August 1st, 2012 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Business & Economy, Society & Culture | 2 Comments

Drove my Chevy to the levy and pushed it in – the future of cars

Beware the permanent trend.

What would happen if a generation stopped driving cars, or at least stopped dreaming that owning a car and driving everywhere was their defining passage into adulthood? What if each year auto ownership and miles driven declined? It would be the end of a seemingly permanent trend toward ever more miles driven and greater car ownership.

I first began seeing signs of this emerging trend (or better, trend reversal) in 2010, as I was producing a study for the state of Idaho on the 30-year future of transportation and economic development in Idaho. In that study I noted the following, based on a 2010 article in Advertising Age:

The Millennial generation…is not only very large – larger than the Baby Boom generation – but different in an important way. They are first computer and Internet generations, having grown up since infancy with computers, 24/7 network access, cell phones, blue-tooth enabled cars, and so on. They approach most life activities differently, that is, they approach them using the network first.

One critical example for the future is recent research showing, for the first time since the advent of the automobile, a youth generation less likely to own a car, drive a car, or have a drivers license than the previous generation. As reported in Advertising Age,

“In 1978, nearly half of 16-year-olds and three-quarters of 17-year-olds in the U.S. had their driver’s licenses, according to Department of Transportation data. By 2008, the most recent year data was available, only 31% of 16-year-olds and 49% of 17-year-olds had licenses, with the decline accelerating rapidly since 1998. Of course, many states have raised the minimum age for driver’s licenses or tightened restrictions; still, the downward trend holds true for 18- and 19-year-olds as well and those in their 20s.

It’s not just new drivers driving less. The share of automobile miles driven by people aged 21 to 30 in the U.S. fell to 13.7% in 2009 from 18.3% in 2001 and 20.8% in 1995, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration’s National Household Travel Survey released earlier this year.” (Advertising Age, (http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=144155) May 31, 2010)

This dramatic decline in driving behavior by young people occurred in a period when the percentage of the national population aged 21-30 actually increased slightly. The explanation goes well beyond restrictions on driving for 16-18 year olds, into a shift in values and behavior. Interest in cars has waned. They have become more expensive. Interest in digital communications has sky-rocketed. Digital communication has become less expensive. Young people in 2010, and adults in 2030 may find it far easier to text, to do computer-based work, and generally to stay connected while using public transportation rather than when driving a car. Even as legislatures around the nation ramp up bans on digital communication while driving, the desire to conduct work while commuting will continue to increase. All of these factors, combined with technology advances themselves, may make driving behavior in 2030 not at all like behavior prior to 2010.

Now comes more recent evidence supporting this trend. In a piece entitled “Goodbye James Dean,” Phineas Baxandall, senior analyst at the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, observes that Americans drove a billion fewer miles in April 2012 than they did in 2011, despite a somewhat better economy. Moreover, in a reversal of a six-decade trend to ever-increasing miles driven, Americans were already driving 6 percent less in 2011 than they were in 2004. Baxandall noted,

…the decline is particularly strong among young people. Americans between 16 to 34 years of age drove a whopping 23 percent fewer miles in 2009 than in 2001. These same youth increased their bicycle riding by 24 percent and increased their miles on public transit by 40 percent.

In addition to driving fewer miles, young people are leading the way to a declining percentage with driver’s licenses. The decline has been especially dramatic for men ages 20 to 34, falling from nearly 95 percent with a license to under 80 percent with a license, depending on the age cohort.

How much of this due to unemployment making it too difficult to own a car, versus the trend representing a true values shift, we will have to wait and see following a more robust economic recovery. But the love affair with cars may be wearing out as people opt for a less car-dependent life style. So concerned with a possible shift in consumer behavior are Ford and GM that they have both initiated research and marketing efforts aimed even more specifically at Millennials.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist, author, speaker, consultant, Founder of Futurist.com, and founder and Curator of DoTheFuture.com. To arrange for a speech, workshop or consultation contact Futurist.com.

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July 27th, 2012 | By Mallory Smith | Posted in Business & Economy, Science & Technology, Society & Culture | Comments Off

Google Fiber: The Internet, Chapter Two

Google has announced that it will be offering an extremely fast internet service in Kansas City for $70 per month. Google describes Google Fiber rather succinctly on their website, “Google Fiber starts with a connection speed 100 times faster than today’s average broadband. Instant downloads. Crystal clear HD. And endless possibilities. It’s not just TV. And it’s not just Internet. It’s Google Fiber.” By bypassing local phone and cable companies, offering speeds 100 times faster than current broadband companies, AND by including a cable-TV like service that uses a tablet computer as a remote, Google is offering a service that hasn’t ever been offered before.

Although Google Fiber is only being offered in Kansas City, KS and Kansas City, MO neighborhoods, or “fiberhoods”, this might just be the most brilliant part of their marketing strategy. Only in the beginning test phase of releasing this product, Google is already creating a high demand by giving Google Fiber to those who want it most first. And they are connecting communities in the process. If you live in Kansas City and you want Google Fiber in your neighborhood, you can pre-register, or basically apply, to try and get the service in your area. The more people from your community that you rally together to apply for service, the more likely it is that you’ll get it!

