Comments on: Beyond the phony war and missing enemy http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/ Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:12:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Derrick Smalls http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-42468 Derrick Smalls Thu, 27 Mar 2008 19:39:11 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-42468 I am a little confused with this piece. Quoting a couple of international affairs experts is not the same thing as evidence. Your argument is by no means the prevailing view in international affairs circles, and the articles you cited are by no means accepted without dispute. To say it is a phony war betrays the fact that you don't understand the threat. 9/11 was a wake-up call to a threat that already existed. In fact, Al-Qaeda had been at war with us for some time (Bin Laden's declaration of war on the US was printed in 1996). The real threat is that weapons of mass destruction (radiological, chemical, biological, or nuclear) could fall into the hands of terrorists. If you read the writings of jihadi leaders, (I highly recommend this site for those who are interested http://www1.nefafoundation.org/documents-aqstatements.html) it becomes clear that we are at war with people who consider slaughtering innocent "infidels" to be a sacred act. In other words, it is a safe assumption that if Al-Qaeda or another jihadi organization acquires WMD, they will use it. I'm sure you know all this, but the frightening part is that this is a serious possibility. Whether one agreed with the invasion of Iraq is to some extent now irrelevant, if we leave before the Iraqi's can control their country, AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq, now the Islamic State of Iraq) will use it as a base. Furthermore, in the jihadis will claim Iraq as a defeat of the Americans. The invasion definitely contributed to a rise in insurgents and jihadis, but the propaganda victory from a US retreat will do so even further. But regardless of Iraq, this is the main flaw, as I see it, in this article: "And global terrorists are generally disconnected, local, and focused on private, immediate and historical grievences. The idea that there is a vast global terrorist conspirancy is much more fantasy and wishful thinking sold for PR purposes than reality." This argument fails on all levels. Private? What "private" grievance does a Saudi Arabian boy have for traveling to Iraq and taking up arms against US troops? (I might add, troops from the same country which prevented Saddam from invading his own). Immediate? I'm not quite sure what you mean here. Certainly some of the violence in Iraq is linked to the instability and lack of security in the immediate situation. But this is just one front. Again, what about the jihadis who flock to Iraq or Afghanistan? As for historical grievances, there is some truth to this. But does it matter? Hitler rose to power because of historical grievances. So what? History cannot be changed, and if you think that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute would pacify Bin Laden, then you have no understand of the man or the movement. I would strongly urge you to do some reading of jihadi documents and communications. There is a global jihadi war being waged, and pretending like it is not there will not make it disappear. It is an asymmetric war, but the fact that we have far more economic and military power does not mean that we are not in danger. I am a little confused with this piece. Quoting a couple of international affairs experts is not the same thing as evidence. Your argument is by no means the prevailing view in international affairs circles, and the articles you cited are by no means accepted without dispute. To say it is a phony war betrays the fact that you don’t understand the threat. 9/11 was a wake-up call to a threat that already existed. In fact, Al-Qaeda had been at war with us for some time (Bin Laden’s declaration of war on the US was printed in 1996). The real threat is that weapons of mass destruction (radiological, chemical, biological, or nuclear) could fall into the hands of terrorists. If you read the writings of jihadi leaders, (I highly recommend this site for those who are interested http://www1.nefafoundation.org/documents-aqstatements.html) it becomes clear that we are at war with people who consider slaughtering innocent “infidels” to be a sacred act. In other words, it is a safe assumption that if Al-Qaeda or another jihadi organization acquires WMD, they will use it. I’m sure you know all this, but the frightening part is that this is a serious possibility. Whether one agreed with the invasion of Iraq is to some extent now irrelevant, if we leave before the Iraqi’s can control their country, AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq, now the Islamic State of Iraq) will use it as a base. Furthermore, in the jihadis will claim Iraq as a defeat of the Americans. The invasion definitely contributed to a rise in insurgents and jihadis, but the propaganda victory from a US retreat will do so even further.
But regardless of Iraq, this is the main flaw, as I see it, in this article:

“And global terrorists are generally disconnected, local, and focused on private, immediate and historical grievences. The idea that there is a vast global terrorist conspirancy is much more fantasy and wishful thinking sold for PR purposes than reality.”

