Comments on: I called it in December 2007 – Oil hit $140 by mid-year http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/ This is the blog of Glen Hiemstra, futurist speaker, keynote speaker, futurist consultant, and Founder of futurist.com Fri, 23 Dec 2011 22:36:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: PolyGuy42 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-80628 PolyGuy42 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 22:01:41 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-80628 Thank you for your response Glen. I agree that we finally saw demand impacted when price was creeping towards $150. But do you think if it keeps climbing towards $200 like you predicted, we will see demand consistently drop? Even with the progress being made in renewable energy, society will not be able to turn off its oil dependence over night. What could the average person do if they find themselves stuck paying for gas when oil is at 200 $/bbl? How plausible is it to think that renewable energy will catch up and start having a significant impact on energy demand? Thank you for your response Glen. I agree that we finally saw demand impacted when price was creeping towards $150. But do you think if it keeps climbing towards $200 like you predicted, we will see demand consistently drop? Even with the progress being made in renewable energy, society will not be able to turn off its oil dependence over night. What could the average person do if they find themselves stuck paying for gas when oil is at 200 $/bbl? How plausible is it to think that renewable energy will catch up and start having a significant impact on energy demand?

]]> By: Glen Hiemstra http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-80564 Glen Hiemstra Mon, 15 Sep 2008 18:50:57 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-80564 Responding both to PredictionPoy and to the comment today from Polyguy42, it does seem that when oil hit the $140-range we did, finally, hit a global price threshhold that began to impact demand. Until that point, it had not been clear what that price would be that would drive down demand. Eventually, given population growth and energy consumption growth in consuming nations such as China, India and the U.S., it seems likely that the price will rise again. Matt Simmons, whom I often quote, argues that $300 is an eventual price. The recent market experience calls that into some question. The situation becomes more murky when you consider the cost of producing new supplies, which is so much greater than old supplies, a factor that argues for eventual higher prices. What might government do if they "step in?" Nationalizing supplies (which is happening in many places outside the U.S.), setting price standards, supporting increased exploration are all possible. Best would be investing in the 21st Century, as Tom Friedman of the NY Times argues, but this is harder when fighting entrenched interests. In the end, all governments are likely to do, in terms of oil, is engage in delaying tactics, attempting to kick the problem to future leaders. Responding both to PredictionPoy and to the comment today from Polyguy42, it does seem that when oil hit the $140-range we did, finally, hit a global price threshhold that began to impact demand. Until that point, it had not been clear what that price would be that would drive down demand.

Eventually, given population growth and energy consumption growth in consuming nations such as China, India and the U.S., it seems likely that the price will rise again. Matt Simmons, whom I often quote, argues that $300 is an eventual price. The recent market experience calls that into some question. The situation becomes more murky when you consider the cost of producing new supplies, which is so much greater than old supplies, a factor that argues for eventual higher prices.

What might government do if they “step in?” Nationalizing supplies (which is happening in many places outside the U.S.), setting price standards, supporting increased exploration are all possible. Best would be investing in the 21st Century, as Tom Friedman of the NY Times argues, but this is harder when fighting entrenched interests. In the end, all governments are likely to do, in terms of oil, is engage in delaying tactics, attempting to kick the problem to future leaders.

]]> By: PolyGuy42 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-80544 PolyGuy42 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:48:32 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-80544 One question I have is if oil hits $200 a barrel, how long do you think it will stay there? I mean how sustainable is 200 $/BB (1 year, 5 years)? I would think that $200 a barrel would be the threshold before government finally steps in and does something, that is if there is anything to be done. Any ideas? One question I have is if oil hits $200 a barrel, how long do you think it will stay there? I mean how sustainable is 200 $/BB (1 year, 5 years)? I would think that $200 a barrel would be the threshold before government finally steps in and does something, that is if there is anything to be done. Any ideas?

]]> By: PredictionBoy http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-54515 PredictionBoy Wed, 09 Jul 2008 14:21:34 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-54515 Yes! But, how much higher? Is $140 an easy step to something even higher? And when will it come back down, Mr. Hiemstra? Yes!

But, how much higher? Is $140 an easy step to something even higher?

And when will it come back down, Mr. Hiemstra?

]]> By: Bill Hawkins http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-53142 Bill Hawkins Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:23:22 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-53142 Glen, Congratulations on your accurate forecast related to the price of oil. Your analysis of the present and future is persuasive. Bill Hawkins Glen,

Congratulations on your accurate forecast related to the price of oil. Your analysis of the present and future is persuasive.

Bill Hawkins

]]> By: Chia Yew Heng http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-53108 Chia Yew Heng Sat, 28 Jun 2008 12:05:55 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-53108 Why is the pace of change to alternative sources of energy, like solar, nuclear, biogas so slow to come by. Are we living out out hedonistic tendency - enjoy first suffer later philosophy, rather than - "The future is creatable, so we have choice.", it seems people are just living opposite of your core belief, "The future we have already created, few choices we have left". Why is the pace of change to alternative sources of energy, like solar, nuclear, biogas so slow to come by. Are we living out out hedonistic tendency – enjoy first suffer later philosophy, rather than – “The future is creatable, so we have choice.”, it seems people are just living opposite of your core belief, “The future we have already created, few choices we have left”.

]]> By: Outlook 2008 at Futurist.com http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/comment-page-1/#comment-53019 Outlook 2008 at Futurist.com Fri, 27 Jun 2008 23:13:32 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/06/27/i-called-it-in-december-2007-oil-hit-140-by-mid-year/#comment-53019 [...] [Second Note: Oil hit $140 on June 26, 2008.] [...] [...] [Second Note: Oil hit $140 on June 26, 2008.] [...]

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