January 31st, 2011 | By Contributing Writer | Posted in Current Choices for a Better Future | 1 Comment

Focusing on our Future: Where We’re Going

This is a guest blog by Jean Brittingham.

FuturamaFocusing on the negative doesn’t work. It crushes creativity, quells innovation and makes it very difficult to find hope. It makes us feel as if we have less control over our situation. It builds fear.

And fear breeds denial and resistance to the message as explained in this recent Big Think blog about the studies related to climate change and the increase in disbelief about the serious nature of the challenge.

And yet, we can’t seem to help ourselves. Those of us who spend a lot of time with science and scientists, looking at the data and spending nights worrying about how limited our ability to respond would be if the worst of what we fear actually happens, feel compelled to bring others along on our very dark ride. It reminds me of a line from a haunting Randy Newman song “I Just Want You To Hurt Like I Do.”

But let’s be honest. If the best that we can do is spread the fear, we are not any better at responding than those who decide they are just not going to believe in climate change, climate science, climate scientists or us—the fear bringers. In fact anything that would suggest they can’t just focus on their lives and do the best they can every day to make things better for themselves and their families is invisible to them.

And that’s where I believe the answer lies–our better future. Better for you and for your family. And ultimately, better for the planet, the rest of our species, and the others we share the planet with.

But that’s not the starting point. It’s the ending place.

The starting point is focusing on the future you really want. That’s why I am so excited about a new project lead by my friend and colleague Bill Becker. The Future We Want aims to engage the public in envisioning how the future will work, how we will live, get around, work and play. It is based on the idea that some of the greatest shifts in the world have happened after large-scale exhibits, world fairs and expos, that were future-focused, hopeful and exciting. The trick is that many people need to get excited and see the opportunity at the same time. That part is critical.

So how about we not just change the way we are communicating, but we change the way we are thinking. Let’s focus on the future and how to get there. Let’s focus on finding and then creating the future we want together.

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January 28th, 2011 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Current Choices for a Better Future, Society & Culture | 1 Comment

Egypt, Tunisia, and the Future

It is too soon to assess with any accuracy what will be the long-term outcomes of the recent revolution in Tunisia, and the demonstrations growing in intensity right now in Egypt. The implications for the greater Arab world and the Middle East, and the rest of world are unknowable right now.

But I think we can make some observations about likely drivers of these events, and possibly of similar events to come.

I see two drivers of change. There are more drivers I am sure, but these two alone suggest that change may become the norm in the next few years, in nations similar to Tunisia and Egypt.

The first driver is demographic, namely the new population bomb in the form of masses of young people in the developing world. Many have seen this coming and for a long time, none better than Jack Goldstone in the January-February 2010 issue of Foreign Affairs. In a section of his article entitled “Youth and Islam in the Developing World” Jack notes that 70% of the world’s population growth between now and 2050 will take place in 24 nations labeled by the World Bank as low income or lower-middle income. The per capita average income was $3855 in 2008. These countries generally have little prospect of providing well-paid employment, or jobs of any kind, to their young people. He cites, in the Muslim world, Egypt, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey as especially challenged.

We see in the stories from Tunisia and from Egypt, in fact, that the forces at play who are demanding changes from or in government are spearheaded by young people, frustrated by the lack of prospects for the future. Goldstone concludes,

Strategists worldwide must consider that the world’s young are becoming concentrated in those countries least prepared to educate and employ them, including some Muslim states. Any resulting poverty, social tension, or ideological radicalization could have disruptive effects in many corners of the world.

The second driver was captured in a single phrase when my long-ago futurist mentor, Ed Lindaman, defined freedom as “Being able to participate in the creation of your own future.” In nations with a history of strongman rule, and few prospects for the future in the eyes of their young, unrest may boil until at some point it boils over.

What we do not know is how it will turn out. All too often these initial yearnings for reform and freedom do indeed overturn the current autocratic rule, and a “Prague Spring” ensues, only to be followed by clever and even more autocratic forces leveraging the new found freedom into their own totalitarian rule. That is the thing to work against.

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January 25th, 2011 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Business & Economy, Environment & Energy, Science & Technology | Comments Off

Predictive modeling, future weather, and a forecast of Pirates

I loved this story today in the Seattle Times newspaper, about a presentation to a conference of 3500 scientists in the American Meteorological Society, by Jim Hansen. Hansen is an applied mathematician at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California. Mr. Hansen’s weather forecast: A Chance of Pirates.

