Flu Pandemic Likelihood and Paradox

by on 28/04/09 at 4:14 pm |  

Thinking about the current Swine Flu epidemic and possible pandemic, a couple of thoughts. First, among the most asked question of me as a futurist speaker in the past several years has been, “Will we eventually be wiped out by a global pandemic or plague?” My answer is that this is possible, but nearly as remote a possibility as being wiped out by an asteroid. In fact, the asteroid scenario has a better chance of ending the human species on earth.

Why have I answered this way? Has the current situation changed my thinking? Not at all. What we see in the current epidemic is the ability of a new virus form to appear, but this happens on a regular basis. This is not new.

What is new is the global communication network that did not exist in 1918 or until recently. With just a few thousand total cases, and barely a hundred known deaths, the entire global community – government, science, health, travel, and so on – are mobilized. This is the reason a true pandemic is so unlikely today.

Of course rapid travel by jet plane means that a virus can be spread world-wide in a day or two, and that may be the case now. But, even before disease manifests in a given area, everyone is on alert, and scientists continue the around-the-clock global race to find mitigations, whether vaccine, or treatment, or whatever it takes. So again, the pandemic risk is small, if a pandemic requires thousands and thousands or millions of cases.

Watchfulness is wise. But consider this paradox: The Internet (and 24-hour satellite news) fan the flames of global panic even as they provide the communication tools through which the panic most likely becomes unnecessary.

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One Response to “Flu Pandemic Likelihood and Paradox”

  1. Brenda Cooper

    Apr 29th, 2009

    I agree, Glen. Short of a virus vector that works far more efficiently than influenza, our knowledge and awareness are excellent tools. The speed of information flow is amazing, and in this case, the mild panic is exactly what we need to stay safe.
    If this gets worse before it gets better, I’m going to see if there’s any easy way to tell if more internet-connected societies react differently than others, and how. I realize almost everyone is connected at some level now, but I imagine New Yorkers are more connected than citizens of Mexico City.