I am always interested when Matt Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert, appears on the TV and comments on future oil prices. He is an oil analyst with a penchant for telling the truth rather than spinning either overly optimistic or pessimistic stories about peak oil (the day we will have used half the total global supply).
Last week he dropped into CNBC. Among other things, he anticipates $300 a barrel, though he says it is not possible to know just when this will be the case. But most important in this video, I think, is that he puts to rest the ridiculous notion that Alberta tar sands are somehow the answer to future energy needs. Take a minute to watch.
Update: Oil closed just short of $108 today, March 10, 2008.
1 Bill Harris on Mar 11th, 2008 at 6:06 am
Thanks, Glen. I just found Matt Simmons’ collection of papers and speeches over the weekend; he appears to have some good material. Note the solution he suggests, as highlighted in my comment: “Travel less.”
2 Michael Ferguson on Mar 12th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Google CERA and Daniel Yergin. He is more or less correct, but actually conservative for several reasons. To quote, “This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil,” says CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin. “Each time — whether it was the ‘gasoline famine’ at the end of WWI or the ‘permanent shortage’ of the 1970s — technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline. There’s no reason to think that technology is finished this time.”
Additionally, this is primarily a China and India problem. Western Civilization is actually on a path to ‘energy independence.’
It is possible that oil could go very high in the short term, but bet on it trending toward $55 per barrel over the next twenty years.
3 JdR on Apr 8th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
$55 a barrel?
Unfortunately, declining existing reserves are making it harder for increases in new production to create a net gain in overall global production. And with voracious demand from Asia, Russia, the Gulf States, etc.., things are bound to stay tight. Economies are having to adjust to the ever increasing price of crude oil. I doubt it will slip below $100 for very long - I don’t think I’ll ever see $60.00 oil again.