September 10th, 2012 | By Mallory Smith | Posted in Environment & Energy, Society & Culture | Comments Off

Beyond Oil 2012 – Commerce month is here at the Next Fifty

Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute founder and author of “Reinventing Fire” is the first to give a presentation at this year’s Beyond Oil Conference, one of the first events to kick off Seattle’s Next Fifty month of commerce.

Lovins opens his presentation, aptly named Reinventing Fire, by asking us a question: “What if we had energy do our work without working our undoing?” According to Lovins, today 90% of America’s energy comes from non-renewable sources. Oil is risky. Prices yo-yo for both user and buyer, and at this point it’s costing the U.S. $6B per day. Add that to the environmental impacts and the fact that petroleum products are a finite resource and we have a problem. What’s the first step to fix the problem? Make automobiles oil-free. Technology makes electrification accessible. Lovins gives an example of an electric car that has only 14 parts, meaning 99% less tooling, 2/3 smaller powertrain, less time spent and eventually, less cost.  In the end, Lovins asserts that first we need to get efficient and then we need to switch fuels, keeping in mind that electricity is key to the new energy era.

After other speakers remind us of electric trolley cars and the Bonneville Power Administration, John Boesel, CEO of CALSTART  gives his presentation, entitled Multi-Fuel & Tech Future=Choice & Optimization.  Boesel’s main objective is to explain and promote the EV Employer Initiative. This initiative encourages companies to offer their employees on-site electric vehicle charging stations. Google has some of their 300 parking spaces  equipped with solar canopies and EV chargers. Not only does this make long commutes possible for electric vehicle drivers, but the charging stations also serve as workplace showrooms, inspiring conversations and informing more people about the benefits of electric vehicles.

Bob Lutz of GM talks about his love of electric vehicles, especially the Chevy Volt, and warns that as long as gas cars are cheaper to buy and run, driving electric will be a hard sell to consumers.  In the end, Lutz affirms that accessible and affordable petroleum in its various forms will be around a long time before the long-term solution ultimately becomes electric cars.

Hosted by Event Chair Steve Marshall, Beyond Oil offers us a diverse array of professionals with interesting perspectives on the roles oil and renewable energies will play in the future. It’s safe to say this conference gives audience members plenty of valuable insight into the numerous possibilities that we face as we think about moving from oil to renewable energies like wind and solar power. I want to know how we can get Lovins’ presentation shown to all U.S. auto manufacturers and policy makers. And how do we provide irresistible incentives for companies to utilize the EV Employer Initiative? If anyone has any suggestions, feel free to share!

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September 9th, 2012 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Cities Book | Comments Off

The city, the future, and you – sustainability leadership

This is Part 3 of Chapter 3 of our book on the future of cities, being written with Dennis Walsh. Our plan is to publish a new book blog nearly every day for the next couple of months. We will publish them both here on futurist.com and on dothefuture.com. Later we will compile the blogs into an e-book.

We are debating the eventual title. We started with two choices: “Downtown” and “Shine…The Rebirth of American Cities.” Which do you like? We hope you will find the subject of interest and follow this book in serial form. A reader has suggested, “City Transformation?” So far, “Downtown” with a subtitle is leading. What do you think?

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CHAPTER THREE – Part 3
by Dennis Walsh and Glen Hiemstra

You and I have a responsibility to change the world. Even as others resist change or wish to go back in time, life is too short to pretend that we can just wait or go back. The question we all face is whether we just sit back on the couch, grab a cold one and say, “Well that’s just the way it is, nothing I can do about it.” Or whether we are willing to do what we can to shape a better future.

Cities are at a crossroads with little choice but to change direction. Our minds deceive us into thinking something is right when it is really wrong. We imagine living a life of leisure, deceiving ourselves into thinking this kind of a life will make us happy. The truth is that idleness is boring and even depressing.

You are an industrious, creative being. You need challenge and accomplishment to make you truly happy. There is nothing wrong with wanting better things, but these do not automatically make us happy. They may create a temporary high that quickly wears off. It’s a bottomless pit that we can never fill.

The good news is that the decline of weakly managed large cities is neither inevitable nor irreversible. Cities can tackle infrastructure gaps. They can improve planning. And more importantly, provide high productivity jobs. Countries like the U.S. and Britain hope that so-called social entrepreneurs can help find answers to those challenges. Young public-private partnerships and social entrepreneurs have a role to play. Cities are broken and in many cases social entrepreneurs are fixing them.

Building better cities in the future is not about more controls, taller fences, or more effective leadership from the top; it is people and their willingness to change – to become sustainable. The new wave of sustainability is strategic and opportunity driven. For business, it is a response to a changing economic landscape (borrowed wealth and externalized social costs are unsustainable) and to world context. It is a backlash against environmental negativity. In reality, it is celebration of inspiration and the power of people to ignite emotion.

To build better cities, we need to work together. Everyone can be powerful influencers setting trends for others to follow. Here is something cool. Celebrities have jumped onto this environmental bandwagon by embracing issues from animal rights through to deforestation and famine. Crowned ‘Queen of Green’ by Vogue magazine, Cameron Diaz is not just a pretty face. She lives sustainably. Her MTV show Trippin’ takes viewers on eco-adventures to endangered habitats around the world.

