Archive for January, 2008
21st Century Oil Scenarios from Shell
This just hit the web at OilDrum, news of new future scenarios from Shell. Known for their scenario work in the past, the CEO of Shell, Jeroen van der Veer, sent this memo to Shell employees, and released it on the Shell website. What does it say? That the energy picture is changing rapidly. Two [...]
Full StoryFuture Proof Your College
I want to alert those of you interested in the future of higher education to a new book, Future Proof Your College, by Michael Heppell. (I see it is currently unavailable at Amazon U.S., a few copies at Amazon.UK – more on the way.) This book primarily consists of edited interviews with a variety of [...]
Full StoryEconomic Meltdown – How Far and What to Do?
Last September (2007) I had occasion to keynote the annual Housing Conference in Washington State. In that speech I suggested to a skeptical audience of housing, building, and real estate officials that the debt problem then appearing was deeper and more structural than currently accepted. The economic indicators, stock market performance, and general near panic [...]
Full StoryThe Future of Communication and Conversation
This episode of Future Talks is on the question of what is the future of communication and converstion. The proliferation of communication technologies is influencing not only what it means to be in touch with our networks of family, friends, and colleagues, but also with ourselves. In observing the ways in which communication—and its more [...]
Full StoryThe Writers’ Strike: a Word
The American Film Institute identified the writers’ strike as the most significant industry event of 2007. Posing questions about how an audience will “receive its storytelling in the years to come, and how creators will be paid for their work,” the Institute’s focus points up two compelling questions tied into the explosion of digital media: [...]
Full StoryUser Generated Content in the New Media
This episode of Future Talks is on the question of what is about User Generated Content, or the people formerly known as consumers. In the Future Talks online TV series, international futurists Glen Hiemstra and Gerd Leonhard engage in a conversation with Ralph Simon as he interviews them about the trends shaping the future of [...]
Full StoryHow Could the Polls be so Wrong
Larry Johnson, who usually comments on security matters, has probably the best comment on tonights Presidential primary results, and how the polls could be so wrong. So we are in for a long race, more like the political campaigns of my youth in 1968 and 1972. Still, it adds up to a strong national desire [...]
Full StorySun is Rising
In case you missed the news, Nanosolar shipped its first commercial thin-film, printed solar cells in December 2007, to a purchaser in Germany. This is a milestone in the production of solar, in which solar power becomes cheaper than coal. Not only that, but the Nanosolar production plant nearing completion will produce 430 megawatts of [...]
Full StoryThe Meaning of Obama
Just a few hours before the New Hampshire vote count begins, it is a safe bet that Barack Obama will win, probably by a comfortable margin. What does it mean? It is early, and the final nomination results are yet to be determined, but a central theme it seems to me is generational change. In [...]
Full StoryOutlook 2008
Here is my outlook for 2008, recorded December 21, 2007. Overview – 2008 will be a year that feels like a whip-saw. Promising innovations. Economic turmoil. Large events The Economy 2008 – Paradoxes 2008 will be one of paradox, innovation balanced by turmoil. Because of the tremendous interconnectivity of researchers, the availability of money for [...]
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