This is an interesting approach to making connections online, and it is definitely the beginning of the next wave of the internet. Rather than aimlessly chatting on social media channels, or blogging about random topics, Google is asking you to connect with your community members and commit to taking an action. Together. Learn more  in this video explaining Google Fiber:

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July 20th, 2012 | By Mallory Smith | Posted in Environment & Energy, Society & Culture | Comments Off

Animals Impact our Future

In his current novel, 2312, the writer Kim Stanley Robinson imagines a world 300 years from now in which the Earth has been significantly damaged by environmental and political disaster, so much so that many, many animals have gone extinct. We humans are still here, squabbling away. However, out in the rest of the solar system there now lives a diaspora of humans on the other planets and moons and in hollowed-out asteroids, all terraformed so that humans, and animals, can live there. Among the major projects of 300 years from now is to recreate lost species of Earth animals. Late in the book, humans of the solar system decide its time to do some terraforming on Earth, and so they dispatch tens of thousands of animals back to re-populate the Earth — wolves and reindeer, moose and whales, species after species being returned to see if they can make it now. Is this our future?

We are constantly inundated with information about the impact of humans on our planet’s environment and the future. But what impact will animals have on our future? For example, Americans consume almost 200 pounds of meat per person per year. Animals produce food for humans directly and indirectly, and with an ever increasing global population, we’re going to need more and more food. Can that be done with animals?

Not only do we eat animals, but they are important in other aspects of collecting non-animal food. Some of the smaller animals and insects naturally maintain other crops that we use for food. A frequently discussed example is the observation that bees are disappearing in various regions, probably due to a disease being spread among the bees. Why are bees important? “The bees (Aphis mellifera) are responsible for more than 75% of the World pollination and thanks to them we can provide about 35% of our diet.”

What about the way humans are farming and using animals as technology advances?  The way we raise livestock is polluting the environment, producing a surprising percentage of greenhouse gases. “The Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) served 51 pork production facilities throughout Iowa, North Carolina and Oklahoma with notice of intent to sue…[because] all of the facilities release more than 100 pounds and sometimes up to 10,000 pounds of ammonia into surrounding communities and the environment on a daily basis.”

Human use of animals may harm our environment, but its also affecting our economy. We spend a lot of money testing animals for research. According to PETA, “More than $16 billion in taxpayer money wasted annually on animal testing.” Some research is quite valuable to humans, helping us cure diseases and make other advances in medicine, but “The statistics show that last year, 35% of animal experiments were for fundamental biological research – much of it curiosity-driven, only 13% directly for human medicine or dentistry, and 43% of animal research was the breeding of animals with a Harmful Mutation or Genetic Modification (GM).”

Just looking at your dinner plate (yes, even you, vegans) it is obvious that animals large and small are going to be an important part of our future. We want to preserve the natural relationships of plants, animals, and humans, the entire ecosystem really. We should be trying to preserve the vast diversity of wildlife on the planet because they, too, are a part of the cycle of life on Earth. They need things from us (that Pomeranian won’t make it out in the wild without your help) and we need things from them (information, pollination, food). We should be striving to find a harmonious balance in our relationship with and use of animals so that we can imagine a positive future for people and for animals.

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July 10th, 2012 | By Glen Hiemstra and Mallory Smith | Posted in Environment & Energy, Society & Culture | 1 Comment

Micro Homes: The Competitive Alternative to Housing

Micro homes, or tiny houses, are becoming more appealing as affordable housing options are less and less abundant in cities with overcrowded populations. This increasing density issue will be a topic of conversation in a book I’m co-authoring late this Fall on the future of cities, but until then the focus is on micro homes as a possible answer to this increasing lack of space.

Micro homes often come with all the amenities of larger homes—refrigerator, stove, washer/dryer, dishwasher, and double sink—but they are more affordable and less harsh on the environment. Some are powered off the grid by solar panels and propane, while others are built with sustainable materials.

Building and owning micro homes is easier than you may think, now that some “Cities like Seattle have recently changed their zoning code to allow these detached accessory dwelling units (nicknamed “DADU’s”)”. More cities should be doing as much as they can to allow housing options that have such a low impact on local resources. And for the price, why wouldn’t you consider housing like this? See ten tiny houses from all across the country for examples of homes with building costs ranging from $16,000-$95,000. If you’re super thrifty you can get the building costs down to $3,000, like this Victorian style tiny house.

Even if you have only recently heard about tiny homes, take note that this is not at all a new fad. There’s even a how-to guide from 1995 on building your own micro house, a plan that pegs the building price at approximately $900 plus labor and space.

 

 

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July 3rd, 2012 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Business & Economy, Science & Technology | Comments Off

Future Trends for the 4th

I recently came across a couple of interesting items that indicate likely futures. The first is the old standby, and most frequent question asked of me as a futurist – what ever happened to the flying car. While I still think of the Mollar skycar as the gold standard for what such a vehicle should do – take off and land vertically so you don’t need airports – another company took to the air recently in a test flight. This company, Terrafugia, makes something more like a small plane that you can also drive on the road, but as such it is a personal flying and driving vehicle.

Another bit of future news I saw this week is that more older workers and fewer younger workers are really changing workforce demographics. I’ve been predicting this trend for a long time. The percentage of people over 65 still working is at the highest rate since 1965. Two million more oldsters are in the workforce than are teens. More impressive, the number of workers over 75 has never been higher since such records were kept. This is while the percentage of young people employed is at the lowest level since records began in 1948. Now, some of this dynamic is the short term result of the great recession that has made it harder for young people to get started. But more has to do with the need for older workers to stay employed because of precarious retirement funds. Living longer and healthier plays a small role as well. Whatever the drivers, this bodes for a significant shift in historic demographic dynamics at work.

Tech may fly but work changes continue. Happy 4th of July !

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