In mid-October 2009 I gave a closing keynote speech to the 2009 Institute for Oral Health conference on defining quality. They had asked me to address the question of how one goes about promoting systems change. The podcast of my talk is now available here.

To provide some insight on making systems change, I went back to the well of my days directing a program in Whole Systems Design, and to the material on managing change that we incorporate into our work in long-range strategic planning. Systems so resist being changed, and there is a formula that helps one to understand how to overcome this resistance. The formula is: D x V + a > R.

That is, Dissatisfaction, times Vision, plus action must be greater than Resistance before systems change can begin. If a system resists change, and they generally do, one can increase dissatisfaction, for example by pointing out the consequences of not changing. Or one can develop and communicate a compelling vision that is so attractive that people want to move toward it. And, one can couple that with clear winning steps or actions. Of course a combination of all three are usually necessary to overcome the inertia caused by resistance.

I recently returned from presenting a workshop at the European Conference on Creativity and Innovation in Brussels. The theme of the conference was “Make It Happen,” with a focus on moving from the idea space, into implementation. Keynoters Kobus Neethling, Tim Hurson, Mark Raison, and others brought passionate perspectives to the task of realizing creative efforts, with an almost universal recommendation to envision going beyond what you had imagined.

Creative thinking and thinking about the future are two sides of the same coin. Creativity is often defined as the act of bringing something new, or novel, into being. Ideation — coming up with ideas — is a good first step. But it’s not, obviously, the whole system. How to manage the energies and possibilities, to converge and select one option out of many, and bring as much creative passion to the articulation of the idea as to the idea itself, is a less-studied part of the process. Hence the conference theme.

A few days later, I was in central France, in the small city of Poitiers, where I used to live. There, by chance I had the opportunity to connect with a man named Jacky Denieul, who is involved in a program to bring creativity into community development, along the line of Richard Florida’s work. The ambitious program to identify and nurture regional creativity draws upon culture, economy, environment, science, and connection to the land.

Once again, I thought about the power of future thinking and creativity. At Futurist.com, we write often about the city of the future, or the community of the future, with the implicit understanding that creativity is that force which will bring us from what is to what can be. To see creativity per se being brought into the process of community development, brings the implicit to the fore.

The whole trip was inspiring–with theory, practice, and vision contributing to the pervasive sense of a world full not only of possibilities, but also plans for making them happen.

I’ve been asked all year how the futuring business is going – are people interested in the future, and willing to pay for programs? The year 2009 has been up and down, but beginning in mid-September we began one of the most amazing strings of programs and events in two decades.

First, Lexis Nexis invited me to keynote their annual customer conference for their insurance customers. They had the biggest registration they’ve had yet, for their event at Stone Mountain, Georgia.

Then, I had the chance to keynote the annual Zino Society Zillionaire conference, where 28 start-up companies presented their case for funding. We’ve written about the event and the entrepreneurs who impressed me before. Following that event, I was invited as a guest to a regular meeting of the Northwest Energy Angels in Bellevue, Washington. There I heard four more companies present their ideas for energy-related ventures. The most impressive to me was Rapid Electric Vehicles, a Vancouver BC company that is converting popular fleet vehicles like the Ford F-150 to all-electric. Cities like Santa Monica are making early buys.

Later, in October attended the day-long FiRe Westcoast Global Conference. This is a Mark Anderson and Strategic News Service event, for which I served on the advisory committee. Here again, in addition to several issues and topical presentations, we heard from a dozen start-up companies selected as FireStars. So by the end of these three events I had head from over 40 start-up ventures. This was an impressive and encouraging series of programs participate in, giving me great hope for the future. Creativity and entrepreneurship are alive and well even in these harsh economic times.

