUD, and eventually for other agencies (such as the U.S. Army, as I learned this year when I did projects for the Corps of Engineers).

Gorgeous looking place. Talk about being on-trend with future needs! Check it out.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, author, consultant, blogger, internet video producer and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Future of transportation – driverless pods at Heathrow

Glen Hiemstra — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 23:22:49 +0000

Personal Rapid Transit systems have been on the drawing boards for ages. Call up a small, personal, driverless, autonomous vehicle, program your destination, get in and off you go. Prototypes have been built but such systems have generally not gotten off the drawing board. Until now at Heathrow airport in the UK. Yes, the destinations are limited but watch how cool this is, and note how many buses and the level of emissions avoided. Nice to see a country taking the lead in infrastructure.

Hat tip to Gerd Leonhard for flagging this on Facebook.

Have a great weekend !

Climate and 24 Hours of Reality

Glen Hiemstra — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 20:33:49 +0000

I missed the 24 Hours of Reality programming from the Climate Project yesterday. They went round the world to 24 locations, with a show in each location describing local climate issues, and “what you can do.” If you are interested visit their website where you can view a video on each of the 24 cities or global areas, and see what the locals hope will be effective local actions.

Can Economic Growth Last and other Math

Glen Hiemstra — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 23:44:06 +0000

Yesterday I discovered a really terrific website, a blog called Do the Math, by UCSD professor Tom Murphy. He is a physicist and mathematician, who began wondering if commonly held assumptions mostly about the future could be true when subjected to math. For example, in this blog and a related one he wrote earlier Professor Murphy asks if economic growth forever is possible. It has been true in the U.S. since 1650, and virtually all economic models, political reasoning, and personal hopes assume that we can just keep growing as we have. Tom notes the correlation between economic growth and the 2.9% annual growth in energy consumption in the U.S. for the last 360 years. Economic growth has been connected to energy growth. No mystery there.

Unless we can decouple economic growth from increasing energy consumption the merry-go-round will come to a stop, because energy growth cannot continue. Why? Because anything that grows at a regular annual percentage rate enters the realm of exponential growth, where things double over time. Remember the old calculation for the doubling rate? It is basically 70 divided by the percent growth rate. So, if U.S. energy consumption grows at 2.9%, then our energy use will double in 24 years. In 48 years, about 2060, we’d be using four times as much energy as today. Now factor in world economic growth (remember China) and world growth in energy consumption. In his clever blog Professor Murphy proves that if the doubling rates were to continue like this (he actually lowers the annual growth rate in energy to 2.3% so that each doubling takes 100 years) the earth would be producing, and using, more energy than the sun in 1400 years. Peter summarizes:

Let me restate that important point. No matter what the technology, a sustained 2.3% energy growth rate would require us to produce as much energy as the entire sun within 1400 years. A word of warning: that power plant is going to run a little warm. Thermodynamics require that if we generated sun-comparable power on Earth, the surface of the Earth—being smaller than that of the sun—would have to be hotter than the surface of the sun!

1400 years sounds like a long time, but limits of technology will be reached long before that. You can use less energy by increasing the efficiency of cars, buildings, computers and so on but only until they are 100% efficient and then no more (well, you can’t actually get to 100%). Thus increases in the use of energy become “impossible within conceivable time frames” (less than a couple of hundred years). Implication: because economic growth, which everyone wishes for right now, is linked to growth in energy use and that cannot continue, a new economic model that enables prosperity without growth is on the horizon, or had better be.

His blog yesterday, by they way, explored whether it would be mathematically possible to build enough batteries to provide sufficient back-up power to run the U.S. if we were to convert to a solar and wind energy economy. His conclusion is no, not enough raw materials on planet earth, either for lead-acid or for variations on lithium-ion batteries or both.

Check it out.

(Coincidently I will be doing a lunch keynote for the Association for Corporate Growth in Seattle tomorrow, August 4, 2011. What should I tell them?)

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, author, consultant, blogger, internet video producer and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Carbon Nation – the Movie – Now on DVD and Recommended

Glen Hiemstra — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 22:14:37 +0000

Carbon Nation is now available on DVD and on most download and On Demand sites. This important, entertaining and hopeful documentary, produced by Peter Byck, is highly recommended by us here at Futurist.com. Read the press release here. Learn how to order the film here.

I saw Carbon Nation this spring when Boeing sponsored a premier here in Seattle, and we blogged at that time that it would be come the “new must see film on our common future.” In the movie Peter travels throughout the country documenting amazing stories of individuals and companies who are creating the next clean and low-carbon energy future. If you see climate change as a problem, or if you don’t but would like cleaner and cheaper energy anyway, this film tells you how it can be done, and is already being done.

We encourage you to buy the DVD, and what we are really recommending is that companies, educational institutions, and conference events consider a bulk purchase of DVD’s for use as a premium, an educational asset, or strategic planning tool. Carbon Nation would be terrific for any of those uses, and I have already begun talking with one speaking event I am doing about the possibility of a purchase and give-away of the DVD to those in attendance.

By the way, our new Futurist.com Office Manager, Mallory Smith, university graduate this year, just watched the DVD and loved it. If you have a message that speaks to both the sustainability and next jet fuel managers at Boeing, as well as the most recent college grads, chances are you have message that is worth watching.

To order the DVD or to inquire about a bulk purchase we suggest you contact Carbon Nation directly at www.carbonnationmovie.com. You can always contact us at info@futurist.com for information.

