The possibility that accelerating scientific developments in information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence might converge into a “singularity” has been the subject of science and science fiction writing for some time. The idea most simply described is that at some point, perhaps by the year 2030, developments in these fields will reach a point of accelerated integration where their outcomes become both profound and in a sense unknowable in advance. Machines intelligent enough to seem more than human are just one possibility.
Various organizations are devoted to the study of this integrated view of science, among them the Singularity Institute. On August 14-15, 2010 the Institute will host the Singularity Summit10, in San Francisco. Impressive program line-up, open to the public. You might want to check it out. Michael Vasser, a sometimes writer at Futurist.com, is President of the Institute.
In this video the Institute interviews Peter Norvig, Director of Research at Google, about AI and the coming Singularity
The SpaceX company of Elon Musk launched its Falcon 9 into orbit for the first time today – this is one of the private spacecraft that NASA is counting on for future access to space.
After one aborted launch attempt that shut down automatically when telemetry readings were not correct, a second attempt took the craft successfully to orbit. Look for updates here
What I find especially interesting about SpaceX and their plans is that they are quite clear about their vision to expand human activity in space. They are not timid about saying so. And by the way they have some 31 launches already scheduled through 2015, including becoming the supply ship to the space station if all goes according to plan
The SpaceX company of Elon Musk is scheduled to launch its Falcon 9 for the first time today – this is one of the private spacecraft that NASA is counting on for future access to space.
If you missed it today, this underwater diving expedition for ABC news by Philippe Cousteau Jr. and Sam Champion is worth watching. I have a foreboding that humans will sacrifice just about anything to acquire the last drops of oil, no matter the risks or the alternatives. I am not sure why we are so terrified of changing the energy picture.
I just finished a day of consulting with GHD Engineering in Kuala Lumpur (I am doing a long range planning project with them) and we discussed, among many trends, the future of energy.
As I flew back and forth I was reading the recent book by James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren. In it he makes a strong case for 4th generation nuclear power. This is intriguing me.
Right here in my location is a Bill Gates backed company, TerraPower, developing next gen nuclear. This is worth exploring as a scalable and green alternative energy.
This week I am in San Diego to attend and provide a closing keynote to the Employee Health Care Conference, a program of the Conference Board and Coopers and Towers Watson. In February we presented the same event in New York.
My topic is 21st Century Health Care. While health care reform was up in the air when we met in New York, now it is in place. More appropriately called Health Insurance Reform, the bill just approved by the U.S. Congress for the first time establishes the concepts for a system that attempts to cover everyone. Thus, the U.S. joins the industrialized world. But the reforms are more about insurance than health care, and the changes that are coming and need to come in health care itself are what I will address. Most of the conference focuses on innovations in health benefits and employee health programs in the business world.
You can follow the conference on Twitter at #ehcc10
Recently I had the chance to sit down with Kate Vitasek, author of the new book, Vested Outsourcing, with Mike Ledyard and Karl Manrodt. Outsourcing is a controversial but fundamental business activity – as Kate notes Peter Drucker used to say “Do what you do best and outsource the rest,” and the idea of finding people who can do something better, faster and cheaper than you goes all the way back to Adam Smith and beyond.
In recent history outsourcing has become conflated with off-shoring. Having some other company do your IT work, your PR work, your janitorial work, and so on, does not mean, necessarily, sending that work out of the community or overseas. Though of course, in practice it often does just that. I support policies that would limit off-shoring and certainly would not reward it. And, in general I believe that the future well-being of the economy depends on building more local capacity within a global economy.
Leaving the issue of off-shoring aside, however, there is a great deal to learn from Kate and the concept of Vested Outsourcing. The goal is to make outsourcing a win-win-win proposition when practiced. That is, if done right outsourcing a particular function should lead to cost savings for the company outsourcing, higher margins for the company that gets the work, and better service for the customer. That is the goal of Vested Outsourcing, and this is accomplished by implementing five basic rules explained in the book.
1. Focus on outcomes, not transactions.
2. Focus on the WHAT, not the HOW.
3. Agree on clearly defined and measurable outcomes.
4. Optimize pricing model incentives for cost/service trade-offs.
5. Governance structure provides insight, not merely oversight.
These rules add up to a constructive, mutually beneficial relationship between the companies involved. The research done by Kate and her colleagues at the University of Tennessee demonstrates that outsourcing following these rules lead to such a relationship.
My take on all this is that some outsourcing is inevitable and optimal and, given that, it ought to be done well.
As we watched the last days of the Olympics the past few days, I zeroed in on television ads sponsored by the American Oil & Gas industry – lots of these ads – and by the American coal industry. Both emphasized, with patriotic overtones, how important they are to creating jobs, and to achieving national independence, along with how amazingly clean they are. Not a word, not a nod, to impact on future climate. Both ad campaigns are efforts to inoculate the public against any new climate change legislation and to keep subsidies alive.
I just came across a very good video summarizing the state of climate science. I doubt it will be convincing to committed skeptics or to the funders of the energy ads.
It is a mystery to me, really it is, why so many people are willing to gamble with the future, when we don’t have to.
One of the amusing, and sad, things about discussions of the future of transit in the U.S. is that it is so often discussed in one of two ways, both intended to make it seem rather outlandish. First, it is discussed as something vaguely foreign – sure, they have widespread transit in Europe, but we are not like them. Or, second the concept of widely accessible transit is presented is simply not a possible idea, like it has never been tried in whatever city is in question (except New York and Washington DC). So, when commentators like Duncan Black simply point to historical maps of transit systems in city after city, I can only wish we could go back to the future with transit. Here is the map of Seattle’s old transit (street car) system from 1933. It went everywhere.
This series of 9 short videos explores a variety of topics. The videos can be seen in the view window below, or double-click the video to see it full size at YouTube-Futurist Speaker.
The Prince’s Rainforest Project
Join the Prince's Rainforest Project. Working with governments, businesses and non-profit organisations around the world to find solutions to deforestation – and to find them fast – with the ambition of ‘making the trees worth more alive than dead’.