In the middle of these conferences I provided a closing keynote for the Washington Wildlife and Recreation Coalition annual fund-raising and award breakfast, were I had the pleasure of chatting with former Washington governors Mike Lowry and Dan Evans. In this speech I riffed on some thoughts of my old futurist mentor, Ed Lindaman, on why people are attracted to a place like the northwest. People are aquatropic – drawn to water, creatropic – drawn to creativity, egotropic – drawn to recreation, and silvatropi – drawn to trees, and so an organization like the WWRC which works to preserve recreational and natural lands is vital to what people want and need.

Then began my October odyssey. On October 6 I was in Watertown, South Dakota to speak to the faculty and staff of Lake Area Technical Institute, and later in the day to be the featured speaker at the annual Feuerstein Speaker Series. I addressed both future trends, and the need to create preferred futures.

From there I hurried back to Seattle-Tacoma to speak to a dinner meeting of the board and management of a local company named the Threshold Group. This company provides financial services to high-net worth families, and we discussed the future as related both to the economy and families.

Next I headed to Monterey, California, where I keynoted the annual leadership conference of Rotary International for the Western Region. This was a wonderful audience of 600. The highlight for me was asking this audience what their image of the future is these days – and being surprised and pleased when their images were not pessimistic, but rather consisted of things like, “and end to world hunger,” “a cure for cancer,” “solving the world water problem,” and so on. These people, devoted to service through their organization assume that service will lead to positive outcomes, and I left their event feeling more hopeful as well.

Then it was off to Michigan State University in Lansing, Michigan, where I provided the opening keynote for an Association of University Interior Designers Conference. We had an interesting time discussing the future of design, of interior and exterior spaces and educational settings.

From MSU, and after the FiRe event in Seattle, I flew to San Jose where I gave a conference closing presentation to the Institute for Oral Health Leadership Institute. A favorite issue of mine related to health care has been for many years the way that dental health is generally left out of the conversation, and not incidentally is a type of insurance that is almost impossible to buy on the individual market. The group was interested in a program on how to make systemic change. Reaching back into my days as a professor in systems change, as well as my consulting work on organizational planning, I presented the barriers to systemic change and how to begin to overcome them.

The following week, as we have noted earlier, I had the privilege of speaking to the 125th Anniversary of the Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber of Commerce. With them I took a bit of risk and, in addition to discussing future trends and where the economy is going, challenged them to turn the greater Tacoma area into a leader in sustainable business and to pay attention to the imbalances in our current economy that contributed to the economic downturn.

A couple of days later I was in Atlanta, Georgia on behalf of the Boeing Company. One of their programs in recent years has included inviting executives from Chinese airline, airport and the Chinese equivalent of the FAA to participate in weeks-long education program, introducing them to business principles and airport and airline operations. Many times Boeing has invited me to spend a half-day with these Chinese executives to discuss long term future trends, and strategic leadership. We focused this time on the four key skills sets of the strategic leader – being future oriented, being vision driven, being strategic, and being collaborative.

The Chinese participated at a high level in small group discussion sessions. Most impressive to me was that when asked to forecast the years 2020, 2030 and 2050, the Chinese it seemed to me thought like Americans circa the 1960’s or so. That is to say, with great optimism and a sense that anything can be done if we put our mind to it. By these time periods their images were full of predictions like, “cure for cancer,” “new non-polluting energy sources developed,” and “settlement on Mars.” Even more impressive was when small teams were asked to describe their preferred vision for air travel in China circa 2020 and they spoke in ambitious terms of “ticketless check-in,” “everyone in China can afford to fly,” “far more capacity,” “Chinese airlines in for Fortune 500,” and so on. They exhibited such hope and confidence that I was impressed – it reminded me of the old days of the space program here in the States, for example.

After that program, I headed to a retreat center in upstate Wisconsin, where I lead the Lakeview Medical Center board and management along with their new partner the Marshfield Clinic in a day of futuring. This was the first ever combined board meeting, and we explored future trends related to health care, and developed strategic implications for the enterprise.