Leonardo DiCaprio sets a benchmark for people in the public eye. DiCaprio wrote, produced and narrated The 11th Hour, a documentary in 2007. He partnered with Swiss watchmaker TAG Heuer on a limited edition Aquaracer 500M timepiece, with sales benefiting two of his favorite causes. And he maintains a blog on environmental issues and green living.

Daryl Hannah is an organic gardener and strives to “carbon-neutralize” herself living in a house that is off the grid. Hannah is a long time environmentalist who has previously been arrested for green causes.

There is a new breed of fashion designer whose aesthetics match their ethics. For example, Natalia Allen established herself as the design futurist early in her career by setting out to design sustainable fashion from the farmers field to the recycle bin for used clothing. She has become a sought after global leader and consultant to fashion companies. Ethical fashion is growing in status from a trend into a full-fledged movement.

One thing is clear – public spending for large-scale new programs is difficult. Global warming will accelerate as systems operate past their capacity. Without skillful management, cities will become centers of decay, gridlock and pollution. Tuition increases, student protest rallies and staggering cuts to the state budgets are a running narrative. In thirty years, the United States is expected to be a majority minority nation. Social challenges like reducing poverty and improving education will not go away easily. But at least people are trying in a myriad of ways to address these issues. And while the global economy remains a conflicting, confusing mixture of boom and bust economies, it is encouraging to know that some people are out there working together for change.

Where all of this is leading us is uncertain. What this has to do with cities is open for discussion. You might say that uncertainty is the new normal. The old order has been so shaken that it has become impossible to describe exactly what the present or future holds. And yet, more and more people are asking, “Where are we headed? What is the vision of the future?”

One thing is certain: we are all at the beginning of economic and social transformation to a sustainable world. Crises are, after all, tremendous opportunities. Ten years from now, youth will make up the majority of the global population, this despite the age wave going on at the same time. So, the future is all up to you.

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[Glen Hiemstra is the Founder of Futurist.com, and curator of Dothefuture.com. Dennis Walsh is a sustainability futurist from Canada best known for his work as the first publisher of green@work. Contact us through futurist.com]

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September 6th, 2012 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Cities Book | Comments Off

The city, the future, and you – declining infrastructure

This is Part 2 of Chapter 3 of our book on the future of cities, being written with Dennis Walsh. Our plan is to publish a new book blog nearly every day for the next couple of months. We will publish them both here on futurist.com and on dothefuture.com. Later we will compile the blogs into an e-book.

We are debating the eventual title. We started with two choices: “Downtown” and “Shine…The Rebirth of American Cities.” Which do you like? We hope you will find the subject of interest and follow this book in serial form. A reader has suggested, “City Transformation?” So far, “Downtown” with a subtitle is leading. What do you think?

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CHAPTER THREE – Part 2
by Dennis Walsh and Glen Hiemstra

This is a great day to be alive, don’t let it pass you by. The economy may be down, but in tough times, you’ve got to draw a line. What goes on around us should not limit us. The truth is it shouldn’t, but it does.

No mayor in America brags about his city shrinking. No council member wants to hear that her ward no longer exists. It’s like admitting defeat. But the reality is declining cities are less desirable for everyone for many reasons.

Shrinking cities aside, the population of the United States could hit 420 million by 2050. If that happens, there are serious questions about how the infrastructure is going to handle the strain. How bad is the situation? Considering much of that infrastructure is buried and records of the locations of all the underground pipes and cables are often unavailable or incomplete, we know it’s not good.

An inefficient electrical grid causes losses billions each year for U.S. businesses. And what about water? Dams are aging. Some wastewater systems are more than 100 years old. The EPA estimates a million miles of sewer underground across the U.S. Raw sewage spills accidentally from systems designed to carry only sewage, not waste water. Waste gurgles from manholes and rushes down streams and rivers somewhere in the country every day. The U.S. needs to spend some two trillion dollars to rebuild its infrastructure. No one really thinks that is likely to happen in the face of budget deficits.

Our nation’s economy and our quality of life require highways. Next to safety, congestion is a critical challenge facing our highway system. Americans spend over 4 billion hours a year stuck in traffic. The problem is more obvious in urban areas, where decaying transportation systems cost the American economy billions of dollars in lost time and fuel every year. U.S. transit systems are rated poorly by the American Society of Civil Engineers. It seems transit use is increasing faster than any other mode of transportation even as transit funding is on the decline. An estimated 25% of nearly 600,000 bridges in the U.S are rated substandard. Think of what that could mean; closures, even collapse.

In cities themselves poor construction and development practices can make earthquakes more deadly than they need to be. The 2012 earthquake that killed more than 220,000 people in Haiti is a perfect example. Port-au-Prince has nearly three times as many people — many of them living in poverty — and more poorly built shanties than it did 25 years ago. Had the same quake hit in 1985 instead of 2010, the death toll would likely have been far less. In February, an earthquake 500 times stronger than the one that struck Haiti hit an area of Chile that was less populated, better constructed, and not as poor. Chile’s bigger quake caused fewer than 1,000 deaths.

