Comments on: Outlook 2008 http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/ Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:31:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Mark Safford http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-33242 Mark Safford Thu, 24 Jan 2008 02:48:29 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-33242 Hi Glen - I watched your Outlook 2008 with great interest. As always, you have a way of synthesizing and summarizing an array of trends in a manner that makes them coherent and meaningful. I would offer two specific comments on aspects of your report. First, you are right on target with your observation that the oil producing nations are also becoming much bigger oil users. One key reason is that countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia keep the price of gasoline ridiculously low as a form of social welfare/social calming for their populations. It would not surprise me if at least some of these nations started taking more determined steps in 2008 to limit this extravagant use of their very valuable resource by letting the domestic price of gasoline rise to much higher levels. Not only would the government's revenues increase, but they would have more oil to export. Second, you are I believe correct in predicting that a John McCain Presidency in 2009 would be a setback for many progressive causes. However, McCain is the most environmentally-sensitive of the Republican candidates by far. He has assumed the same perspective as Teddy Roosevelt did in seeing us as "stewards" of the Earth with a responsibility to protect it for future generations. He believes global warming is man-made, real, and a threat, and he supports reductions in carbon emissions. If he were elected he could very well surprise us with his policies in energy and the environment. (And I do not say this as a McCain supporter - let's say that to me he is by far the Republican whose election in 2008 would worry me the least.) Hi Glen -

I watched your Outlook 2008 with great interest. As always, you have a way of synthesizing and summarizing an array of trends in a manner that makes them coherent and meaningful. I would offer two specific comments on aspects of your report.

First, you are right on target with your observation that the oil producing nations are also becoming much bigger oil users. One key reason is that countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia keep the price of gasoline ridiculously low as a form of social welfare/social calming for their populations. It would not surprise me if at least some of these nations started taking more determined steps in 2008 to limit this extravagant use of their very valuable resource by letting the domestic price of gasoline rise to much higher levels. Not only would the government’s revenues increase, but they would have more oil to export.

Second, you are I believe correct in predicting that a John McCain Presidency in 2009 would be a setback for many progressive causes. However, McCain is the most environmentally-sensitive of the Republican candidates by far. He has assumed the same perspective as Teddy Roosevelt did in seeing us as “stewards” of the Earth with a responsibility to protect it for future generations. He believes global warming is man-made, real, and a threat, and he supports reductions in carbon emissions. If he were elected he could very well surprise us with his policies in energy and the environment. (And I do not say this as a McCain supporter - let’s say that to me he is by far the Republican whose election in 2008 would worry me the least.)

]]> By: The Meaning of Obama at Futurist.com http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31754 The Meaning of Obama at Futurist.com Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:02:48 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31754 [...] In my previous post, Outlook 2008, when discussing “Population and Venture Capital,” I pointed out that in 2008 Venture investors were increasingly looking to the next, next generation, the Millennials. It is a generation shift in entrepreneurship. [...] [...] In my previous post, Outlook 2008, when discussing “Population and Venture Capital,” I pointed out that in 2008 Venture investors were increasingly looking to the next, next generation, the Millennials. It is a generation shift in entrepreneurship. [...]

]]> By: Tim http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31312 Tim Sat, 05 Jan 2008 23:46:56 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31312 People speak of the environment and "doing" something but action just for action sake is pointless. Let's take hybrid cars. Yes, the emit less CO2 and use less gas. But there's also a pollution downside, in the manufacture of the batteries, energy used in shipping costs to bring components together to manufacture, battery disposal or reprosessing at the end of their useful life, etc. So the simplistic version is "Well I have a hybrid, I'm doing good." Perhaps not so much. Look at my home state of Kansas. The govenor just recently denied a new coal plant construction. Too much pollution. Okay, fine. In this same area, they are wanting to put up wind farms. But wait, no can't do that--the environmentalists have halted most of these projects-- say they are an eyesore, they disrupt bird migration, etc. So we can't use coal, we can't use petroleum, we can't use wind farms---exactly where would they like us to get power? I have no problem in wanting to be environmentally friendly, but you can't deny all options in doing so. Most of the plans put forward for "global warming" have little basis in fact regarding their efficacy and appear to me to be a lot of feel good measures with little substance. I suppose we have to start somewhere but good intentions alone are usually not helpful. People speak of the environment and “doing” something but action just for action sake is pointless. Let’s take hybrid cars. Yes, the emit less CO2 and use less gas. But there’s also a pollution downside, in the manufacture of the batteries, energy used in shipping costs to bring components together to manufacture, battery disposal or reprosessing at the end of their useful life, etc. So the simplistic version is “Well I have a hybrid, I’m doing good.” Perhaps not so much. Look at my home state of Kansas. The govenor just recently denied a new coal plant construction. Too much pollution. Okay, fine. In this same area, they are wanting to put up wind farms. But wait, no can’t do that–the environmentalists have halted most of these projects– say they are an eyesore, they disrupt bird migration, etc. So we can’t use coal, we can’t use petroleum, we can’t use wind farms—exactly where would they like us to get power? I have no problem in wanting to be environmentally friendly, but you can’t deny all options in doing so. Most of the plans put forward for “global warming” have little basis in fact regarding their efficacy and appear to me to be a lot of feel good measures with little substance. I suppose we have to start somewhere but good intentions alone are usually not helpful.

]]> By: Glen Hiemstra http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31179 Glen Hiemstra Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:52:44 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31179 Michael, I took a quick look at the blog site you suggest, excellent discussion of visions for 2050 there. The comments you garnered are interesting. I am sure you read Jim Kunstler's blog, at http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/ He has his own review of 2008 up there now, and of course his perspective is that the "long emergency" will overwhelm our resilience. Much to do, but little time. As for the wildcards (Iraq, McCain), as I emphasize in the video I do think they are wild. But, you never know. Michael,

I took a quick look at the blog site you suggest, excellent discussion of visions for 2050 there. The comments you garnered are interesting.

I am sure you read Jim Kunstler’s blog, at http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/ He has his own review of 2008 up there now, and of course his perspective is that the “long emergency” will overwhelm our resilience.

Much to do, but little time.

As for the wildcards (Iraq, McCain), as I emphasize in the video I do think they are wild. But, you never know.

]]> By: Michael http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31176 Michael Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:49:11 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008/#comment-31176 Calm in Iraq and McCain for the nominee? Wildcards indeed. I agree that climate is the biggest issue that won't get enough attention this year. Over at climateprogress.org they are trying to imagine the future, too. Up to 2050. Politics and the environment are the big trends. http://climateprogress.org/2007/11/30/global-warming-prediction-presidential-politics/ Calm in Iraq and McCain for the nominee? Wildcards indeed.

I agree that climate is the biggest issue that won’t get enough attention this year.

Over at climateprogress.org they are trying to imagine the future, too. Up to 2050. Politics and the environment are the big trends.

http://climateprogress.org/2007/11/30/global-warming-prediction-presidential-politics/

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