How Long Will the Recession Last?
by Glen Hiemstra on 24/03/09 at 9:54 am | 
A topic on everyone’s mind is how long the current recession will last? That this recession is steeper and deeper than any since the early 1980’s, and it looks now like any since the Depression, is becoming fact. But when do we turn around?
I have been addressing this question and the economic meltdown for some time, here, and in my Outlook 2009. Recently I discussed the question with media futurist Gerd Leonhard in a video we produced for our ongoing series, whereisitgoing.com.
Gerd, based in Europe, believes as of now that we have a long way to go before a recovery begins. I argue in the video, as I have here at Futurist.com, that a turn-around is coming sooner. The amplifying effect of the 24-hour news cycle and mostly the Internet has had several effects – exaggerating our sense of what is happening, and speeding up the down cycle. This amplifying effect will work on the up cycle as well, and while this is not the only factor, it is one of the factors that will lead us to turn-around by year’s end. A turn-around does not mean we have recovered, but that the bottom has been reached and a recovery has begun.
Now, what comes out the other end is not the same economy as we had prior to this recession. Gerd makes the case in the video that the recession is partly the culmination of several disruptive changes, the Internet chief among them, now deeply impacting business models. On the other side of this recession is a changed set of business rules, and a new cultural outlook. Watch our conversation, recorded via Skype video, below.
Print This Post
Mat
Mar 25th, 2009
Hi Glen, Your internet amplifying argument is well founded but not all news is equal.
Bad news sells better than good. We all want to know every detail about the bad but gloss over the good with a lively cheer!
My point is that good and bad stories may not be amplified equally.
Glen Hiemstra
Mar 26th, 2009
Mat,
Good point, if we focus just on news itself. When I say that the amplifying effect of the new communication environment may speed a recovery, just as it speeded a collapse, I am not referring to news reports themselves. Instead I am thinking of actual transactions, the speeding up of product and service development and delivery cycles, instant access to network data, and so on. So I am thinking about how the machines amplify us, in both directions.
Cameron
Dec 28th, 2009
Our country had been so much affected by this Economic Recession. there are lots of job cuts and company shutdowns. We are seeing some signs of economic recovery right now and we hope that it would continue.
:
| Acneguy
Jan 5th, 2010
I think we are also seeing some signs of recovery from the Economic Recession. Of course, we have no idea of how long it will take to completely recover, but some say it’s going to be longer than for the other recessions in decades. I also scanned an article yesterday that said business owners need a new set of tactics to do well during recovery.