Taking advantage of advances in computing power and in predictive modeling, Mr. Hansen is creating models of weather, ship traffic, Pirate tendencies, and other variables, as a way to predict where Pirate activity might occur. The weather matters, because today’s Pirates tend to operate in small boats that need relatively calm weather to be effective.

The hope is that by integrating even better data about weather, and satellite data on ship locations including real-time visual tracking, a model might be built that will predict where Pirate activity is most likely. Turns out this is hard, in big oceans. Knowing just the general area where Pirates are working is not sufficient to direct naval responses that prevent attacks.

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January 24th, 2011 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Business & Economy, Current Choices for a Better Future, Environment & Energy | 2 Comments

Transportation: Vision 2050

On January 25, 2011 President Barak Obama will deliver the 2011 “State of the Union” address to the U.S. Congress and the nation. The text of the speech has not yet been released, but reports are that among other things the President will call for are national investments to keep the United States competitive in the future global economy. The idea of investments is a very tough sell in the United States these days, as it is in some other parts of the world. Cutting spending and doing nothing but the bare minimum is the more popularly touted public policy.

As one who has worked with transportation policy planners on various projects over the past decade and half, I have become aware of the growing backlog of infrastructure needs in the United States, needs that apply to all transportation modes, from roads and bridges, to air traffic control systems and airports, to rail and port facilities. Much that was built in the heady days when America believed in the future is now in need of repair or modernization, and in addition we would benefit from new investment in infrastructure like high-speed trains.

Such investments require leadership commitment, public support, and a vision of what is preferred. The Futurist.com projects that I mentioned have all been, in one way or another, tied to the development of long-term vision. Recently we came across a report on a project that I had a role in, late in the year 2000, a report issued as the new Bush administration came into power in January-February 2001, ten years ago. This was a project of the US Department of Transportation, entitled Vision 2050: An Integration National Transportation System.

Vision 2050As a report of the outgoing USDOT leadership to the in-coming President of another political party, the recommendations received a predictable reception, which is to say not much of a reception at all. For several years the report was available on various Federal Government websites, but access has gradually disappeared. So, we are making the report avaialable here for everyone. Here’s the PDF. You can also find the report at archives located at MIT and at Whitehouse.gov.

My role in the project was to design and lead one of three national workshops that brought together experts for several days of exploring future trends, possibilities, and recommendations for a long-term vision. In doing that work in the Fall of 2000 I met Mark Safford, then of the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, with whom I later worked on other projects, and who has also been a contributing writer here at Futurist.com.

Returning to that now ten-year old Vision, I am struck by several things. First, the vision was quite bold, and still relevant today.

    Vision 2050:

  • An integrated national transportation system that can economically move anyone and anything, anywhere, anytime, on time;
  • A transportation system without fatalities and injuries; and
  • A transportation system that is not dependent on foreign energy and is compatible with the environment

Second, the report argued that short-term, incremental, and piecemeal fixes to the transportation system, while needed, are not sufficient to build an integrated national transportation system. We really were trying to look at the whole system. This is an important point as we, in 2011, discuss global competitiveness simultaneously with an emphasis on budget cuts. Thinking systemically is more important that ever.

Third, it was in this project that I met a representative of the Rocky Mountain Institute and learned much more about the potential of smarter and lighter vehicles that could be radically safe and fully independent of foreign oil. The report emphasized the possibilities for intelligent transportation systems, virtual communication, electric personal transportation, and integrated modes of transportation.

Finally, going back to the report now I was reminded of a common experience with long-term vision. Even though the report disappeared into the archives under the new administration at the time, the act of putting a vision out there increases the conversation about the ideas, and makes the vision more likely to happen. I remember a city manager who told me once, several years after a community vision effort that I led, that he had merely “put the vision in a drawer.” Every now and then he would take it out, and wonder why they weren’t doing more to implement the vision. Until, one day, he took the vision out, re-read it and thought, “Wait a minute, it has all come true, we’ve accomplished the vision.” It was, he said, an illustration of the “mystical power of long-term vision.” I’ve always liked that. If you look at the three-point vision, above, you can see that we are working toward it, even when we think we are not.

The report was also featured in a small study comparing long term visions.

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January 19th, 2011 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Space | 4 Comments

Space Tourism 2011

(Written with Catherine Otten)

The space experience race is on.