After a week home, I headed back to Minneapolis where, this past Friday November 6, I had the opportunity to work with the combined marketing teams of the Land O Lakes four business units, in their first ever gathering. They had been in a day-long learning and networking session on the future of marketing developed by my partners on this event, Imperatives LLC. The 95 marketing specialists demonstrated a great capacity for foresight and thinking through strategic implications as they worked on min-scenarios together.

Seven weeks into the future. Once again, I learned there is a hunger not just for figuring out the future, but creating a preferred future.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com. If you book a 2010 event before December 15, 2009, receive a 20% discount off standard fees.

You have a chance to vote for the Inc.com new entrepreneur of the year in the next 24 hours, and here is why I suggest you vote for a Seattle, Washington based company called Hydrovolts.

Last week co-founders Chris Leyerle, COO, and Burt Hamner, President, sat down for an hour with me, and explained their technology and business plan – I had seen them earlier at entrepreneur events this year.

The idea is simple, elegant. The world is laced with irrigation canals, both ancient and modern. Many are completely lined with concrete or stone. Many have access roads and power lines along them, in part to service pumps. Into these canals, not to mention free flowing streams, Hydrovolts proposes to drop rotating drums using what they call a “flip-wing” design. The rotation will spin magnets over a coil, and thus you have a simple electric generator.

You can see tests of the prototypes at the Hydrovolts YouTube channel.

This is such a good idea, it is surprising that it has not been done. It is simpler and less expensive than tidal power, or low-head hydro, and by targeting canal systems first, Hydrovolts avoids most of the environmental issues faced when using free flowing streams (though ultimately there is more capacity in streams and rivers). There are good prospects for development partners, for example the thousands of public and private irrigation districts in the U.S. alone.

Most surprising to me was the electricity potential – Hydrovolts drum generator, suspended approximately 10 per mile of canal or stream could generate 5-10 kilowatts each, (an average home uses about 1.5 a day), and when you then imagine canals many miles long, the total capacity is quite large. The potential energy increases as the stream speed increases, and even greater efficiencies can be gained by placing the flip-wing generators in the falling water of low-head spillways typically of many canal systems.

Hydrovolts was selected last week at the Pacific Northwest Cleantech Open as one of three finalists to be sent to compete for the national prize.

Check out Hydrovolts, and go to Inc.com to vote for them as new entrepreneur of the year.

I had an enjoyable day yesterday, speaking at the 125th Anniversary Celebration of the Tacoma Pierce County Chamber. Beginning with a trip back to Tacoma’s boisterous past as the self-named “City of Destiny,” the luncheon finished up with a video of upcoming business leaders, including representatives from the Port of Tacoma, the University of Washington-Tacoma, young executives, and independent professionals, discussing the direction Tacoma and Pierce County Washington in the upcoming years.

When I spoke, I told a few stories about one of my daughters, now in her late twenties. As I watched the video of the emerging leaders in the Tacoma Pierce County business environment, I was struck once again by the determination, energy and vision of this generation. They are a clear-eyed bunch: aware of the challenges we all face, and committed to shaping a vision for their community. It would seem the destiny of the South Puget Sound is in good hands.

I suspect your community is similarly graced with bright and enterprising business men and women.

The well-produced and engaging video is here.

Next Generation Extended Cut from Scott Gribble on Vimeo.

The past week has been one of publicity for me, Futurist.com, and Seattle-area futurists.

The Seattle Times, in their Sunday magazine called Pacific Northwest, did a cover story profile, called “The Futurists.” The writer, Carol Ostrom, had approached me with the concept for a story on future trends and in the initial conversation asked whether there were other futurists in the Seattle area. I suggested she speak to several I know, including our colleague Brenda Cooper [click on Brenda and note she has a new paperback book out] and friend Mark Anderson, along with people like Sesh Velamoor. Carol reached most of them, plus a few more, and produced a nice overview of who futurists are and what we think (whether we use the moniker “futurist” or not). Check it out.

