Machu Picchu Christmas Day 2011

We here at Futurist.com continue to work on getting the new site ready to launch. Given that we have years of content and it turns out a rather quirky legacy in terms of some back-room functionality issues, what we thought would be quick and easy has turned out to be a bit harder. We are still hoping to introduce the new look by mid-month, so please stay tuned. We will blog here a bit in the mean time.

Many things are on my mind for 2012 in terms of future issues. Strategic issues include…

How the rich-poor gap issue in the U.S. and the world will play out this year. Interestingly the Greek historian and biographer Plutarch, who lived from 46-120 AD once made this observation, “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics.” Unfortunately, so far the dynamic seems to be mostly that the severely wealthy interpret the current political climate as an attack on them, rather than as a call to re-ignite a system that builds the middle class and lifts up the poor.

Energy and politics. Last year I forecast that 2011 would be a year in which it would become clear whether we’ve hit peak oil, or not. If it did become clear, the evidence is that we have not hit peak oil. Yet, one must wonder whether all the industry hype about shale plays in gas and oil really mean that a new era of abundance is here, or whether this will turn out to be more hype than reality. A whole lot of public policy and global economic implications are at stake.

Climate change and global warming. Strangely 2011 was the year that this topic became virtually forbidden in the U.S. Politicians are not allowed to mention it, unless it is to say either they do not believe in climate change, or that the science is still too uncertain to do anything about it. My friend Dennis Walsh, a sustainability futurist from Canada, surprised me the other day by agreeing – saying its past time to talk about climate change, as there is no prospect of a sufficient public response anyway. Instead, he suggested, going forward it will be better to concentrate on raising the issue of planning for weather anomalies and local catastrophes. This is interesting. You’ll be hearing more from Dennis when we launch DoTheFuture.com, which has also been delayed, but will also launch this month.

Technology dominance. There may still be no more important dynamic in the world than the continued spread of communication technology, namely smart phones and wireless nets. It was strange to stand in Machu Picchu and talk to the kids at home via my iPhone – actually had better reception than some places around Seattle Washington.

Finally, at some point I will say a few words about the Mayan calendar and the impending end scheduled for 21 December this year!

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist, author, speaker, consultant, and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech, workshop or consultation contact Futurist.com.

The most recent edition of The Futurist magazine included The Best Predictions of 2011. Here are some that seem stranger to us than the others.

1. Thought Helmets. According to Gerwin Schalk, an Albany Medical College scientist, by the year 2020 we will have thought helmets. Though these helmets will probably not be for commercial use right away, Schalk is sure that at least “Soldiers will communicate with telepathic helmets.” It will be very interesting to see how these actually work. Once the technology is even more advanced will it be embedded into our brains so everyone can communicate without speaking?

2. Sleep learning. Great news! By 2030 you will apparently be able to study in your sleep! But, only at select locations. “Hotels will offer customers a selection of dreams as well as the opportunity to study and learn while they sleep.” It would be interesting to ask the Futurist who predicted this a few questions, such as: Will you be able to study any topic? Who will decide which topics (committing the perfect crime, kidnapping for dummies) are off limits to study?

3. No more days off. Bad news for students who love snow days. In the future “Schools won’t have days off for inclement weather anymore”. The idea is that all students will have access to internet and be able to attend class online. Is it plausible that all students will have web access and own a web-enabled device? Perhaps. But then again every young student who wants to take a day off to play in the snow will find a way to get around the rules by using any number of excuses that the school can’t necessarily check up on. How are you supposed to track every student who says it snowed so hard that their electricity went out?

4. Empty Oceans. By 2050 “Ocean-dwelling plant and animal species will disappear on a scale equal to the five great global extinctions of the past 600 million years,” according to the International Programme on the State of the Ocean. This pessimistic prediction assumes that people will stop taking action to mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions and continue to destroy the ocean. There is no doubt that the world needs to pay attention to creating a more sustainable planet, but predicting such a widespread extinction happening in the next 39 years is pushing the boundaries of plausibility. Needless to say, it wouldn’t hurt to start preserving what we have before it’s too late.

5. Holograms for everyone! By 2022 “Home entertainment centers could be playing movies and television shows as 3-D holographs, no television screen involved.” The components of 3-D Holographic technology have been around for a long time and have recently made some great improvements, but to get holographic products that are commercially usable in the next 11 years is going to be quite the challenge. Why? The issue is with finding more sensitive film. Film has been around since before 1890. Less than 35 years later, in 1922, we had the earliest confirmed 3-D film shown to an audience. Holography was invented 25 years later in 1947. Our technology is vastly more advanced now than in the early 1900s, yet it only took a span of 60 years to invent film, make it 3D and turn objects into holographic images. Now, more than 60 years later we have even better technology and 3-D holographic shows and movies are still just beyond our grasp (commercially). Judging by the numbers, we are long overdue for this prediction to come true.

