A number of the futurist email lists I belong to have been full of questions about how optimistic we should be about the future. Some of the discussion is about whether Ray Kurzweil’s predictions will come true as soon as he thinks (will we have artificial intelligence in 2030 or 2050 or 2070?). Others are about whether or not humanity will have the medical breakthroughs necessary for long, healthy lives before it is too late for us as individuals.
I don’t think these questions matter much. I mean, they are intellectually interesting. The answers will matter in the future, but can’t be seen clearly in the present. Perhaps there is a more fundamental question: Will the future be better than the present?
First, let’s start more simply. Is this time, February 2007, better than the past? I think so. I like a time when much of the world’s knowledge is at my fingertips. I like being able to travel around the world, and the ability to send an email to almost anyone in it. Oh, today’s not perfect – I don’t like wars, for example. But I can’t easily pinpoint a past where there weren’t any. It feels like they are getting more dangerous. But really, World War II was worse – imagine being a soldier on the Maginot line. We haven’t had World War III, and maybe we won’t. I hope with all my heart we’ll have less and less war, and then none. The light of a world full of little privacy shines on most ill deeds, whether done by governments or individuals. And that might bring peace, someday. So yes, I think today is better than yesterday.
I talk to a lot of audiences about a lot of topics. As a people, we’re not very sure about tomorrow. We worry about what we will leave our kids. Deficits. Dangers inherent in genetic engineering (of people and food). Global warming. Pollution. I could make a bigger list, but we all know the bogeymen of today, and we all know some are real. We even know yesterday’s fears (such as nuclear proliferation and eventual war) are still partly untamed. Our famous scientists (like Stephen Hawking) talk about the need to flee before we destroy our home. So we’re at least a little afraid of the future.
Being afraid of the future will help make it better. It keeps us cautious. The things we have today that make the world small (the internet, the light of accountability) may help keep it safe. Knowledge is growing, and so is access to knowledge. In the past, as knowledge shone on various civilizations, they generally got better. Recently, knowledge and education have helped third world countries develop stronger economies and more social equalities. India’s rise is at least partly related to a commitment to education. Education is one of the biggest tools, worldwide, in the fight against AIDS. I’m willing to bet connectivity and knowledge will continue to increase, and to create better places and lives. So my hope – no better than that, my expectation – is that the future will be better than today. There is reason for optimism to temper our fear and lift our hearts.
1 Wes Duck on Apr 28th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
I am optimistic about the future, for one simple reason: the breathtaking increase in rate and volume of mankind’s knowledge. It’s hard not to be hopeful based on this alone – it gives us too much ammo, we would have to be even less surefooted than we are now for this not to eventually help us a great deal in many of our current troubles.
We take it for granted, but I am continually, quietly amazed that we can even conceive and develop all this knowledge, with a brain that until recently (in geologic terms) just got us from tree limb to tree limb. It’s astounding, when you ponder that.
Here’s the thing, though. To appreciate this knowledge, it helps immensely to be well educated. Some of the really interesting advances are subtle, and much of the media coverage lopsided to bad news, so being able to parse these out and put them in the bigger picture is necessary – education (and an open mind) are critical tools in that process. So the future is more optimistic to the educated than the uneducated, I would suggest. That’s always been true, but now more than ever.
When I think things are getting bad, I always think about Galileo and his discovery of the Jovian satellites. I think, what would he give to see the images of those, taken by Voyager and others, that we take for granted? I’ll bet any favored appendage, probably his whole life for one glimpse of those close-up images of the bodies that he discovered, that were to remain points of light for him, but are complex worlds to us.
In this era, we are rich beyond belief in our knowledge of the world and beyond. We take it for granted, and most of us ignore most of that knowledge, or glimpse it only briefly, leaving much of the richness on the table. And knowledge is power as never before. It can lead to understanding, and nothing is more important, I would suggest. Money, power, are trifles in comparison. Although I am neither, any rich or powerful person that’s worth his salt will tell you that.
I have a deep love of history, but the state of our knowledge is the main reason I would prefer living in this time, as opposed to any time in the past, no matter how interesting or glorious.