I have always wanted to go into space. It could happen sooner than we think. All I need is the money.

According to the Space Tourism Society, billionaires such as Paul Allen, Jeff Bezos, and Sir Richard Branson are spending hundreds of millions of dollars building space enterprise/tourism companies. Millions of government dollars are supporting these efforts as international competition for space business prestige and profit heats up. The U.S. federal government in particular is pushing the entry of private companies into the space launch business, intending soon to rely on private companies for most space access.

For those of you wanting to be a space tourist, or wanting to work in the business, the Space Tourism Society is hosting Space Tourism 2011 (ST11) on April 28, 2011. This international annual event will bring together leaders in many fields involved in building the space enterprise/tourism industry and creating the orbital lifestyle as well as new participants seeking business, marketing, and investment opportunities and exciting space careers.

Virgin Galactic
There are a number of companies already selling seats on their rocketplanes. You can read more about these on MSNBC and Popular Science.

Our favorites for personal access so far are Virgin Galactic‘s SpaceShipTwo and XCOR’s Lynx. Virgin Galactic is pricey, charging $200,000 per passenger, but they already have $30 billion in pre-bookings from over 200 people. SpaceShipTwo plans to take you on a 2.5 hour trip with 6 minutes of complete weightlessness. They are currently running tests and plan to start taking ticketed passengers in 2012 .

XCOR
XCOR‘s Lynx rocketplane is planning commercial rides starting this year for only $95,000. It reaches 60 miles in 30 minutes and travelers achieve weightlessness during the 4 minute apogee. The Lynx has only 2 seats, so you get to sit shotgun next to the pilot every time. XCOR has established a commercial relationship with an entity named Space Experience Curacao (SXC). In November 2010 SXC linked up with KLM Royal Dutch Airlines. KLM plans to offer vacation packages to Curacao (in the “Netherlands Antilles” in the Caribbean) and from there into space aboard an XCOR Lynx spaceship.

Both of the XCOR and Virgin Galactic rocketplanes currently launch from Mojave Spaceport in California, but Virgin will move eventually to their Spaceport America now being built in New Mexico and they also have plans for Sweden.

“Eventually there will be a price war,” according to Doug Graham, former spokesman for XCOR. “The market is going to decide if floating around demands a premium over a front row seat.” He may be comparing the XCOR seat next to the pilot to primary competitor Virgin Galactic, where passengers will sit in the cabin, but the same comment could easily be directed at the more complex and costly space tourism goal of placing people in orbit.

Space Adventures, based in Virginia, is the one company offering the true astronaut experience complete with training. Space Adventures flies private-pay passengers on Russian Soyuz spacecraft to the International Space Station, and for the trip they charge over $20 million. If you ask us, $20 million is steep, though you do get an extended stay in orbit.

However, if space hotel dreamers like Bigelow Aerospace succeed with their inflatable space station-like modules, cheaper accomodations in space may become available. Bigelow is currently testing its inflatable module Genesis II in orbit while the more advanced module called Sundancer is scheduled for launch and testing in 2014. NASA too is looking into adding a Bigelow module to the International Space Station.

Meanwhile, perhaps the most successful commercial space company to date, SpaceX, run by Elon Musk, became the first company to send a privately developed craft into orbit and retrieve the craft upon re-entry. Now they set their sites on the long-term goal of launching human crews into space. As SpaceX announced in a press release on January 17, 2011:

The Dragon spacecraft is scheduled to fly at least 11 more times and the Falcon 9 launch vehicle is scheduled to fly 17 times before the first Dragon crew flight. Given the extensive manifest of Falcon 9 and Dragon, the SpaceX system will mature before most other systems will be developed.

The inaugural flight of the Dragon spacecraft confirmed what we have always believed—the responsiveness and ingenuity of the private sector, combined with the guidance, support and insight of the US government, can deliver an American spaceflight program that is achievable, sustainable and affordable. The SpaceX team is excited about the new opportunities and challenges the New Year will bring.

To sum up, wider access to space, including for you and me if we have the money, is coming. Companies like Virgin Galactic, are already pre-selling seats. It is likely that they, and others, will succeed and through efficiency and competition bring down the prices. A few more years and it might be affordable for everyone.

[This post was updated on January 20, 2011 based on factchecking from XCOR. Please see their comment.]

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