The future of transportation

by Glen Hiemstra on 08/02/10 at 9:03 pm |  

Tomorrow I have the privilege of doing the keynote speech for the opening of the 2010 Northwest Transportation Conference, being held on the campus of OSU in Corvallis, Oregon. I’ve been asked to offer “Reflections on Transportation Futures – Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow.”

My belief is that for transportation we are at a time in history somewhat like a century ago – a time when new energy developments combined with inventiveness to radically change how, where, and when people could achieve mobility. The automobile age that began a century ago has now led to its own problems, even as it just now expands rapidly in parts of the world like China.

Looking ahead, over the next decade or two we will, nationally and internationally, need to be thinking systemically about travel demand and supply, advanced transportation technologies, and how to achieve sustainable transportation, if that is possible.

In my speech I’ll be highlighting 4 key trends – economic volatility, environmental issues remaining in the foreground, the end of cheaper and cheaper energy (which enabled the last century of transportation), and shifting demographics. From these four core trends arise four key challenges – making the energy transition, developing transportation around how we want to live rather than developing our living spaces to accommodate transportation, making Philly legal (borrowing from Duncan Black) which is to say re-inventing our towns and cities, and finally stepping up to actual breakthrough thinking.

Here are the slides I’ll be using.

Transportation Today and Tomorrow

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4 Responses to “The future of transportation”

  1. Greg

    Feb 11th, 2010

    The four key points here look an interesting starting point and it strikes a similar chord to that of an article written by Mark Philips, from Jaguar Cars for the Future Agenda Project, in which he touches on many of the same points to provide an interesting insight into the future and challenges surrounding global transportation (http://www.futureagenda.org/?cat=5).

  2. Chris Henry

    Feb 18th, 2010

    Inspiring presentation, Glen! Thanks for coming to the NWTC.

    Do you have links to the embedded videos?

    There were at least two that were intriguing that I’d like to share with others. From what I can remember, one was about urban form, how it changed with the car and how it can be different as told by a man reflecting on the experience of his father, himself and his son. I think it was developed by a car sharing company??? The other was by an IBM group (I think) with a young girl describing the future of transportation with ITS through cartooning.

    Any leads would be appreciated.

  3. Glen Hiemstra

    Feb 18th, 2010

    Chris, thanks for asking. The second video you mention, young girl describing the future of transportation was not in my program, so that must have been from someone else. However, use a search engine to find “Honda Dream Mobility” and you’ll find some wonderful video in a dream the impossible series, including one looking at transport in 80 years. As for the Intrago Mobility video (meet the go-gos), I once received clearance from them to use that – check around the Intrago Mobility website and see what they have in public PR stuff. I am not cleared to distribute what I have but they might share it.

  4. Chris Henry

    Feb 19th, 2010

    Thanks for the lead to Intrago, Glen!

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