This just hit the web at OilDrum, news of new future scenarios from Shell. Known for their scenario work in the past, the CEO of Shell, Jeroen van der Veer, sent this memo to Shell employees, and released it on the Shell website.

What does it say? That the energy picture is changing rapidly. Two alternate scenarios, “scramble” and “blueprints” take us to the same future:

Regardless of which route we choose, the world’s current predicament limits our room to maneuver. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to rising population and economic development. After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand.