Comments on: Futurist Speaker Glen Hiemstra: Outlook 2009

By: glen Hiemstra

glen Hiemstra — Fri, 01 May 2009 23:34:04 +0000

Bob, very interesting observations. Brenda Cooper, affiliated with Futurist.co, bought her netbook and loves it. You raise challenging issue – it seems like good idea for consumer, but will margins be so small that industry will not, cannot fully support a shift in this direction?

By: Bob Merritt

Bob Merritt — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:25:20 +0000

What Netbooks have established is that consumers are happy with a portable computing device that supports a much lower level of performance than the traditional PC industry wants to supply. The issue is whether Moore’s Law has driven the costs of supplying an adequate amount of processing power far below what can be profitably supported with business models that competed with full service desktops and high-end notebooks.

If the concept that consumers can find adequate levels of personal computing at significantly lower cost doesn’t support the “long-term viable corporate technology” of the traditional market leaders, I think it is the corporate technology and infrastructure of those companies that is at risk.

Whether you call them Netbooks or CULV-based notebooks, the genie is out of the bottle. A growing percentage of consumers now know that they do not have to pay what they have paid in the past in order to get acceptable levels of personal computing services, and I don’t think that trend can be reversed.

By: Glen Hiemstra

Glen Hiemstra — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:52:15 +0000

Jan, this is a great overview of some features of net books. Today while flying and reading USA Today I saw an article on a netbook that has detachable magnetic-backed screen – you can stick it to the refrigerator with or without keyboard when you are not carrying it around. Pretty neat.

By: Jan Neumeister

Jan Neumeister — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:10:18 +0000

Glen, I think that netbooks are a great alternative for size and price-conscious users. Battery life is at about 7 hours already with the new Asus line and is probably going to be even higher in the near future, which will make these small machines a great thing to have when you need to travel with a light load somewhere outside of civilization.

Next, there are graphic units already in some, which allows video-computing, leisure gaming and so on, which captures another segment.

Lastly, the low price is likely to attract mainstream web-surfers and document-writers in these tough economic times so based on these premises, my own opinion is that netbooks are likely to canibalize a high portion of current notebook’s market shares.

By: Glen Hiemstra

Glen Hiemstra — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 04:38:05 +0000

Jan. This is not a statement that I made…perhaps you heard it somewhere else. I said that netbooks are a growth area. But they are not and will not become a big enough growth area to become a bubble. As to whether they represent viable corporate technology, I would think not, except for those who travel and want to travel light. Having said that, jump ahead 10 years, with traditional increases in computing power, compactness, storage capacity, and so on, and a device the size of a netbook will contain more than most people will need. Except for the size of the screen and the size of the keyboard, which are cramped. A built-in projector would help with the screen size issue, though not be useful in many locations.

By: Jan Neumeister

Jan Neumeister — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 18:10:55 +0000

@1:

“look for the netbook bubble to burst in 12 months as they do not represent long term viable corporate technology”

Could you please clarify this claim, I’m not sure what do you mean by the bursting bubble.

By: Ken Steinberg

Ken Steinberg — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 23:54:20 +0000

Glen,

All good points….thought I would add a couple additional factors to consider.

* There is a lot of discussion about stimulus and the US economy “returning to normal”. What needs to be understood is that normal will not be what we had prior. Normal will include some readjustment which should allow the US to settle into a more reasonable GDP. Real Estate had us on a false valuation plateau.

* While the stimulus is welcomed, the lenders are clearly still not putting money on the street. I have seen this first had with the severe lending practices being exercise on Main St America. That being said, a return to normalcy will be driven by the shear prospect of renewing disposable goods. Middle Americans will cut back on the credit and spending for the short term until mid-summer when they will need to start replenishing durable goods. This will increase demand for blue chip goods. Job growth will lag that gentle uptick probably by another 6 months. With that, the stock market. The $2 Trillion lost will probably see a 50% recovery in value.

* Energy, don’t forget Steven Chu’s preclusion for energy based on renewable resources. A big focus for him…

* Tech : look for the netbook bubble to burst in 12 months as they do not represent long term viable corporate technology but you are right to highlight touch-based tech and mobile. This should really move now that China’s FCC has activated/auctioned new frequencies…

Keep up the great work. Fantastic read.
Regards
Ken