Engineering:
Versabar VB10000
This rig remover can unearth an entire oil rig from under water in a few short hours and for a quarter of the price. The Versabar VB10000 is extremely necessary, as the U.S. has identified 1,800 rigs that have to be excavated within 10 years.

Green Tech:
Bio Soil Enhancers Forage Boost
These bio soil enhancers raise productivity and lower watering needs. Grass yields increase by 20% over standard fertilizer. Learn more about the inventors at AuroraAgra, LLC.

Wysips
The world’s first transparent photovoltaic film. Wysips turn almost anything into a power source. This film has thin strips filled with solar cells alternating with transparent areas, so it appears transparent has thousands of potential applications.

Health:
Diagnostics for All
All it takes is a drop of blood on a stamp-size paper chip and in 15 minutes a color will appear that indicates liver health. Diagnostics for All’s “chip lab” costs less than a penny to make and allows patients to pay about a nickel for treatment.

Avita/ReCell Spray-on-Skin
ReCell Spray-On-Skin grows cells quickly and applies new skin to a bad burn, helping it heal more quickly.

Aviation and Space:
Messenger
NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab’s Messenger probe was the first spacecraft to enter Mercury’s orbit. The probe sent back the first close-up photos taken of Mercury since 1975.

Security:
Recon Scout XT
This bot is tough enough to be thrown into any environment, even through a window, beaming back to its handler live video footage.

Gadgets:
Eye-Fi Direct Mode
Eye-Fi SD cards do not need Wi-Fi to share photos and video from a camera on the Web. All you need is a location with cell service and you can download, upload and share through e-mail any photos you want.

Home Entertainment:
Samsung SUR40 for Microsoft Surface
This 40-inch thin tabletop computer sees and responds to whatever gets placed on it.

In preparing for this event I was interested to learn that the disabled have suffered during the economic recession of the past three years, in cutbacks to social programs that serve them, and even more so in terms of employment. While the national unemployment rates hovers at 8.6%, among the disabled the rate is more than twice that high. We considered the need to address this issue and we explored advances in technology that enable the disabled to be both more employable and independent. This includes access to social media. Because of social media younger disabled people (under age 30) are much more likely to be integrated with and interact with non-disabled peers, as compared to those over the age of 30. So this is another area that social media and the power of the Web are combining to change social structures.

One of the attendees, the Borshoff Agency, captured the spirit of the event in their blog. They noted in particular the use of multiple methods of communication, including the typing of closed captions by a stenographer live as I delivered my keynote. This is something we intend to explore further here at Futurist.com, for example the adding of close captions to our videos.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist, author, speaker, consultant, and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech, workshop or consultation contact Futurist.com.

Yesterday there appeared in the Financial Times a special article by Hassan Haikel, CEO of EFG Hermes, entitled “A tweet from Tahrir Square…” It really struck me as a proposal that, were it to come to pass in the near future, would cause the whole world to join in thanksgiving.

Mr. Haikel reveals that he is one of the 1%, really more like the .0001%, individuals in the world with net worth of more than $10 million, of which there are 1 per 10,000 in the global population. Concerned both with the plague of global debt, and the prospect for major social unrest and economic disaster if the debt problem is not fixed wisely, Mr. Haikel makes a startling proposal. He calls it the “Tahrir Square Tax.” He explains it as a one-time 10% tax levy on all those in the .0001% wealth bracket, whose total net worth is about $50 trillion, thus raising $5 trillion.

Were the proceeds then applied to public debt in Europe, the U.S., and Africa for example, public debt to GDP ratios could be cut to 50% in Europe and 80% in the U.S, while enabling significant infrastructure investment in Africa. The global economy would be off the hook, and in a good position to rebound.

Too simple, too elegant, too preposterous to be imagined, much less implemented. Or is it? The world would be grateful and with a restored economy I suspect the .0001% would rebuild their wealth in time to give thanks for their bounty by the time the next Thanksgiving rolled around.

Read the whole rather amazing article, free registration required.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

We’re all born wanting the freedom to imagine a better and more beautiful future. But modern America has become a place so drearily confining and predictable that it chokes the life out of that built-in desire. Everything from our pop culture to our economy to our politics feels oppressive and unresponsive. We see 10 million commercials a day, and every day is the same life-killing chase for money, money and more money; the only thing that changes from minute to minute is that every tick of the clock brings with it another space-age vendor dreaming up some new way to try to sell you something or reach into your pocket.

Read the whole article.

To me, freedom has always meant being able to participate in the creation of your own future. When the system in which you live seems to prevent that, eventually people rebel. That is the story of history to a large degree. I am sure that many people are surprised to find that so many in the U.S. are feeling less able to participate in their own future in a positive way, even though the evidence has been growing for some thirty years. Thus we are in this early stage rebellion. I don’t know how far it will go. We do know that an astonishing shift in the national conversation about economy, employment, debt and deficits, greed, shared responsibility and opportunity has already occurred in just two short months. And I think we can see that 2012 is going to be one hot year. Stand by.