One more important announcement: We are pleased to announce that Peter will become a featured associate at Futurist.com, and is available for public speaking events where he can show the film and talk about it, or in a shorter format provide a presentation sprinkled with excerpts from the movie. Peter has over 20 years experience as a director and editor. His first documentary “Garbage” won the South by Southwest Film Festival, screened in scores of festivals and played at the Museum of Modern Art and Lincoln Center. In addition, he has edited documentaries for Peter Jackson’s “Lord of the Rings” and “King Kong.” As an associate, he will be available for speaking engagements and we will also be looking for ways to develop collaborative projects. There will be more news to come on that in our next newsletter. Contact us at info@futurist.com about arranging a speech by Peter.

The Movie Trailer

The Impending Dominance of the Electric Car

Catherine Otten — Wed, 11 May 2011 16:32:18 +0000

On May 4th I had the pleasure of attending a Washington Clean Technology Alliance (WCTA) Lunch Seminar to hear James Billmaier, author of JOLT! The Impending Dominance of the Electric Car and Why America Must Take Charge.

After listening to Jim speak, I was fully convinced that America will soon become an “electriconomy” as he puts it. The way he explained it, it will be similar to the evolution of the internet, which existed for a fair amount of time before it became easily accessible to the general public through the introduction of the internet browser. Soon electric cars will be mass produced, charging stations will be easily found, and battery life will last longer to make it not only feasible, but desirable to own an electric car as your primary vehicle.

Jim had a number of enlightening facts about the current gas economy as well. As much as we complain about gas prices, they are currently paying $9/gal in France and the U.S. is not even in the top 100 for gas prices around the world. As gas imports increase, jobs will be lost to overseas production. Some would argue that there is gas to be found within our nation, which is true, but not nearly enough to meet our current needs. A much brighter picture will be painted as energy production becomes a higher priority. There are many ways to keep this production within our borders and increase the number of jobs here with it. Currently the government is still subsidizing gas and defending the pipelines in the Middle East, but even on this uneven playing field the current electric technology is highly superior.

Some people are unnecessarily worried about our current electric grid being overwhelmed by the increasing amount of cars that will need to be charged. Jim put this in perspective for us and explained that electric companies currently produce enough energy to meet the highest demands during the day, but the demand lowers so dramatically at night that even with a conservative estimate, 100 million cars can be charged at night on the unused energy that is currently available. And the future of energy production will only increase that amount. Charging an electric vehicle is equivalent to hooking up a new fridge, NOT a new house. Even air conditioning units take up to 75% more watts than are used to charge an electric vehicle for a 40 mile commute, and AC is more of a luxury than a necessity in many places.

Gas continues to sound more and more wasteful as it is compared to energy use and dollars spent on electric cars. It takes 6-7 kilowatt hours to make 1 gallon of gas. Even one of the newest electric cars, the Nissan Leaf, goes 30 miles on less than 6 kilowatts! In 2010, on a good day, $1 could buy you enough gas to get about 8 miles in a standard car, but in an electric car that same $1 could take you 50 miles! For those interested in sustainability, the Nissan Leaf is made from 90% recycled material and is fully 95% recyclable. And the lithium that batteries are made from is also endlessly recyclable.

Jim currently has two fairly new cars that he told us about, one that runs on gas, and one Nissan Leaf that he could not bring himself to wait to buy. It sounded like he bought it based on ideals, but he drives it because it is such a comfortable and efficient ride. He said that 95% of his miles are driven in his electric car and the other one is kept around now for longer trips or weekend holidays. I had expected to be convinced by the end of his speech that I should read his book, but instead I am convinced that my next car will be electric. If you ever have the chance to hear James Billmaier speak, you should take it. Until then, I would highly recommend his book because if it is half as informative and entertaining as he is in person, it will be one of the best of the year.

He has an even better conclusion on his Jolt! website:

There is no longer any question of whether or not we will adopt an electric-based transportation system. We will. And the transition will come much more quickly than most “experts” predict. All major auto-makers have some type of plug-in vehicle coming out in the very near future, with the first cars due out at the end of 2010. The U.S. can’t afford to be left behind. But we’re going to need to move fast to become the undisputed market leader.

The good news is that we’re halfway there, at least in terms of ability. The U.S. has a well-established history of economic leadership and is renowned for its innovation. It also has a resourceful and skilled workforce able to capitalize on every aspect of the coming electriconomy, from conception and development to manufacture and delivery. In short, the U.S. workforce is a veritable Dream Team.

And the electric vehicle is a Dream Car. EVs are good for us individually. They’re good for us as a nation. And they’re good for the planet.

Hang on, America! The EV is going to take us on an amazing ride.

- James Billmaier

The Truth About Climate Change

Catherine Otten — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 17:00:12 +0000

In a perfect world, people would rely on facts to uncover the truth. I don’t want climate change to be real, but I’m not going to ignore all of the statistics that tell me that it is. However, the problem that many people face is how to change not only their beliefs, but their entire life just by accepting these facts. As Upton Sinclair pointed out nearly a century ago, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

In his New York Times opinion article, The Truth, Still Inconvenient, Krugman writes about five “expert witnesses” Republicans called for last week’s Congressional hearing on climate science.

But what we had, instead of high seriousness, was a farce: a supposedly crucial hearing stacked with people who had no business being there and instant ostracism for a climate skeptic who was actually willing to change his mind in the face of evidence.

Krugman goes on to say “it’s terrifying to realize that this kind of cynical careerism — for that’s what it is — has probably ensured that we won’t do anything about climate change until catastrophe is already upon us.” I prefer to look at the bright side and point out that one scientist with strong climate-skeptic credentials not only changed his views based on his own research, but had the courage to present it to a Congressional hearing that was eager to hear something else.