The Future of Terrorism

The Future of Terrorism

August 1st, 2008 | Posted in Future of Terror, Innovation

In 2004 I wrote an article here on how a relatively simple approach could end the war on terrorism. A few people told me they wished it could be communicated to officials.

This week a new report from the Rand Corporation affirmed the same approach that seemed logical to me in 2004.

You can read my whole 2004 article here, but in brief it seemed to me that the logical approach would include:
1. Insist on 2-state solution in Middle East.
2. Declare an end to Middle East oil imports in 10 years.
3. Set a date to withdraw U.S. troops from the Middle East within 10 years.
4. Declare that terror attacks anywhere will be met with law enforcement and, only where necessary, military responses.
5. Strenthen global intelligence efforts.
6. Declare that any nation state that assists terrorism will be isolated, particularly from airplane travel and internet access.
7. Attack regions of world that breed terrorists…with massive education and development assistance.
8. Push the re-start button on the 21st Century.

In their report “How Terrorist Groups End” the Rand group recommends, in short:

* Make policing and intelligence the backbone of U.S. efforts. Al Qa’ida consists of a network of individuals who need to be tracked and arrested. This requires careful involvement of the Central Intelligence Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation, as well as their cooperation with foreign police and intelligence agencies.
* Minimize the use of U.S. military force. In most operations against al Qa’ida, local military forces frequently have more legitimacy to operate and a better understanding of the operating environment than U.S. forces have. This means a light U.S. military footprint or none at all.

It would be a major policy shift, and makes a lot of sense.

Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, consultant, blogger, internet TV show host and founder of Futurist.com. To arrange for a speech contact Futurist.com.

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About Glen Hiemstra

Glen Hiemstra is the founder and owner of Futurist.com. An internationally respected expert on future trends, long-range planning and creating the preferred future, Glen has advised professional, business, and governmental organizations for two decades.

5 Comments

  1. Waitman Gobble   |   Aug 10, 2008

    Hmmm. Internet. Planes. Oil. Somehow that amazing stuff has only been around for a hundred years or so. And we’ve only _really_ been talking for about twenty, but more realistically only about ten.

    I’m not sure about the ‘lock the kids in their room’ method.

    Here in San Francisco there’s a group of people who I suppose are in power who want California to spend 158 billion dollars to completely enclose the Golden Gate bridge with three-quarter inch steel plate – to keep suicidal people from leaping off of it… to their deaths. But me thinks they could spend a measly million to staff some people in a “mental wellness center” right on the bridge. That might help minimize the problem. Then they could use the savings to hire Dr. Phil and send him over to Qaudifalifalfydar or wherever this group of terrorists live, and figure out what the heck their problem is. But he might do something silly like suggest that it would be more cost effective to drop 100,000 FTD ‘feel-fresh’ bouquets on our enemies, instead of bombs.

    But I do teeter occasionally, between my strict up-bringing sense of wanting to beat the snot out of the bozos, and even wrap nine-irons around their necks – and this new bizarre and insane and idealistic concept of using all this amazing stuff we have to create a world that’s a better place for everyone. Jesus, people will start dancing around singing “this is the age of Aquarius”. Yikes!~

    The scariest thing about your proposition, I think, is that in many cases the US Government has ‘aided terrorists’ – training, money, weapons, etc. I think at least on an International level it’s not clear who the bad guys really are. If we could just isolate ourselves it would ‘prolly be much easier, because mostly the bad guys were the so-called “Native Americans” and we apparently dealt with them, end of story.

    Have a great day.

  2. Bill Hawkins   |   Aug 4, 2008

    I totally agree and the implications are enormous.

    The reality is the military-industrial complex is looking for future missions to justify their existence and terrorism is all they can find as a short term threat.

  3. Bill Hawkins   |   Aug 4, 2008

    I totally agree and the implications are enormous.

    The reality is the military-industrial complex is looking for future missions to justify their existance and terrorism is all they can find as a short term threat.

  4. Glen Hiemstra   |   Aug 4, 2008

    Luke, thanks for the comment. It is not completely clear just how both passenger air and internet access could be isolated, but presumably it could be done. What I like about it is that would hit at the two most important technologies to participate in 21st century life, yet not interfere with delivery of food or medicine or anything else vital to a population’s existence. The main problem, it seems to me now is that it is not all clear when governments are actually assisting terrorists – this is usually so plausibly deniable that getting international cooperation is almost impossible.

  5. Luke   |   Aug 3, 2008

    “6. Declare that any nation state that assists terrorism will be isolated, particularly from airplane travel and internet access.”

    Fantastic idea – why hasn’t anybody else thought of this? It’s so simple, but would be so effective!