Glen Hiemstra is Founder of Futurist.com. To reach Glen contact Futurist.com.

Even more powerful visualizations become possible when you add video effects, such as in the video below on world population, from NPR. (Side note: it is also interesting to click through to YouTube on this video and scan the comments – a rather amazing discussion on whether population is a problem or a solution (its a problem if you assume every person is entitled to a reasonable standard of living), and whether fast population growth somehow disproves evolution (I would say, probably not).

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist author, speaker, consultant, and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech, workshop or consultationcontact Futurist.com.

Timberline Lodge on Mt. Hood (West Wing)

Timberline Lodge Mt. Hood (East Wing)

This is the kind of thing that government built the last time we had such a deep economic problem and employment needed a boost.

Are we building anything for the future, today, to help get out of the jobs crisis? Just wondering.

Here are some alternate ideas to austerity as the path to prosperity, offered to the UK Government.

Perhaps there are better alternatives to what we are doing?

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, author, consultant, blogger, internet video producer and Founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Since 2006, the situation has gotten worse, of course, with the collapse of 2008, and the long non-recovery recovery that has followed. But now the issue has leaped from speeches about future trends to the front pages.

For over three weeks Occupy Wall Street protestors have been rallying against a number of grievances focused on a jobless economy and the Wall Street, regulatory, corporate and other policies that they see as combining systemically to prevent improvement. The website for Occupy Wall Street claims that,

The one thing we all have in common is that We Are The 99% that will no longer tolerate the greed and corruption of the 1%. We are using the revolutionary Arab Spring tactic to achieve our ends and encourage the use of nonviolence to maximize the safety of all participants.

Street demonstrations are a quintessential American tradition and right, and thus the demonstrators are carrying on in the footsteps of many who have come before them. What makes Occupy Wall Street unique is the intent to carry on an occupation as a tactic. Momentum for Occupy Wall Street has gathered speed in the last several days with the inclusion of local labor unions in the protests, and the spread to cities in almost every state in the Union. While many mainstream media and financial commentators have expressed opinions that range from confusion to disgust, others are beginning to catch on that something is happening here. Even President Obama has said Occupy Wall Street protests are a reflection of a ‘broad-based frustration about how our financial system works’, though I am not sure he grasps how much of the frustration is with his own ineffectiveness in dealing with that financial system (along with the rest of Washington DC).

Many of the Millennial Generation are involved in this protest, lending credence to the generational theory forecast that the Millennial Generation would be an activist generation. Amongst the thousands of protestors, hundreds have been arrested or aggressively handled in some way by the police, which is evident in the following video.

First, when in recent months I have mentioned the “rich poor gap” to business audiences, I have noticed that while some are glad to hear this reality pointed out, others bristle. I will put up a chart like the one below, and explain that I am not making a political statement, rather simply pointing out that the rich poor gap, which had closed between 1946 and 1979, has been widening due to a combination of factors including economic, global, technological, tax and government policy issues, and then I ask whether we really think that a society in which such a gap continues to grow can be a functioning society?

The second observation is that a good deal of my thinking on the likely long-term negative impacts of increasing wealth disparity comes from a quite earth shaking 2007 book by Robert H. Frank, entitled Falling Behind: How Rising Inequality Harms the Middle Class. When societies become more and more unequal, they become less healthy, less happy, less productive, less capable of producing innovation, more volatile, more prone to crime, and so on. Frank concludes his fascinating analysis of the drivers and the impacts of inequality with these two very prescient paragraphs,

Income and wealth inequality have been rising sharply in the United States for several decades, exacting a heavy toll on middle-income families. When market forces cause inequality to grow, public policy in most countries pushes in the opposite direction. That was also once the pattern in the United States. But more recently, we have responded by cutting taxes for the wealthy and reducing services for the needy. Historians will someday struggle to explain this puzzling reversal.

As the economist Herb Stein once famously remarked, if something can’t go on forever, it won’t. At some point, we will take steps to limit the damage caused by rising disparities in income and wealth. With a push from intelligent political leaders, such steps can be taken sooner rather than later. For even in an age of thirty-second sound bites, American voters have demonstrated their ability to see things from a different angle.

I have little doubt that the elections of 2008 and 2010, although the winning political parties differed, were both mostly a cry for addressing the decades-long economic patterns leading to the decline of the middle class, as described by Frank among others. The OWS demonstrations are likely to continue at least into the cold of winter, and then re-emerge even more full-throated in the spring. The choice they have made to call themselves “the 99%” is brilliant marketing, and the 99% will shape the 2012 elections. I concluded the section on wealth disparity in my book Turning the Future into Revenue this way,

The bottom line is simple. We can sugercoat economic statistics, point to skyrocketing housing values [in 2006], crow about GDP growth figures that mean little to average wage earners, and the reality is that the wealth divide is growing at the present time, and in the long run is deeply problematic.