This argument fails on all levels. Private? What “private” grievance does a Saudi Arabian boy have for traveling to Iraq and taking up arms against US troops? (I might add, troops from the same country which prevented Saddam from invading his own). Immediate? I’m not quite sure what you mean here. Certainly some of the violence in Iraq is linked to the instability and lack of security in the immediate situation. But this is just one front. Again, what about the jihadis who flock to Iraq or Afghanistan? As for historical grievances, there is some truth to this. But does it matter? Hitler rose to power because of historical grievances. So what? History cannot be changed, and if you think that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian dispute would pacify Bin Laden, then you have no understand of the man or the movement. I would strongly urge you to do some reading of jihadi documents and communications. There is a global jihadi war being waged, and pretending like it is not there will not make it disappear. It is an asymmetric war, but the fact that we have far more economic and military power does not mean that we are not in danger.

]]> By: Glen Hiemstra http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-5159 Glen Hiemstra Tue, 17 Apr 2007 20:05:24 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-5159 Les, thanks for the comments and question. My understanding is that the difficulty of acquiring and even more so of making nuclear weapons, even dirty bombs, is quite great. Not impossible in an imaginable future, but not easy at all. At the same time, suppose one such event were to happen. The question of its impact would be totally about how humanity responds. Would it be a focused, non-fearful, and deliberate response? Would it be panic and chaos? Would certain "leaders" try to exploit the moment to consolidate their power? These are the questions. A nuclear event is not the end of time, unless we decide that it is. Les, thanks for the comments and question. My understanding is that the difficulty of acquiring and even more so of making nuclear weapons, even dirty bombs, is quite great. Not impossible in an imaginable future, but not easy at all. At the same time, suppose one such event were to happen. The question of its impact would be totally about how humanity responds. Would it be a focused, non-fearful, and deliberate response? Would it be panic and chaos? Would certain “leaders” try to exploit the moment to consolidate their power? These are the questions. A nuclear event is not the end of time, unless we decide that it is.

]]> By: Les Mace http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-5148 Les Mace Tue, 17 Apr 2007 15:39:02 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-5148 Congratulations on an excellent and informative website. I essentially agree with all of your points about terrorism in that it is not now a major threat to civilization. The references you cite are excellent reminders of how this apparent threat has been grossly overestimated. However, even knowing the complexity of constructing and then delivering a nuclear (or "dirty") bomb targeted at some major international city, what are the chances that eventually a terrorist group could actually successfully pull that off? That single event could somewhat alter the suggestion that nuclear terrorism would not result in global chaos boarding on an "existential" threat. (Of course, the same could be said for the same event occuring as a result of any existing nuclear/biological-equipped nation recklessly if sufficiently preturbed resorting to the same act.) Congratulations on an excellent and informative website. I essentially agree with all of your points about terrorism in that it is not now a major threat to civilization. The references you cite are excellent reminders of how this apparent threat has been grossly overestimated.

However, even knowing the complexity of constructing and then delivering a nuclear (or “dirty”) bomb targeted at some major international city, what are the chances that eventually a terrorist group could actually successfully pull that off? That single event could somewhat alter the suggestion that nuclear terrorism would not result in global chaos boarding on an “existential” threat. (Of course, the same could be said for the same event occuring as a result of any existing nuclear/biological-equipped nation recklessly if sufficiently preturbed resorting to the same act.)

]]> By: Glen Hiemstra http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-5 Glen Hiemstra Sat, 07 Oct 2006 15:51:40 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-5 Francis, I can\'t give you particular advice on how to invest for next economic catharsis. I am not familiar with F. Hayek. What we do know is that a big energy transition is coming, and within that will be many opportunities. On the larger picture, it does at times seem that we are working harder to keep a house of cards from collapsing. Francis, I can\’t give you particular advice on how to invest for next economic catharsis. I am not familiar with F. Hayek. What we do know is that a big energy transition is coming, and within that will be many opportunities. On the larger picture, it does at times seem that we are working harder to keep a house of cards from collapsing.

]]> By: Francis T. Nicosia http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-4 Francis T. Nicosia Fri, 06 Oct 2006 09:43:37 +0000 http://www.futurist.com/2006/09/25/beyond-the-phony-war-and-missing-enemy/#comment-4 Someday our country's buerocracy is going to be so hugh that our economy won't be able to support it.In order to pay the debt,the gov't will devalue the dollar and cause inflation.We won't be able to buy or borrow are way out of the next one. F. Hayek said the longer the boom the longer the bust. I would like to know how to invest for the next economic catharsis. F. Nicosia Someday our country’s buerocracy is going to be so hugh that our economy won’t be able to support it.In order to pay the debt,the gov’t will devalue the dollar and cause inflation.We won’t be able to buy or borrow are way out of the next one. F. Hayek said the longer the boom the longer the bust. I would like to know how to invest for the next economic catharsis. F. Nicosia

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