The second item in the local press was a supplement produced for the regional suburban weekly papers, called the Reporter (in my local town’s case, the Kirkland Reporter). As is true in most large communities, and is certainly true in the Puget Sound area, the future of transportation has been and is a constant issue, some would say struggle. I was interviewed about what I saw for suburban transportation in ten or twenty years. Briefly, with the opening of the first light-rail line in the Seattle area, I suggested that we’d see more light rail – if the new line is seen as moderately successful. In addition, we’ll see a continuing shift toward more walkable towns, as people age and seek to reduce their driving. Finally, we are going to see a faster than expected move to electrify the personal auto and related infrastructure. The reporter was a bit disappointed, I think, that I did not say we’d be flying in jet packs or flying cars in twenty years. Two articles resulted, here, and another here based on a series I wrote a year ago for a manufacturing association.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

Recently my friend Mark Anderson was quoted as saying that rising health insurance costs were a key reason that General Motors faltered. This was my argument when I suggested to Business Week early this year that relieving business of the private insurance industry costs would be an innovation that would assist in getting beyond the recession.

Here is an example of what I am talking about. At Futurist.com we pay Regence Blue Shield of Washington for a small company policy that covers just two people. Today, I received my new annual rate beginning November 2009 – and for the same coverage that does not include dental or vision care the cost increase is 29%, up to a total of $1,880 a month. $22,500 a year to cover two people.

It is not clear how this is in any way sustainable, and we are like every small business in America. I presume the gambit by Regence is to encourage us to drop or reduce coverage. Hard to see how it could be anything else.

Health care insurance reform in the U.S. would be a good thing for the future.

A few weeks ago, we wrote about the Prince’s Rainforest Project. (see The Prince and the Frog). Their SOS Campaign launches today.

Slowing rainforest depletion is imperative. As the project website states: “If we lose the battle against tropical deforestation, we lose the battle against climate change.”

Futurist.com has joined the business community in partnering with the Prince’s Rainforest Project. On their Partners Page you’ll find the impressive list of organizations, including 3M, CocaCola, Dell, Google, and (fittingly) Amazon.com.uk, who have put their support behind the initiative.

Today, as the campaign is officially launched, we’re joining with them and others in helping send “the biggest SOS to the world.” And if that puts you in mind of a certain “message in a bottle,” you’d be correct.

To join and add your voice (with or without a frog…), sign up here.

I had a great time yesterday at the Zino Society Zillionaire Investment Forum, at the Four Seasons Hotel in Seattle. I had the privilege of delivering a brief keynote speech. The Forum was an opportunity for 28 entrepreneurs to present the investment case for their companies, competing for two investment prizes of $50,000, as well as for exposure to an audience of investors.

The Zino Society, brainchild of CEO Cathi Hatch, bills itself as the premier membership, business and social network in the Puget Sound area to connect accredited investors with entrepreneurs seeking funding. After attending this event, their major conference but just one of many events the Zino Society staff delivers annually, it can be said that they live up to their billing.

Each of the 28 companies was well prepared, they represented a surprising variety of market opportunities from deck-rail construction to laser-based materials assessment, to turbine-powered electricity, to several internet plays to organize package delivery, enable better ride sharing, or improve online media.

In my keynote speech, I noted that as a result of hearing these enthusiastic business leaders talk about their dreams, I was feeling much more optimistic about the future. The heart of what I offered was a call for transformative entrepreneurship, that focuses not just on making money but on making a difference. To accomplish that entrepreneurs need to be future oriented, vision driven, collaborative, and strategic. And I noted in closing they need to have fun – the reason most of them began their dream in the first place.

After the presentations a panel retired to select 6 finalists, three technology plays and three non-technology opportunities. These will be subjected to due diligence for the next month or so, at which time the two winners will be announced.

I generally agreed with the top 6 selection, who were:

Technology Finalists…

Photon Machines, Inc.: Laser-based material measurements to speed decision making and analysis from the geochemical lab to material and energy intensive process control. Basically, point a laser tool at any material and in seconds analyze what it is made of.

Enroute Systems Corporation: using Internet and software to ship packages more efficiently. Their systems enables customers and shippers to select the most cost effective method, something you would think is easy now, but is not.

