What a Futurist Does
by Glen Hiemstra on 26/03/09 at 3:22 pm | 
At his blog (take a look) Richard Leyland provides a very good summation of Black Swan theory, narrative fallacy, and complex systems. Just a thought to add, about “futurism” and futurists. There is a popular misconception by those outside this profession that the goal of a futurist must be to make some kind of accurate prediction of the future. People do love to hear about trends. But this does not actually describe how we approach trends and future predictions.
Because “black swans” (unpredictable events) do occur, we know that the future is not perfectly or even largely predictable. But professional futurists avoid the popular logical fallacy that seems to follow – if the future is not perfectly predictable, then it is not predictable at all, and thus there is no utility to looking at the future. I hear this all the time, and Richard’s article implies that it is best to ignore the future and concentrate on being flexible and agile, steering your organization moment by moment.
However, what a good futurist does, and what I do is this: we say, look, the future is more knowable than you think, though not perfectly predictable. For example, we know that, barring a “black swan event” like an asteroid strike or pandemic, the population over age 65 is going to more than double by 2025, until up to one-third of many national populations will be that old. For many people, this is a complete surprise, even though with just a tiny effort at examining the future it is quite obvious. It surprises people because they are told, over and over again, that the future is unpredictable (meaning not perfectly predictable) and thus there is no reason to look ahead. Instead, one should just adjust minute to minute to whatever happens.
In other words, I encourage people, and organizations, to learn what we can know about the future, while increasing our flexibility and agility to respond to the inevitable surprises that will occur no matter how skilled we are at seeing ahead. In the next decade, it is more than likely that the most important thing that happens – a war, a technology invention, a natural disaster – will “surprise” everyone when it happens. That is true. But, there are many things that are very likely to characterize the future playing field, that we can know, and we ought to make an effort to see what they are.
The most knowable future of all is the future you prefer. And you can decide now on actions that will point you in that direction, so long as you remember that the destination will change as you move toward it, and that at any moment a surprising event may occur that changes your direction altogether. This is not a problem, it is just how the world works.
Really good work, Richard. Check out his blog.
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Glen Hiemstra
Mar 26th, 2009
A reader and fan recently wrote:
Dear Glen,
It was a pleasure listening to your presentation in Savannah…..my wife and I thoroughly enjoyed your comments and ideas. And great job on the Q and A wrap up session.
I am forwarding your email and blog entry to others who are also interested in these ideas.
We appreciate the good comments, GH.
Richard Leyland
Mar 26th, 2009
Thanks for your comments Glen, and I like your perspective on knowing the future you prefer, then plotting your route.
It put me in mind of the place where I often work: a co-operative office in London called The Hub, it’s a place for social innovators go to start businesses and to collaborate. One of the joys of the place is that it’s full of campaigners, but they’re on the front foot. They’re not decrying government for lack of firm action on climate change, they’re offering new solutions. The world isn’t a complex, unknowable and worrying place; it’s a place of opportunity and they’re doing it now.
I think the world of social enterprise can teach the conventional corporate world a lot about how to tackle the future.
Richard
Kanna Hudson
Mar 27th, 2009
When I first started learning about what a futurist does, I was amazed to think about how much time students spend learning about history, compared to how little time we spend learning/thinking about the future! I don’t remember EVER talking about the future in high school. Straightforward ideas (like population aging), likely possibilities (like radical new technologies), and pressing issues (like climate change) are all worth thinking and talking about in our schools, alongside history. Great post!
Eirik Newth
Mar 30th, 2009
Thank you for your clarification, mr. Hiemstra. The misconception that all aspects of the future are fundamentally unknowable is widespread, and as a futurist writer and lecturer based in Oslo, Norway I have to deal with it quite often. Case in point: at a business symposium recently, I was the last lecturer of the day. The lecturer before me gave a brilliant performance, demonstrating the many ways in which our brains deceive us (and yes, Taleb’s black swans were mentioned).
In response, I felt the need to change the tone of my lecture, emphasizing the fact that there are tools which enable us to make valuable educated guesses about future events, and they are being used to great economic effect as we speak. The case I chose was Russia, Norway’s only potential enemy. During the Soviet era, our national defense was scaled towards resisting an all-out attack from the Red Army, which at the time had the manpower to occupy large swathes of Europe.
After the fall of the USSR and the subsequent chaotic break-up, the threat of invasion and permanent occupation was greatly reduced. And as a result of the huge demographic change Russia is undergoing (the population is falling at a rate of around 700 000 people annually), our threat assessment has had to change considerably yet again. The upshot: our defense is now being scaled down, from a large, standing conscription-based army towards a mobile, professional force of about 30 000 soldiers.
This has not been well received among most Norwegians, but as the Chief of Military Staff, Sverre Diesen, has pointed out: maintaining the old model army would be very expensive. By taking the long-term trends into account, we are saving on the order of $6 billion a year. It’s fully possible to imagine black-swan type scenarios, such as a reemergence of the Soviet Union. The question here is whether it makes economic sense to prepare for such an eventuality. In this case, the scenario builders and trend analysts win out.
Glen Hiemstra
Mar 31st, 2009
Eirik, thanks, that is an especially powerful example about the value of knowing what we can know.
.calvin
Apr 12th, 2009
I guess I am a frustrated futurist. I wish back in the days, I had a mentor or someone around me who understood how important the tasks of the futurists is for businesses and humankind alike.