Not all cities are declining. We’ll read about those later. Cities often prosper when they reduce inequalities. They are learning to transform a potentially negative environmental impact to a positive one. These cities are part of the solution, the answer to the demands and challenges of the future.

Groups of people have recognized the urgency for infrastructure investment for sustainability, even as Tea Party activists have been advocating disinvestment. That political movement wants nothing to do with smart growth or sustainability. And above all, nothing to do with the United Nations’ Agenda 21, a two-decade old document addressing sustainable development in the cities around the world. And that raises some interesting questions about civic engagement that may take some soul-searching.

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[Glen Hiemstra is the Founder of Futurist.com, and curator of Dothefuture.com. Dennis Walsh is a sustainability futurist from Canada best known for his work as the first publisher of green@work. Contact us through futurist.com]

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September 5th, 2012 | By Glen Hiemstra | Posted in Cities Book | Comments Off

The city, the future, and you – shrinking cities

This is Part 1 of Chapter 3 of our book on the future of cities, being written with Dennis Walsh. Our plan is to publish a new book blog nearly every day for the next couple of months. We will publish them both here on futurist.com and on dothefuture.com. Later we will compile the blogs into an e-book.

We are debating the eventual title. We started with two choices: “Downtown” and “Shine…The Rebirth of American Cities.” Which do you like? We hope you will find the subject of interest and follow this book in serial form. A reader has suggested, “City Transformation?” So far, “Downtown” with a subtitle is leading. What do you think?

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CHAPTER THREE – Part 1
by Dennis Walsh and Glen Hiemstra

Hard times are not for all time. We missed the signs and got caught in a bad place. But life is too short to waste in the wrong place. The question is, “What are going to do about it?”

Cities are at a crossroads. You know that. We all know that. The question is, do we want to change course?

Yours may be the first generation in decades to face worse economic prospects than your parents and even grandparents. You deserve better. And you know what, we believe that you will make things better by laying the foundation of a new American prosperity and by driving a vibrant green energy economy. You and others like you will reinvent and rebuild our nation’s infrastructure. You will do that by galvanizing the immense potential of the private sector through innovation and creativity. That’s what it is going to take. The need for local innovation is greater than ever before.

The problem is many American cities are in trouble, their economies failing. There are social issues that have not been dealt with. At the same time there are cities that are rebounding, improving. A new attitude, a new awareness is growing, and all over the country.

Skeptical? Consider this: the decline of weakly managed large cities is neither inevitable nor irreversible. But for our cities and towns to function successfully, we must make them great. We must make them sustainable. Sustainability cannot happen at the global scale – that is far too vast to be knowable or controllable. It will take cities capable of addressing the social, economic and political imbalances in the world. At this scale such problems can be resolved. It is time for optimism. We are, after all, more optimistic than realistic by nature. Without optimism, our ancestors wouldn’t have accomplished much.

We are entering a new era, the era of cities. It is difficult to imagine anything more intriguing. Cities are disorganized, yet promising; unruly, yet filled with creative potential. Cities are inspirational, magical places. Centers of artistic and intellectual creativity, seats of political power, focal points of invention and discovery, cities are the engines of economic development. Across the globe, metros with populations over one million account for more than half of the world’s economic output and nine of every ten innovations, while housing roughly one out of every five people.

Did we say cities are shrinking? Every sixth city in the world is contracting. Yet other cities grow. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, there is no limit to how big or fast a city can grow and growth can’t continue without sparking an environmental crisis. Growing cities have to face the fact that cities consume two-thirds of our total energy and produce over 70% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Some people say that urban life is out of balance. Uncontrolled urban development can’t continue.

Thankfully, there is a deeper side to American culture. Under layers of advertising and hyper-consumerism, there’s a move to simplify life, to free up space, budget and time. Some of us are looking for a new, less stressful way of life. Some have decided that owning less “big stuff” like houses and cars makes sense. There are signs that older American cities have been slowing down. And they’re reinventing themselves.

The idea goes against the stream but it appears that if cities can grow in a smart way, they can shrink smartly. A case in point: If you want to see what the future of America might look like, drive through Detroit. Confused?

It seems governments are genetically programmed to grow when they can, and to ossify when they cannot. Detroit is an extreme example, but America is full of school districts, townships, counties and cities that made sense once but no more. You might say Detroit, like many other cities, missed the signs and got caught in a bad place. But as we said life is too short to waste in the wrong place. And so, cities are at a crossroads with little choice but to change course.

Like it or not some cities are growing too fast and some are slowing down. Many are shrinking. Blame it on lack of planning if you like. That’s where problems begin. But in the end, slower population growth creates problems of its own.
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[Glen Hiemstra is the Founder of Futurist.com, and curator of Dothefuture.com. Dennis Walsh is a sustainability futurist from Canada best known for his work as the first publisher of green@work. Contact us through futurist.com]

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