GiftTango Corporation: providing online and retail merchants the ability to offer gift and membership cards to any internet connected device. Buy a gift card online, and it appears as an image on your cell phone, and later show the phone image in a store to make a purchase.

Non-Technology Finalists…

MicroGREEN Polymers, Inc.: giving the plastics industry and the world economically and ecologically viable advanced plastics technology to promote sustainable living. Basically they create plastic with air bubbles, using far less material, encouraging cradle to cradle recycling.

Zero Crossing Engineering: provides integrated tuning solutions for the musical instrument industry. Install their automatic tuner, costing less than $100, on an electric or acoustic guitar, and the musician can quietly and perfectly tune the instrument while on stage.

Harbor Wing Technologies, Inc.: robotic wind-driven unmanned surface vehicles for defense missions, and computerized WingSails for commercial and recreational boating.

Other companies I particularly liked (and I liked every single one to be honest) include:
Ballentine Railing, LLC. – modular steel railing system
CoreWerks – new chairs to resolve low back pain
Drop Station – banks of lockers to receive shipments. My 2009 client Grainger Inc. an early customer
EnergeticX – making ride sharing safe and easy
Grace & Game, LLC – fashionable golf clothing for women
Hydrovolts – a simple rotary turbine placed in irrigation canals to produce electricity – I would have made this one a winner. A really great idea not just in the U.S. but in the developing world.
Journey Gym – briefcase size portable gym, targeted for every hotel room.
Julep Nail Parlor – do we need more nail parlors – yes we need this one from an ex Starbucks exec.
Light-Based Technologies – control systems for LED lights.
Oasis Diagnostics – Using saliva specimens instead of blood samples for diagnostic testing, faster and less painful and complex.

To read about these and other companies in this year’s competition, visit either the Zino site, or a summary at an event co-sponsor, the Puget Sound Business Journal.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

The Prince and the Frog – it’s not what you think.

Prince Charles envites you to embrace the frogs, and in doing so save the tropical rain forest. It’s not a fairy tale, but an SOS to save a crucial part of the planet, upon which we all depend.

The rainforests, where these frogs live, are the lungs of the planet. Not only do they produce a majority of the world’s oxygen, the tropical forests also act as carbon sinks, sequestering approximately 20% of greenhouse gas emissions internationally. But now, the voracious speed of rainforest destruction, coupled with the emissions produced in the course of the deforestation (which, on a global level, amounts to more greenhouse gas emissions than the entire international transportation sector combined!), are pushing us ever closer to a point of no return.

So Prince Charles wants you to take a good look at that frog. It’s the mascot for the Prince’s Rainforest Project. We’ve known about the Business and Environment Programme offered through Cambridge University/Prince of Wales College for awhile – I participated in one of the North American gatherings last summer. This initiative to save the rainforests is more targeted, and, if possible, even more urgent. If the tropical rainforests become too compromised, other efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change, or to slow its progress, will likely fail. As go the tropical rainforests – and their frogs – so go we, Princes and all.

The UN Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, coming up in December, will address a program to provide financial incentives to reduce rainforest deforestation. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) will help to lay out the ground work for a transition to more sustainable activities. However, the implementation will be years off. And we don’t have that time.

In the face of this, after a meeting of world leaders in London last spring, hosted by Prince Charles, the Informal Working Group on Interim Financing for REDD (IWG-IFR) was formed to address this crucial gap.

And now, the Prince—and his frog—are sending you a SOS asking for your support for these emergency interim measures to curb deforestation, and to help spread the word on the connection between tropical deforestation and climate change. We have joined in our support of this, and urge you to do so as well (www.rainforestsos.org). They are working to gain one million signatures. You can join at Futurist.com (see the form below or link on the home page), or at their site. See the nice series of YouTube videos as well, with celebrity/frog cameos.

Sign up. This is a cause worth supporting. Let’s make this one story that ends happily ever after.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet video host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.